TROPICAL STORM ERIN - Expected upgrade to hurricane at 11

[Chinook]

always so cool you can see 1-minute high resolution updates if the GOES-EAST is doing the mesoscale sector like this

[GaWx]

0Z UKMET shifted a bit E with recurve at 69.6W (vs 71.9W on 12Z) meaning passing by closer to Bermuda:

TROPICAL STORM ERIN       ANALYSED POSITION : 17.1N  51.9W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052025

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 15.08.2025    0  17.1N  51.9W     1004            34
    1200UTC 15.08.2025   12  18.0N  55.1W     1003            37
    0000UTC 16.08.2025   24  19.5N  58.1W     1001            39
    1200UTC 16.08.2025   36  20.3N  61.6W      999            41
    0000UTC 17.08.2025   48  20.8N  64.4W      996            40
    1200UTC 17.08.2025   60  21.4N  66.5W      992            46
    0000UTC 18.08.2025   72  22.5N  67.7W      989            48
    1200UTC 18.08.2025   84  24.1N  68.7W      987            50
    0000UTC 19.08.2025   96  25.9N  69.2W      985            52
    1200UTC 19.08.2025  108  27.5N  69.4W      983            57
    0000UTC 20.08.2025  120  29.4N  69.6W      979            60
    1200UTC 20.08.2025  132  31.7N  68.7W      971            64
    0000UTC 21.08.2025  144  33.8N  67.2W      964            70
    1200UTC 21.08.2025  156  35.8N  64.0W      960            73
    0000UTC 22.08.2025  168  37.6N  59.0W      954            75

[WxWatcher007]

998mb with a closed eye per the VDM. Can’t say I recall a system this messy with such a high pressure having a closed eye. 

[BarryStantonGBP]

15 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

998mb with a closed eye per the VDM. Can’t say I recall a system this messy with such a high pressure having a closed eye. 

Would you be surprised if this fails to get major status 

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

Would you be surprised if this fails to get major status 

It’ll get there. It’s organizing, it’s just not pretty. The environment is favorable and if a closed eyewall holds it’ll intensify today and probably take off this weekend. 

[hawkeye_wx]

The latest recon pass found the wind north of the center is up to 72 kts at flight level.  The shear has abated and convection is attempting to wrap around the center.  It should become a hurricane this afternoon.

[BarryStantonGBP]

13 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It’ll get there. It’s organizing, it’s just not pretty. The environment is favorable and if a closed eyewall holds it’ll intensify today and probably take off this weekend. 

are people overhyping sinking and dry air?
CAM ON ERIN!

[BarryStantonGBP]

OI LADS GTFIH

71KT FL

 

120730 1816N 05500W 6966 03142 0038 +088 +076 135072 075 065 004 00
120800 1817N 05459W 6963 03150 0054 +081 +079 137070 075 061 005 00

[BarryStantonGBP]

OI OI LADSSSSSS

[BarryStantonGBP]

KERMIT SAYS CLOSED EYE LADS

Peak Flight-Level Winds: 75kt at 12:07z
Peak SFMR: 65kt at 12:07z

oval eye 19x27 nm wide
17.84N 54.77W
2C Delta a 10K-ft

[BarryStantonGBP]

[GaWx]

Copied from another BB: 998 mb is a pretty high SLP for a hurricane but there’s a rather strong sfc high to its north adding to the gradient:
 

First hurricane of 2025 season

 

AL, 05, 2025081512, , BEST, 0, 180N, 553W, 65, 998, HU

[BarryStantonGBP]

7 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Copied from another BB: 998 mb is a pretty high SLP for a hurricane:
 

First hurricane of 2025 season

 

AL, 05, 2025081512, , BEST, 0, 180N, 553W, 65, 998, HU

GOOOOOOOOOAAAAAAAAAALLLLLLL

 

Hurricane ERIN
As of 12:00 UTC Aug 15, 2025:
 

Location: 18.0°N 55.3°W
Maximum Winds: 65 kt  Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 998 mb
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum wind: 15 nm
64 kt Wind Radii by Quadrant:

[BarryStantonGBP]

SCORE SOME FOOKEN GOALS LASS!

 

CAM ON ERIN

[WxWatcher007]

The NHC has not officially declared this a hurricane on its site. 

[BarryStantonGBP]

BAM BAM BAM

THE WHOLE OF WETHERSPOONS IS SINGING FOR YOU LASS

[BarryStantonGBP]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The NHC has not officially declared this a hurricane on its site. 

Staff are working remotely in Ibiza and Napa then 

anyway BT has Erin at hurricane strength 

[NJwx85]

Another shift West with the 12z spaghetti models. They all now make it to at least 70 W before recurving. The vort that eventually kicks this out should be onshore tomorrow so hopefully the we’ll get a better consensus by Sunday.