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2025-2026 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread


Buckethead
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We've been stuck in the soup for 3 days with temperatures stuck in the 40's. 

It looks like there may be a wintry mix Thursday night into Friday morning above 5K and freezing temperatures possible early Saturday morning.

I'm keeping an eye on early next as yet another Gulf Coast low organizes with an digging upper trough and robust cold front headed our way. The models have flipped from a clipper to a wrapped meandering upper low. If this is the pattern ahead as we head into November, things could become interesting.

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Seems like we still may see some high elevation snow Thursday night and most should see a freeze Friday night so bundle up those trick or treaters Friday evening.  After that we get another cool shot then it looks like the pattern goes zonal for a bit. So we will see but after some much needed rainfall the weather will turn beautiful. 

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I got this from Bam weather but it's being talked about currently as we head into Met winter. This would be perfect heading into the cold season. Just 1 variable but a nice one.
Watching the MJO closely ahead.

"Phase 6" through mid-NOV offers an overall warmer outlook.

However, especially as we transition to "phase 8", cooler temps will be the theme. Key will be timing but below normal temps loom to open up DEC20251029_090627.jpg

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What a raw wet day in the Valley. Temperature started out in the upper 30’s and has managed to 'heat up' to the mid and upper 40’s this afternoon. GSP stated in their afternoon disco that the freezing levels are beginning to drop rather quickly and a good chance for snow showers from 3500 ft and the possibility of some light accumulations.

 

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This is what the extended Euro ens is spitting out for December starting at the end of this month. There are several signs that this may come to fruition with the mjo plots moving into favorable forcing and the PV weakening towards the second half of November.

When I analyze the broader, reoccurring pattern, the signals are clear — a –EPO / +PNA/-NAO/-AO setup tries to re-establish by mid to late month. This combination supports a stronger ridge in the West and a deepening trough across the East, allowing colder air to funnel south from Canada.

I am a bit skeptical because the Euro monthly and weeklies kind of burnt me last year. They did well for January but crapped out elsewhere along the season. Ill have more right ups a bit later on a modern day record IOD that will affect this winter as well.
20251101_133210.jpg

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A little lesson from last year especially with the CANSIPS. The first picture was the modeled temperatures for last January. The second picture is the actual temps we had in January. The third picture is the modeled temps for January 2026. Now this can go either way but I don't put much stock in these long range predictions anymore. 20251101_185149.jpg20251101_185146.jpg20251101_185143.jpg

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