MO/KS/AR/OK 2025-2026 Winter Discussion

[The Ole Bucket]

Windchill is already subzero here in SEMO. Extremely dry though.

[JoMo]

6 minutes ago, MUWX said:

I am just going to keep telling myself that models no longer matter because these high res models are really under whelming. 

I think 2nd system might save it. 18z NAM is ejecting it out farther west. 18z HRRR was pretty robust as well. 

[RocketWX]

I'll be very curious to read ICT's afternoon Forecast Discussion and their thoughts on the 2nd system and it's potential impact on this area. 

[JoMo]

Weather is so strange sometimes. This is IMBY

2.3" of 10:1 on the 18z NAM with first system... On the 12z NAM it was 6.7"

Somehow ended up with 9.3" of 10:1 on 18z NAM with both systems. On the 12z NAM it was 11". 

Not too bad despite "losing" 4.4" with the first system not hitting.

15.5 Kuchera on 18z NAM and 15.4 Kuchera on 12z NAM so gained 0.1 somehow. 

[RocketWX]

9 minutes ago, RocketWX said:

I'll be very curious to read ICT's afternoon Forecast Discussion and their thoughts on the 2nd system and it's potential impact on this area. 

Update: They already posted it. They definitely call out that the main axis of snowfall has shifted south and east for Saturday night. Now calling for 5-8" for SC KS with Southeast KS approaching 10". Of note 4-6" of that is with the first wave, so they're leaning toward the 2nd wave having minimal impact here. I'll take it, but feels like we'll just miss out on the real fun that south and east of here will get. 

[MoWeatherguy]

18z GFS has amped up snowfall some from its 12z run.  

[stormdragonwx]

TSA seems to be jumping on what the GFS is saying too. They upped the totals in the WSW text to 8-14" with local 18" totals. Blowing and drifting snow also expected. Wonder if they will issue Blizzard Warnings? My area has never had one. https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=TSA&wwa=winter storm warning

[MUWX]

12 minutes ago, stormdragonwx said:

TSA seems to be jumping on what the GFS is saying too. They upped the totals in the WSW text to 8-14" with local 18" totals. Blowing and drifting snow also expected. Wonder if they will issue Blizzard Warnings? My area has never had one. https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=TSA&wwa=winter storm warning

I dont think this storm will bring strong enough sustained winds to see blizzard warnings, but could see some blizzardlike conditions.