2025-2026 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread

[Tyler Penland]

30 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

I feel for you man. I've read through some comments and even tried to explain some things to people but they are clueless or don't want to listen. 

Eh, just ignore them. They're the same group of people that would complain if they got more than forecasted. If 15 years of social media weather and retail have taught me anything its that the dumbest people are the loudest.

[Met1985]

Just now, Tyler Penland said:

Eh, just ignore them. They're the same group of people that would complain if they got more than forecasted. If 15 years of social media weather and retail have taught me anything its that the dumbest people are the loudest.

Lol yeah pretty much this.

[WNC_Fort]

it is absolutely pouring sleet 

[BretWx]

Dumping ZR here. At 27 now. Starting to get breezy. This wedge wants to let go so bad and it's so close to doing so...

[Met1985]

8 minutes ago, BretWx said:

Dumping ZR here. At 27 now. Starting to get breezy. This wedge wants to let go so bad and it's so close to doing so...

Does it because your still in it lol.

[Met1985]

9 minutes ago, WNC_Fort said:

it is absolutely pouring sleet 

Probably the best thing.

[BretWx]

Up to 28 it's pouring like an afternoon thunderstorm. 

[BretWx]

Just now, BretWx said:

Up to 28 it's pouring like an afternoon thunderstorm. 

Trees popping all over the place now. 

[BooneWX]

The critical point for trees is extraordinarily less when wind is accompanying accrual. I think a lot of people even deep into the piedmont will learn this storm wasn’t a bust shortly. 

[BretWx]

Anyone calling this a bust ... can yeah... sounds like a warzone outside right now. 

[Met1985]

I had risen to 53 ironically during that heavy band of rain but have fallen back to 45 currently. 

[WNC_Fort]

That last batch of freezing rain really started to make an impact quickly

[AirNelson39]

The critical point for trees is extraordinarily less when wind is accompanying accrual. I think a lot of people even deep into the piedmont will learn this storm wasn’t a bust shortly. 

Looks to be mostly sleet for everyone. The entire Piedmont and foothills area was forecasted to have .5-.75” plus of freezing rain. 95% of that region has had 0 freezing rain. That’s a bust. A good one for people who want power but a bust none the less. The CAD was much stronger and deeper than modeled and precip was much less than modeled.

[Met1985]

4 minutes ago, AirNelson39 said:

Looks to be mostly sleet for everyone. The entire Piedmont and foothills area was forecasted to have .5-.75” plus of freezing rain. 95% of that region has had 0 freezing rain. That’s a bust. A good one for people who want power but a bust none the less. The CAD was much stronger and deeper than modeled and precip was much less than modeled.

A lot of busts with this storm but we are always hard to forecast for especially in dealing with a strong CAD like we have had this weekend. I don't think any model nailed down this storm. 

[wncsnow]

Weather next did the best for sure. It wasn't perfect but didnt move around like the Euro, GFS, etc. 

[Met1985]

Just now, wncsnow said:

Weather next did the best for sure. It wasn't perfect but didnt move around like the Euro, GFS, etc. 

What model is that?

[Maggie Valley Steve]

The back edge of the precipitation is here. Skies are brightening to the West of the house. Very thankful that we escaped the worst of it here in the Valley! It looks like I have a little over an inch and a half in the gage.

[BretWx]

Finally changing over here, or trying to, at 31. Every 45 seconds or so you can hear trees cracking and falling. Eerie. 

[wncsnow]

16 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

What model is that?

Its a new model by Google. Best verification scores so far

[Maggie Valley Steve]

14 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Its a new model by Google. Best verification scores so far

It's hidden behind paywalls isn't it?

[Met1985]

21 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Its a new model by Google. Best verification scores so far

You got a link? Is it on Pivitol?

[Met1985]

Fog setting in and temp steadily dropping.  Down to 42 currently. 

[wncsnow]

I don't have access. Its definitely paywall. Not sure if the public has easy access but some mets swear by it

[Met1985]

4 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I don't have access. Its definitely paywall. Not sure if the public has easy access but some mets swear by it

That helps us a lot...

[ncjoaquin]

3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I don't have access. Its definitely paywall. Not sure if the public has easy access but some mets swear by it

I read the only place you could get it was Stormvista. Take that with a grain of salt though.

[wncsnow]

6 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

That helps us a lot...

Sorry man I just see mets posting it

[Maggie Valley Steve]

5 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Sorry man I just see mets posting it

My grandma told many decades ago..."believe nothing you hear and half what you see". But that was 60 years ago before AI was even dreamed of. She was born in 1900. 

[BooneWX]

15 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

That helps us a lot...

It’s for the better. I yearn for the days when access was limited. It made tracking and following these forums more fun. Weathernext has mopped the floor with every model on earth since tropical season. It’s definitely the new king (for now). First one to sniff out this evolution of this storm and did it around day 5/6.

[Maggie Valley Steve]

16 minutes ago, ncjoaquin said:

I read the only place you could get it was Stormvista. Take that with a grain of salt though.

So paying $20 a month for the privilege to look at it. Thank you for letting us know. My days of paying anything for my weather passed when I started living on a fixed income, but that's just me.

[Moonhowl]

1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

A lot of busts with this storm but we are always hard to forecast for especially in dealing with a strong CAD like we have had this weekend. I don't think any model nailed down this storm. 

Freezing rain in the mountains is a very localized thing the models can't handle.  No doubt the strength of the CAD brought a bigger threat to higher terrain than usual.  Still surprised you had as much as as you did.  Had very little which is consistent with what I have experienced with freezing here the past couple of decades.