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Tracking the tropics - 2025


tiger_deF
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12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No posts from ineedfish.. all you need to know 

Just looking at things now.. we track!! I think 94l gets pushed to the west a bit and Humberto also goes west.. then gets stuck under the ridge and eventually comes up.. 6z GEFS coming west! We watch!

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For New England, this one looks gone for now for a direct strike. The only "hope" would be what the 00z Euro showed and some sort of regeneration in the long range as the ridge rolls east. Or something like the EPS this hits the Carolina coast first but continues to be dragged northward with a more robust ECONUS cutoff. Even under that scenario, idk if we see a real EC runner and obviously the further inland the weaker it becomes. Though that would probably create a big rain setup. 

AL94_2025092500_ECENS_large.png?17587872

This is absolutely a legit threat for the southeast though. Fujiwhara is rare in the Atlantic for a reason, and even though Humberto is likely to become a major you look at 94L this morning and that's not a system that's just going to get absorbed. It may very well get going quickly once it can develop a LLC on the other side of Hispaniola. 

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