October 2025 Discussion and Obs

[wdrag]

Any TC rain hits?   Any early season interior high terrain snow acc late in the month?  Do we experience above normal rainfall for October?  

[donsutherland1]

 

[LibertyBell]

47 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Don how did EWR go from the hottest September on record in September 1891 to the coldest October on record in October 1891?  Both are way out of line with NYC lol.

[donsutherland1]

18 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don how did EWR go from the hottest September on record in September 1891 to the coldest October on record in October 1891?  Both are way out of line with NYC lol.

Missing dates. I have redone the file. I had forgotten to exclude months with missing days.

 

[donsutherland1]

September 16-30, 2025 is on track to finish with 0.47" rainfall for Central Park. Since 1869, there have been 25 cases with 0.50" or less rainfall during the second half of September. Among those cases, 60% went on to have a drier than normal October while 40% went on to have a wetter than normal October.

The latest CFSv2 monthly forecast shows a drier to much drier than normal October:

The latest ECMWF weeklies also show a drier than normal start to October:

 

CPC's 6-10-day precipitation forecast also favors drier than normal conditions:

However, its monthly forecast from September 18th indicates equal chances of above or below normal precipitation. 

Finally, of the 8 years with mean temperatures of 70° or above during the second half of September coupled with < 1.00" rainfall, 75% were followed by a drier than normal October. The two exceptions were 2005 and 2019.

All said, the odds lean toward a drier than normal October, but that isn't cast in stone.

 

[SACRUS]

 

 

57 / 41 sunny.  NE flow keeps it cooler the next 42 hours.   Much warmer Fri - Tue (10/7) more 80s for many.  Looks like Sun - Tuesday are the warmest days.   Drops back towards normal / above beyond there.  

10/1 - 10/2 :  Below normal - cooler NE flow
10/3 - 10/7 :  Warmer to much warmer than normal
10/8 - beyond :   near / slightly above normal overall

 

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR:  85 (1986)
NYC: 88 (1927)
LGA:  87 (1950)
JFK: 85 (1986)


Lows;

EWR: 35 (1947) * very cold fall that year 1947
NYC: 36 (1947)
LGA: 39 (1947)
JFK: 41 (1992)


Historical:


 

1752 - The second severe hurricane in two weeks hit the Carolinas. The Onslow County Courthouse was destroyed along with all its records, and Beacon Island disappeared. (David Ludlum)

1844: Through the 7th, a major hurricane swept over Jamaica, Cuba and Nassau and the Bahamas. According to early hurricane researcher William Redfield, the storm "exhibited an amount of injury and destruction such as is rarely known in the annals of commerce." 158 vessels were wrecked and 2,546 houses were destroyed along the- Cuban coast. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1890: The weather service is first identified as a civilian agency when Congress, at the request of President Benjamin Harrison, passes an act transferring the Signal Service’s meteorological responsibilities to the newly-created U.S. Weather Bureau in the Department of Agriculture.

1893 - The second great hurricane of the 1893 season hit the Mississippi Delta Region drowning more than 1000 persons. (David Ludlum)

1893: On this day, the village of Caminadaville, Louisiana, was destroyed by a massive hurricane. Caminadaville was a vibrant fishing community in the late 19th century, located on Cheniere Caminada, adjacent to Grand Isle in coastal Jefferson Parish in Louisiana. It took five days for the news of this devastating hurricane to reach New Orleans. 

 

1938: Grannis and Okay, Arkansas set an all-time high-temperature record for October for Arkansas with 105 degrees.

1954: On October 1st Boston, Massachusetts had a minimum temperature of 69 °F the warmest low temperature. This is also the highest minimum on Boston's records for October. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events)
 

 

1958: NASA officially begins operations on October 1st, 1958. 

1976: A ridge of high pressure brought record highs to parts of the Midwest. Locations reporting their warmest October temperatures included: Hatfield, WI: 94°, Preston, MN: 92° (also latest occurrence of 90 in a year), Neillsville, WI: 92°, Caledonia, MN: 91°, and Jump River, WI: 87°. Other daily record highs included: La Crosse, WI: 92°, Des Moines, IA: 92°, Kansas City, MO: 92°, Madison, WI: 90 °F. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

1977: While an F3 tornado traveled less than one-mile through Montfort Heights or the greater Cincinnati area, it destroyed 12 homes and damaged 15 others. There were 17 injuries. 

 

1986: Heavy rainfall totals produced saturated soil conditions across parts of Oklahoma beginning the previous day. Conditions worsened across the area when more torrential rain fell during the first four days of October. Rainfall amounts of 6 to 10 inches were common, while 15 to 20 inch amounts were reported over north-central Oklahoma. The excessive rainfall caused most major rivers in the state to flood, requiring the evacuation of about 30,000 people from 25 towns. The floods destroyed 509 homes, damaged 3,957 others, and washed out many roads and bridges, including two bridges on I-35. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1987 - A blast of cold arctic air hit the north central U.S. An afternoon thunderstorm slickened the streets of Duluth MN with hail and snow, and later in the afternoon, strong northerly winds reached 70 mph. Unseasonably warm weather continued in the Pacific northwest. Afternoon highs of 90 degrees at Olympia WA, 92 degrees at Portland OR, and 89 degrees at Seattle WA, were records for the month of October. For Seattle WA it marked the twenty- first daily record high for the year, a record total in itself. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather across central Oklahoma and the eastern half of Texas. Thunderstorms in Texas produced softball size hail northwest of Nocona, and baseball size hail at Troy and Park Springs. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the southeastern U.S. through the daytime and evening hours. Severe thunderstorms spawned eleven tornadoes, with seven of those tornadoes in Georgia. A tornado southwest of Moultrie, GA, killed two persons and injured a dozen others. Tornadoes also injured one person north of Graceville, FL, and two persons at Bartow, GA. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1992: A strong 588 decameter heat ridge extended from the Plains to the West Coast bringing record highs. Areas reporting their warmest October temperatures included: Sheridan, WY: 92° and Billings, MT: 90°-Tied. (Ref. Wilson - Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link)

1994: Lightning hit a bow-and-arrow deer hunter, knocking him down from his 15 feet high stand near Prosperity, PA. He survived, but experienced second degree burns along with blurred vision. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA)

1998: Heavy rain fell across the Liberal area in Kansas for 24 hours with the heaviest rain falling during the morning and afternoon hours. Five to eight inches were reported with one unofficial report indicating 10 inches. Streets were flooded that had never flooded before. A local disaster was declared. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1999: A strong cold front with a Canadian blast and moisture combined to bring snow to parts of the upper Midwest. Caledonia, MN with 2 inches and La Crosse, WI with 0.3 of an inch had their earliest measurable snowfall. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2006: An extended heat ridge brought record highs to parts of the Plains. Wichita, KS recorded their hottest October day ever with 97°. Other daily record highs included: Dodge City, KS: 96°-Tied, Lincoln, NE: 94°, Kansas City, MO: 94° and Sioux City, IA: 91°-Tied.  (Ref. Wilson Wx. History

[donsutherland1]

The final CPC October 2025 Outlooks:

[jm1220]

On 9/28/2025 at 9:03 PM, donsutherland1 said:

September 16-30, 2025 is on track to finish with 0.47" rainfall for Central Park. Since 1869, there have been 25 cases with 0.50" or less rainfall during the second half of September. Among those cases, 60% went on to have a drier than normal October while 40% went on to have a wetter than normal October.

The latest CFSv2 monthly forecast shows a drier to much drier than normal October:

The latest ECMWF weeklies also show a drier than normal start to October:

 

CPC's 6-10-day precipitation forecast also favors drier than normal conditions:

However, its monthly forecast from September 18th indicates equal chances of above or below normal precipitation. 

Finally, of the 8 years with mean temperatures of 70° or above during the second half of September coupled with < 1.00" rainfall, 75% were followed by a drier than normal October. The two exceptions were 2005 and 2019.

All said, the odds lean toward a drier than normal October, but that isn't cast in stone.

 

Not looking like much of anything here rain wise for a week or more. 

[donsutherland1]

24 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Not looking like much of anything here rain wise for a week or more. 

First week of October looks very dry. A frontal passage might bring some rain early in the second week of the month, but a lot can still change by that time.

[MANDA]

Taking a break from all the warm and dry chatter for a moment it sure is nice out there this morning.  Great sleeping weather with the windows open and the blankets up.  Nice breeze with a bit of a "wind chill" going on.  Nice!  Overnight low here was 48.  Walpack, NJ was lowest I saw with an overnight low of 36, that was a notable exception.  Most NNJ cold spots were in the l/m 40's.

We now return you to our regularly scheduled program.  

[MANDA]

On 9/27/2025 at 1:36 PM, donsutherland1 said:

 

Nice stats Don.  Thanks.  Last October was brutally dry, remember that well.

[LibertyBell]

24 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Nice stats Don.  Thanks.  Last October was brutally dry, remember that well.

it was the perfect month

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Not looking like much of anything here rain wise for a week or more. 

a nice break from all the rainy months of the last few years