August 2025 Discussion-OBS - cooler than normal first week but a big comeback to warmer than normal for the last 2-3 weeks

[SACRUS]

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

dry conditions will aid higher temps

 

Clouds in the way today

 

[donsutherland1]

High temperatures will top out mainly in the upper 70s and lows will fall to lower 60s in New York City through tomorrow. Outside the City, lows in the 50s will be widespread. During the weekend, lows could fall into the 50s even in New York City. Highs will generally reach the middle and upper 70s.

Dry conditions will persist into next week. A system could bring at least some rain during or after the middle of next week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around August 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn.

The SOI was +24.64 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.969 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.6° (2.5° below normal). That would make August 2005 the coolest August since 2000.

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.6° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

[BobbyHolikWillFindYou]

5 hours ago, MANDA said:

That bulletin just gave me chills. So ominous.

[doncat]

Don't believe it's happened before at my station but August will wind up cooler mean temp than June.

[bluewave]

37 minutes ago, doncat said:

Don't believe it's happened before at my station but August will wind up cooler mean temp than June.

Two years in a row for some spots.

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2025	75.4	82.1	75.3	77.6
2024	77.5	81.3	77.0	78.6

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for TRENTON-MERCER AIRPORT, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2025	72.1	78.4	72.0	74.2
2024	74.2	79.0	73.8	75.7

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for Allentown Area, PA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2025	71.4	77.3	71.1	73.3
2024	72.7	76.9	72.1	73.9

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2025	74.2	79.4	71.5	75.0
2024	75.3	78.1	75.0	76.1

 

 

[doncat]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Two years in a row for some spots.

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2025	75.4	82.1	75.3	77.6
2024	77.5	81.3	77.0	78.6

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for TRENTON-MERCER AIRPORT, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2025	72.1	78.4	72.0	74.2
2024	74.2	79.0	73.8	75.7

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for Allentown Area, PA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2025	71.4	77.3	71.1	73.3
2024	72.7	76.9	72.1	73.9

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2025	74.2	79.4	71.5	75.0
2024	75.3	78.1	75.0	76.1

 

 

Yeah just checked...here also. Forgot how hot June of 2024 was.

[bluewave]

8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes. Before the 1900s, too much data was missing, so I excluded them. The 1980s and 1990s were unique.

The record August 1986 cold in NJ was an early signal before one of their snowiest winters from that era.
 

Monthly Data for August 1986 for New Jersey
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

LONG VALLEY	COOP	35
NEWTON	COOP	35
MORRIS PLAINS 1 W	COOP	36
INDIAN MILLS 2 W	COOP	37
PEMBERTON	COOP	37
BELLEPLAIN STA FOREST	COOP	38
HIGH POINT PARK	COOP	38
TOMS RIVER	COOP	39
EWING 3 WNW	COOP	39
FLEMINGTON 5 NNW	COOP	39
CRANFORD	COOP	39
CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR	COOP	39
ESTELL MANOR	COOP	39
Trenton Area	ThreadEx	39
LAKEHURST NAS	WBAN	40
HIGHTSTOWN 2 W	COOP	40
LAMBERTVILLE	COOP	40
PLAINFIELD	COOP	40
BOONTON 1 SE	COOP	40
Atlantic City Area	ThreadEx	41
ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP	WBAN	41
TUCKERTON 2 NE	COOP	41
WOODSTOWN PITTSGROV 4E	COOP	41
SOMERVILLE 4 NW	COOP	41
BELVIDERE BRIDGE	COOP	41
Belvidere Area	ThreadEx	41
NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE	COOP	42
CANOE BROOK	COOP	42
ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG	COOP	42
WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM	COOP	42
New Brunswick Area	ThreadEx	42
MOORESTOWN 4 E	COOP	43
TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	43
LITTLE FALLS	COOP	43
SEABROOK FARMS	COOP	44
LONG BRANCH-OAKHURST	COOP	44
CAPE MAY 2 NW	COOP	45
MILLVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT	WBAN	45
SHILOH	COOP	45
AUDUBON	COOP	46
GLASSBORO 2 NE	COOP	47
BRANT BEACH-BEACH HAVEN	COOP	47
Newark Area	ThreadEx	48
JERSEY CITY	COOP	48
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	48
ATLANTIC CITY MARINA	WBAN	50
Atlantic City Marina Area	ThreadEx	50

 

Data for October 1, 1986 through April 30, 1987
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

SUSSEX 1 NW	COOP	70.0
HIGH POINT PARK	COOP	53.9
LAKEHURST NAS	WBAN	53.3
ESTELL MANOR	COOP	48.1
NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE	COOP	47.3
New Brunswick Area	ThreadEx	47.3
POTTERSVILLE 2 NNW	COOP	46.1
OAK RIDGE RESERVOIR	COOP	45.5
INDIAN MILLS 2 W	COOP	45.4
HIGHTSTOWN 2 W	COOP	44.8
NEWTON	COOP	44.5
CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR	COOP	44.0
GREENWOOD LAKE	COOP	43.5
MILLVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT	WBAN	43.2
MORRIS PLAINS 1 W	COOP	41.9
LONG VALLEY	COOP	40.2
MAYS LANDING 1 W	COOP	40.0
SEABROOK FARMS	COOP	39.9
AUDUBON	COOP	39.0
PLAINFIELD	COOP	38.5
EWING 3 WNW	COOP	37.1
SOMERVILLE 4 NW	COOP	37.1
Trenton Area	ThreadEx	37.1