MO/KS/AR/OK 2025-2026 Winter Discussion

[MUWX]

1 minute ago, rockchalk83 said:

There was? 

The 18z still pumped out close to one foot here in Kansas: 

The drop off is bigger in Missouri. Went from 14-15 inches to 9-10 inches. Still a good storm but certainly a step back. 

[rockchalk83]

Here is the Wichita NWS office's forecast:

[rockchalk83]

Just now, MUWX said:

The drop off is bigger in Missouri. Went from 14-15 inches to 9-10 inches. Still a good storm but certainly a step back. 

That's fair. Forgive me, but I haven't been looking up there.

I've been too busy rooting for the NAM. Haha

[The Waterboy]

Not sure what to make of it, if anything, but the 12z Euro and 18z Ukie don’t have the 6-8 hour dry break between the two systems.  
 

Also, the 21z RAP has wave 1 heavier amounts in S. KS and the very heavy amounts in West Central AR/Eastern OK.  5-6” from Bentonville to Joplin with much higher amounts from Fayetteville south.  

[MUWX]

7 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

Not sure what to make of it, if anything, but the 12z Euro and 18z Ukie don’t have the 6-8 hour dry break between the two systems.  
 

Also, the 21z RAP has wave 1 heavier amounts in S. KS and the very heavy amounts in West Central AR/Eastern OK.  5-6” from Bentonville to Joplin with much higher amounts from Fayetteville south.  

Nearly identical to the GFS. I assume this is going to give mets some serious pause on the super high totals in those areas. 

[Breck150]

9 minutes ago, MUWX said:

Nearly identical to the GFS. I assume this is going to give mets some serious pause on the super high totals in those areas. 

Pretty sure the RAP uses the same data as the GFS so this makes sense. It runs hourly to provide more up to date information. If it was any model besides the GFS showing this then I would be more concerned. Lets see what the 18z Euro shows. If it goes south then I might need a beer. Regardless if you would have told anyone in this forum 3 weeks ago we would be looking at a 4-8 inch storm 24 hours out ( yes, I know these are low just using them as reference ) I would say everyone in here would be thrilled. 

[rockchalk83]

This is the 19z 72-hour mean snowfall off the National Blend of Models. There has been a bump up of this as we've gone through the day. 

The red area is snow totals of 18-22 inches, orange is 12-18. 

[JoMo]

18z Euro AIFS is pretty similar on where the heaviest band of snow is from the 12z. Overall there is a bit of a compaction on the northern side (less QPF) of the system as a whole. Not sure if this means more members were farther south or just drier though. 

[andyhb]

Monstrous storm for OK on the 18z Euro, particularly the I-44 corridor. 1.2-1.5" liquid for both metros with temps in the single digits on the backside.

18z EPS is also extremely impressive.

[rockchalk83]

7 minutes ago, andyhb said:

Monstrous storm for OK on the 18z Euro, particularly the I-44 corridor. 1.2-1.5" liquid for both metros with temps in the single digits on the backside.

The huge upshot to all this is that there will be some significant drought relief. 

[Breck150]

4 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said:

The huge upshot to all this is that there will be some significant drought relief. 

We need the moisture bad. I am very thankful for that. Any other people in here have cattle or will I be the only one chopping ice come this weekend?

FYI I have been lurking on here for many years and finally reset my password to be able to comment again. So while I have not commented I have mentally been fully engaged in all discussions lol. 

[stormdragonwx]

Yeah it is kinda wild how some of us are disappointed in reductions of possibly getting 6-10 or 4-8 inches considering how lackluster this winter has been up to this point. Lol

[MoWeatherguy]

14 minutes ago, stormdragonwx said:

Yeah it is kinda wild how some of us are disappointed in reductions of possibly getting 6-10 or 4-8 inches considering how lackluster this winter has been up to this point. Lol

My honest expectations are about 6-8 inches here in Benton Co AR. Anything on top of that is all icing on the cake.  8 would be the biggest I've seen in about 10 yrs.

[MUWX]

Fairly substantial southern shift on the HRRR

[MoWeatherguy]

0z NAM still laying the hammer down.

[MUWX]

Borderline scary nam run for NE OK and SW MO. 

[JoMo]

3 minutes ago, MUWX said:

Borderline scary nam run for NE OK and SW MO. 

Only 23" of snow here and 25" in Springfield. NAM being the NAM. 

[MoWeatherguy]

10 minutes ago, JoMo said:

Only 23" of snow here and 25" in Springfield. NAM being the NAM. 

Yah let's cut that in half I'll take it 

[schoeppeya]

All of the 0z suite coming in with higher totals this evening as we are less than 24 hours from the show starting... really thinking 12-20" is possible in Tulsa.

[rockchalk83]

This is the 01z 72-hour 50th percentile snowfall off the National Blend of Models. This is a significant bump up from the 19z run. 

The red area is 24-30 inches NW of OKC, the reddish orange area is snow totals of 18-24 inches, orange is 12-18. 

Goodness. 

[MUWX]

3 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said:

This is the 01z 72-hour 50th percentile snowfall off the National Blend of Models. This is a significant bump up from the 19z run. 

The red area is 24-30 inches NW of OKC, the reddish orange area is snow totals of 18-24 inches, orange is 12-18. 

Goodness. 

Absolutely unreal. I honestly never thought I’d see something like that here. 

[MoWeatherguy]

1 minute ago, MUWX said:

Absolutely unreal. I honestly never thought I’d see something like that here. 

Is this crap really real or are the models just all reading something wrong??

[rockchalk83]

5 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said:

Is this crap really real or are the models just all reading something wrong??

That's the million dollar question. I wonder if @andyhbor @JoMowould be able to shed some light on this? 

[NWAflizzard]

15 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said:

Is this crap really real or are the models just all reading something wrong??

I keep thinking the models will back off but they keep holding and actually upping the amounts the closer we get. Amazing!

[MUWX]

It would really be something if the GFS pulls the upset here. It’s sure sticking to its southern idea. 

[schoeppeya]

12 minutes ago, MUWX said:

It would really be something if the GFS pulls the upset here. It’s sure sticking to its southern idea. 

Its on an island and getting to a range where the cams start having more weight... its really been pretty terrible with this system since pretty early on. 

[JoMo]

18 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said:

That's the million dollar question. I wonder if @andyhbor @JoMowould be able to shed some light on this? 

I'm just along for the ride. It's just been fun having something to track. Models have their biases. In this type of situation though, you'll usually have steadier snow from persistent lift and then you'll have bands of snow with heavier amounts depending on where the various boundaries set up. For the WAA snows, if you look at the 850 MB and 700 MB temp advection maps you can see where the heavier snow sets up north of the strongest advection. It goes absolutely crazy on the NAM so that's probably why the higher amounts. The GFS/GDPS has this setup farther south and it isn't as strong. The vertical velocity will show the areas with persistent lift.

[JoMo]

Looks like the 00z Euro is going to end up farther south with the WAA precip so far. Overall bit more of a shift south but still good amounts. 

[StormChazer]

[ouamber]

Congrats to MBY on that Euro run with 21.2! Just incredible! Even my family in extreme southern OK is looking at 5-6 inches! Trying to temper my excitement...I know Lucy can always be lurking. Lol