2025-2026 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread

[strongwxnc]

6 minutes ago, BretWx said:

Well, that just about sums it up. Hopefully there's a lot of sleet in here. Otherwise, catastrophic. 

 

 

Sitting inside the 1" total here in Rutherford. Lord 

 

 

[GoAPPS]

Any thoughts on an undermodeled CAD leading to the surface low tracking further south than modeled?

[Met1985]

12 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I think Ice Storm warning upstate, NEGA and maybe Transylvania, Henderson. Winter storm warning for foothills and western piedmont. 

Probably.  Hopefully a lot of mixing. 

[Tyler Penland]

19 minutes ago, GoAPPS said:

Any thoughts on an undermodeled CAD leading to the surface low tracking further south than modeled?

I do question the low running into the Apps a bit. Looks weird.

[acc fan]

Is the storm now a Sunday/Monday event?

[WXNewton]

1 minute ago, acc fan said:

Is the storm now a Sunday/Monday event?

Starts in Western NC early afternoon on Saturday and should spread across the state as the night goes on. Goes through out the day Sunday and ends later Sunday evening/night. As many folks have mentioned it could start several hours earlier than expected on Sat.

 

[WXNewton]

10 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:

I do question the low running into the Apps a bit. Looks weird.

I was going to go back and look, but it seems like the little storm we had last Jan, ran a low into the foot of the apps. Killed the mid-levels quickly.

[acc fan]

Ty sir.

[BretWx]

Also, to note, the WS Watches just went all the way down to Columbia. 

[BretWx]

New update to our WSW:

 

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total sleet
  accumulations up to two inches and ice accumulations between three
  tenths and three quarters of an inch possible. Winds could gust as
  high as 30 mph across the mountains.

* WHERE...Northeast Georgia, Western North Carolina, and the South
  Carolina Upstate.

* WHEN...From 7 AM EST Saturday morning through 1 PM EST Monday
  afternoon.

[Maggie Valley Steve]

For the record...

[BretWx]

Extremely confused by rain likely at 15 degrees. 

 

[Tyler Penland]

24 minutes ago, BretWx said:

Extremely confused by rain likely at 15 degrees. 

 

If you check the hourly it is probably rain through midnight, then a temperature freefall to 15 at sunrise behind the front. 

[BretWx]

[Met1985]

I suspect some in the SW mountains may be downgraded to an advisory for this weekend.  My forecast has me at 50 degrees Sunday with rain.

[calculus1]

6 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

I suspect some in the SW mountains may be downgraded to an advisory for this weekend.  My forecast has me at 50 degrees Sunday with rain.

It's amazing the power of CAD. You are almost always 10-15 degrees colder than me (if not more), and I'm going to be well below freezing all day on Sunday with a continued variety of wintry weather. This is the only time I am in a "better" position than you for wintry weather, but unfortunately, it doesn't come with the fluffy white stuff.

[BretWx]

16 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

I suspect some in the SW mountains may be downgraded to an advisory for this weekend.  My forecast has me at 50 degrees Sunday with rain.

Nope.

[Met1985]

9 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

It's amazing the power of CAD. You are almost always 10-15 degrees colder than me (if not more), and I'm going to be well below freezing all day on Sunday with a continued variety of wintry weather. This is the only time I am in a "better" position than you for wintry weather, but unfortunately, it doesn't come with the fluffy white stuff.

I hope yall get hammered out that way. Yall are definitely in a much better position than me.

[Met1985]

2 minutes ago, BretWx said:

Nope.

You do to think so?

[Maggie Valley Steve]

I'm getting concerned that once the very cold air settles in, we aren't going really warm up at all next week and then we get another shot at wintry weather next Thursday night/Friday morning with a big time dump of Artic air where temperatures may approach-40 to -50 below normal. What happens this weekend if we can't get above freezing we may well be locked in to icebox for the next 10 to 15 days if not longer.

We have a shot at wintry mischief tonight as well.

[BretWx]

1 minute ago, Met1985 said:

You do to think so?

I am no expert nor meteorologist. Just watching things play out since I was 15 or so. Watch the short range. Don't get bummed out. This thing is moving slower than we thought. At this point we have 1.5 days until things start falling. Be it snow, ice, sleet, etc.

[Met1985]

Just now, BretWx said:

I am no expert nor meteorologist. Just watching things play out since I was 15 or so. Watch the short range. Don't get bummed out. This thing is moving slower than we thought. At this point we have 1.5 days until things start falling. Be it snow, ice, sleet, etc.

Oh not bummed out at all. It is what it is at this point. Just looking at a blend of the Euro and gfs. We could see some significant changes the next 24 the 36 hours with the models. 

[Met1985]

3 minutes ago, Maggie Valley Steve said:

I'm getting concerned that once the very cold air settles in, we aren't going really warm up at all next week and then we get another shot a wintry weather next Thursday night/Friday morning with a big time dump of Artic air where temperatures may approach-40 to -50 below normal. What happens this weekend if we can't get above freezing we may well be locked in to icebox for the next 10 to 15 days if not longer.

We have a shot at wintry mischief tonight as well.

Yeah no kidding the trough looks very stable in the east for the next 10 days.

[calculus1]

7 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

I hope yall get hammered out that way. Yall are definitely in a much better position than me.

Well, if by hammered, you mean a complete sleetbomb, sign me up!

[Met1985]

Just now, calculus1 said:

Well, if by hammered, you mean a complete sleetbomb, sign me up!

Yall are probably going to see a bit of everything out that way.

[cold air aloft]

Met and Steve, when is the last time y’all remember Haywood County having a major ice event, especially up through the Balsams?

In my recollection it’s been maybe 20 years or more. A very rare occurrence around these parts if that verified.

[Met1985]

6 minutes ago, cold air aloft said:

Met and Steve, when is the last time y’all remember Haywood County having a major ice event, especially up through the Balsams?

In my recollection it’s been maybe 20 years or more. A very rare occurrence around these parts if that verified.

We rarely get ice like this especially county wide.  It's usually rain or snow not much ice around here.

[Hvward]

18z GFS drops the snow line around 50 miles or so.  Puts the NW mountains back in the snow game.

[WNC_Fort]

I was going to say. I might be crazy but if the weaker solution starts to win out.. I don’t think we’re far off from some folks getting back to a snowier solution. Still mostly a mixed bag… but

[BretWx]

6 minutes ago, Hvward said:

18z GFS drops the snow line around 50 miles or so.  Puts the NW mountains back in the snow game.

IMO for our area an Ice Storm Warning should go up soon. FRAM ZR with the 18z GFS still showing .70in IMBY.