September 2025 OBS-Discussion centered NYC subforum

[LibertyBell]

Just now, bluewave said:

The dense tree growth is keeping the under 100° days record going.

 

 

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature < 100 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Period of record: 1869-01-01 to 2025-09-26
1	4818	2012-07-19 through 2025-09-26
2	4609	1881-11-11 through 1894-06-24
3	4022	1966-07-14 through 1977-07-17
4	4015	1980-07-22 through 1991-07-19
5	3261	1957-07-23 through 1966-06-26
6	3252	2001-08-10 through 2010-07-05
7	2904	1918-08-08 through 1926-07-20
8	2844	1903-09-19 through 1911-07-02
9	2219	1911-07-04 through 1917-07-30
10	1475	1944-08-12 through 1948-08-25

 

 

we will need July 2011 type heat to hit 100 at NYC.

[Dark Star]

43 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

There are multiple unlivable conditions all over the world already.  Which is why people don’t live there.  Never have.  

The problem with trying to predict weather related catastrophes, is that it is continually being done.  This gives fuel to the opposition and make the global temperature side look foolish.  

[Sundog]

Rain cancel

[SACRUS]

 

 

[donsutherland1]

As of 4:30 pm, some showers were working their way into southern New Jersey. Cape May was receiving light rain. Some of these showers could each the New York City area tonight.

Showers and light rain are possible tonight into tomorrow. Rainfall amounts should be light. Above normal temperatures will continue through the remainder of September. 

The start of October could see the arrival of the coolest air mass so far this season, but temperatures will likely quickly moderate.

The guidance and historical experience following a second half September mean temperature of 70° or above suggest that October will be warmer than normal in the New York City area. The two most recent Octobers with a cooler than normal first half like 2025 and a second half with a mean temperature of 70° or above were: 2017 (October mean temperature: 64.1° and October 2019: October mean temperature 59.9°).

The probability that TD9 will approach the South Carolina coast but then turn out to sea from there is increasing on account of the expected Fujiwhara interaction with the stronger Humberto. That is now the most likely outcome, even as there remains a possibility of landfall. Even without landfall, the storm would bring periods of heavy rain, gusty winds, and pounding surf to coastal areas.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around September 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.38°C. La Niña conditions will likely develop during mid- or late-autumn.

The SOI was +2.85 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.807 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.3° (1.1° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.3° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

 

[donsutherland1]

Islip reached 82° today. That was its fifth 80° or above high during the second half of September. The last time there were at least as many such days during the second half of September was in 2017 when there were eight such days. The five days is also tied with 1998 and 2016 for the fifth highest number on record for the second half of September.

[LibertyBell]

43 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Islip reached 82° today. That was its fifth 80° or above high during the second half of September. The last time there were at least as many such days during the second half of September was in 2017 when there were eight such days. The five days is also tied with 1998 and 2016 for the fifth highest number on record for the second half of September.

when did this warm stretch begin Don, the 20th?

[donsutherland1]

19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

when did this warm stretch begin Don, the 20th?

Around September 18th.

 

[donsutherland1]

3 hours ago, Dark Star said:

The problem with trying to predict weather related catastrophes, is that it is continually being done.  This gives fuel to the opposition and make the global temperature side look foolish.  

I suspect that public understanding is undermined more by social media influencers, such as the one highlighted in the below example. These influencers typically have no climate expertise and have no climate research record as per literature searches, but regularly and confidently contradict the literature, much of which they have never read much less understand. Today, social media is increasingly a growing number of people's first choice for information.

Mainstream science is actually quite cautious in its pronouncements and often notes caveats e.g., the role of internal variability. Nevertheless, bad faith social media influencers misrepresent and distort those findings to their audiences, most of whom have no inclination to actually go to the literature for the facts.

[Sundog]

3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I suspect that public understanding is undermined more by social media influencers, such as the one highlighted in the below example. These influencers typically have no climate expertise and have no climate research record as per literature searches, but regularly and confidently contradict the literature, much of which they have never read much less understand. Today, social media is increasingly a growing number of people's first choice for information.

Mainstream science is actually quite cautious in its pronouncements and often notes caveats e.g., the role of internal variability. Nevertheless, bad faith social media influencers misrepresent and distort those findings to their audiences, most of whom have no inclination to actually go to the literature for the facts.

It certainly doesn't help that on the other side many of the so called proponents of climate change science are constantly saying the world will end next week or that they draft legislation turning what is purely a scientific matter into some type of racial justice issue. 

It makes the very real and solid science behind climate change look foolish and ridiculous. 

[LibertyBell]

23 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I suspect that public understanding is undermined more by social media influencers, such as the one highlighted in the below example. These influencers typically have no climate expertise and have no climate research record as per literature searches, but regularly and confidently contradict the literature, much of which they have never read much less understand. Today, social media is increasingly a growing number of people's first choice for information.

Mainstream science is actually quite cautious in its pronouncements and often notes caveats e.g., the role of internal variability. Nevertheless, bad faith social media influencers misrepresent and distort those findings to their audiences, most of whom have no inclination to actually go to the literature for the facts.

But this cautiousness also cripples the urgency for action.

 

[Roger Smith]

Not quite 2017 but this will be a top five September for increase in mean temperature from 1st half to 2nd half ... I know we had some posts about this back before the increase began, and seems to me only two or three increased more than this one will. 

The odd thing is, 2017 was among the warmest Octobers, but so was 1947 which followed the exact opposite sequence of largest decrease from Sep 1-15 to Sep 16-30. 

1891 was another September with a large increase from first half to second half. I don't think 2025 can catch it for second place but it may finish third (for increase, not for average). 

[Sundog]

1 minute ago, Roger Smith said:

Not quite 2017 but this will be a top five September for increase in mean temperature from 1st half to 2nd half ... I know we had some posts about this back before the increase began, and seems to me only two or three increased more than this one will. 

The odd thing is, 2017 was among the warmest Octobers, but so was 1947 which followed the exact opposite sequence of largest decrease from Sep 1-15 to Sep 16-30. 

1891 was another September with a large increase from first half to second half. I don't think 2025 can catch it for second place but it may finish third (for increase, not for average). 

I hate warm Octobers but I'd take the winter that followed that 2017 October. 

[Roger Smith]

Bet you would take 1947-48 as well.

[Sundog]

Is there a lot of Virga with this thing?

[the_other_guy]

Can we stop talking about climate change please?

There is a thread for that where you can post all about AGW and the ills of humanity until your fingers fall off.

This is a local weather thread. Its warm, AGW. We get it. No one cares…move on

[SACRUS]

 

Highs:

 

 

PHL: 82
ISP: 82
New Brnswck: 81
TTN: 81
EWR: 80
TEB: 80
LGA: 79
ACY: 79
NYC: 79
BLM: 76
JFK: 76 * missing intr hour highs again

[Sundog]

2 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Can we stop talking about climate change please?

There is a thread for that where you can post all about AGW and the ills of humanity until your fingers fall off.

This is a local weather thread. Its warm, AGW. We get it. No one cares…move on

I care. Warm means less snow. You don't care about snow?

[Sundog]

Let someone move the whole thing to the banter thread. 

[IrishRob17]

Take the bullshit to banter. 

[IrishRob17]

2 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Let someone move the whole thing to the banter thread. 

Or you guys could easily use the + quote option and reply in the banter thread. It's not rocket science. 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Highs:

 

 

PHL: 82
ISP: 82
New Brnswck: 81
TTN: 81
EWR: 80
TEB: 80
LGA: 79
ACY: 79
NYC: 79
BLM: 76
JFK: 76 * missing intr hour highs again

it was 81 here today even when it was overcast, no idea where that 76 at JFK came from =\

[Sundog]

2 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Or you guys could easily use the + quote option and reply in the banter thread. It's not rocket science. 

Indeed I will do that. I just thought that there are so many banter posts in here now, that to clean up this thread for the whole thing to get moved. 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Sundog said:

Indeed I will do that. I just thought that there are so many banter posts in here now, that to clean up this thread for the whole thing to get moved. 

Don actually posted about this in the banter thread so we can continue from there.

[Sundog]

Anyone getting any precip from that blob crossing 78?

[Picard]

Looks like rain changes are nil for most tonight.  What are all of those spots all over the radar?  Doesn't look like typical rain.  Radar glitch?

[Sundog]

2 minutes ago, Picard said:

Looks like rain changes are nil for most tonight.  What are all of those spots all over the radar?  Doesn't look like typical rain.  Radar glitch?

Must be clear air mode

[Stormlover74]

11 minutes ago, Picard said:

Looks like rain changes are nil for most tonight.  What are all of those spots all over the radar?  Doesn't look like typical rain.  Radar glitch?

Its raining right now 

[Picard]

10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Its raining right now 

Yes, in a few towns.  Most aren't seeing anything.  Maybe overnight, but I have some doubts.

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, Picard said:

Yes, in a few towns.  Most aren't seeing anything.  Maybe overnight, but I have some doubts.

Well the models backed off. I was surprised to see anything