MO/KS/AR/OK 2025-2026 Winter Discussion

[MoWeatherguy]

2 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

GFS paints the town with a significant second wave of precip on Sunday morning.

 

Nws Tulsa area in the cross hairs so far. 

[StormChazer]

A definite trend amongst the runs. looking forward to the Euro in an hour.

 

 

 

 

Canadian

06Z Euro

GFS

Icon(non-Kuchera so looks lower but isn't)

 

[SnowMan]

I am in North Texas - Celina area.  Looking forward to see how much ZR we get.

[The Waterboy]

Hot pink is my favorite color the rest of this week!   Those maps are almost unbelievable.  

[MUWX]

Wichita has expanded their watch north a couple of counties. I assume SGF will do the same shortly.

Edit: SGF added one for the whole forecast area. Most offices getting more aggressive in amounts, curious if they will continue to increase them or not, but several watches now in the 5-10" range. 

[StormChazer]

NWS Tulsa certainly getting on board with the high totals.

 

[rockchalk83]

It’s the UKMET, so proceed with caution: 

[StormChazer]

12Z Euro. Still going strong.

[MoWeatherguy]

1 minute ago, StormChazer said:

12Z Euro. Still going strong.

Looking good!

[ouamber]

This is reminding me of GHD 2011. I'm not sure why the trends are pulling this so far north. Personally, I do not want to be in the bullseye two days out, but isn't this the time when the models lose the cold air and try to say it's going to be warmer than it ends up being?

 

[JoMo]

I think the models will probably start to decrease precip amounts and come more in line with what reality will be. 

[The Ole Bucket]

Yeah feels a lot more likely that the models will factor in the strong arctic high/blocking and how dry it is and create sharper northern cutoffs than there be a temp thing going on. The cold is legit.

[stormdragonwx]

Wont lie I'm still worried about that jog north and the warm air aloft being too strong being two days out still. Really don't want an Ice storm after getting the possibility of a foot of snow. snow>ice anytime

Edit: Just saw TSA just went full tilt with widespread 8-12" now.

[JoMo]

Springfield with the somewhat useless AFD this afternoon. 18z ICON has a 20" Kuchera amount IMBY. 18z NAM was faster with kicking the system out compared to the other models and had more WAA precip farther south with the initial precip. 18z RDPS looked similar to it's 12z run. 

[RocketWX]

3 minutes ago, JoMo said:

Springfield with the somewhat useless AFD this afternoon. 18z ICON has a 20" Kuchera amount IMBY. 18z NAM was faster with kicking the system out compared to the other models and had more WAA precip farther south with the initial precip. 18z RDPS looked similar to it's 12z run. 

Yeah, I just saw that 18z ICON run. If nothing else, this storm has provided some hall of fame worthy model runs and we're within 48hrs of it getting started. Excited to see how this shakes out. 

[MUWX]

9 minutes ago, JoMo said:

Springfield with the somewhat useless AFD this afternoon. 18z ICON has a 20" Kuchera amount IMBY. 18z NAM was faster with kicking the system out compared to the other models and had more WAA precip farther south with the initial precip. 18z RDPS looked similar to it's 12z run. 

The AFD was just a listing of probabilities... nothing about what they are watching or analyzing. Really disappointing. I was hoping they would start to go a little more in depth on QPF expectations and rations... but instead we just got some really pointless percentages.  

[MUWX]

GFS is back to keeping the second wave pretty far south. Were still a long ways from locking anything in with this system.  

[stormdragonwx]

Once that Hurricane Hunter data gets fully plugged in we should know the real story by the time the 06z runs go live.

[rockchalk83]

23 minutes ago, stormdragonwx said:

Once that Hurricane Hunter data gets fully plugged in we should know the real story by the time the 06z runs go live.

Should be with 00z data, unless I'm mistaken

[The Waterboy]

Does anyone have the 18z Euro map?

[MUWX]

7 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

Does anyone have the 18z Euro map?

Maps I saw on Twitter were a pretty big step down for most. Still a big hit for most of northern Arkansas though. 

[Poimen]

14 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

Does anyone have the 18z Euro map?

https://x.com/bam_weather/status/2014120141697769771

[rockchalk83]

57 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

Does anyone have the 18z Euro map?

[stormdragonwx]

IDK about being a step down but a widespread 8-10" maintaining all likelihood is still impressive.

[rockchalk83]

This is the 50th percentile 72-hour snowfall off the 19z National Blend of Models. It takes into account the entire non-AI model suite and is what forecasters with the NWS have been using as part of their watch/warning decision process.  

[NWAflizzard]

Saw this on Twitter. Interested to see if it changes anything. 

[JoMo]

Every NAM run is like a wild adventure because it's so different from the previous run. 

[MUWX]

3 minutes ago, JoMo said:

Every NAM run is like a wild adventure because it's so different from the previous run. 

Essentially two major snow storms in a 36-48 hour period this run. Madness. 

[The Waterboy]

Had the NAM gone out 6-12 more hours most of us would have ended with 15-18”.  

[MUWX]

1 minute ago, The Waterboy said:

Had the NAM gone out 6-12 more hours most of us would have ended with 15-18”.  

Assuming higher than 10-1 ratios we’re probably close to that through 84 hours.