July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability

[Sundog]

14 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Islip had a sea breeze all day. Nyc is ridiculous lol. 

I really think that NWS not giving a shit after 20+ years of this crap just makes the stereotype of government inefficiency look true. 

This is such an easy fix, no technical knowledge needed. It can be fixed in one day. 

[SACRUS]

 

0.55 in the bucket here missed the heaviest

[Roger Smith]

I suppose philosophically you could argue, in the 1930s the central part of the U.S. was a dust bowl, it has been rescued from that condition and probably won't entirely return to it, so highs set in the 1930s all around the country should be modified for "climate continuity." But the fact is, those were real temperatures experienced by real people. Just as Central Park with all its trees is now the new reality there. It is what it is. We can compare values with that knowledge and form conclusions about what they mean about the "real climate." 

As to the new normal of interior western heat waves, that is not being caused by terrain modification (the terrain is the same as always) but by a weaker upper flow at those latitudes as the jet stream migrates north on average further into n.w. Canada. This is why we're seeing more frequent super heat waves in the west. It did happen in the past too but not as frequently. As one person told me, a national forest in Nevada is where you can see a tree from the shade of another tree. Lightning finds it pretty easy to pick those trees off one at a time, I've actually seen it happen. 98F here today, but the dew point in the 50s makes it relatively tolerable. 

[WE GOT HIM]

2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

0.55 in the bucket here missed the heaviest

.61 here

[lee59]

.59 on the day here. Quarter inch this afternoon and evening.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Roger Smith said:

I suppose philosophically you could argue, in the 1930s the central part of the U.S. was a dust bowl, it has been rescued from that condition and probably won't entirely return to it, so highs set in the 1930s all around the country should be modified for "climate continuity." But the fact is, those were real temperatures experienced by real people. Just as Central Park with all its trees is now the new reality there. It is what it is. We can compare values with that knowledge and form conclusions about what they mean about the "real climate." 

As to the new normal of interior western heat waves, that is not being caused by terrain modification (the terrain is the same as always) but by a weaker upper flow at those latitudes as the jet stream migrates north on average further into n.w. Canada. This is why we're seeing more frequent super heat waves in the west. It did happen in the past too but not as frequently. As one person told me, a national forest in Nevada is where you can see a tree from the shade of another tree. Lightning finds it pretty easy to pick those trees off one at a time, I've actually seen it happen. 98F here today, but the dew point in the 50s makes it relatively tolerable. 

Maybe we are cycling back to longer and more intense heatwaves in the East now..... it's frustrating for all those records to be from the 40s and 50s and 60s and for a few years in the 90s.

We need to end the corn and soy subsidies in the MW, those crops ramp up the humidity.

[Roger Smith]

Corn sweat. I recall dew points near or even above 90F in Iowa in summer of 1995. 

 

[Dark Star]

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Maybe we are cycling back to longer and more intense heatwaves in the East now..... it's frustrating for all those records to be from the 40s and 50s and 60s and for a few years in the 90s.

We need to end the corn and soy subsidies in the MW, those crops ramp up the humidity.

No worries, almost every year our average temperatures increase.  We need some good northern hemisphere volcanic action (just not around here)...

[bluewave]

10 hours ago, Sundog said:

I really think that NWS not giving a shit after 20+ years of this crap just makes the stereotype of government inefficiency look true. 

This is such an easy fix, no technical knowledge needed. It can be fixed in one day. 

There has been a long and storied relationship between the NWS and Central Park observing site at Belvedere Castle. The quality control was light years ahead of what has happened since the NWS left 30 Rock in 1993. 

Prior to the NWS leaving for Upton, there were meteorologists that would regularly go over to Central Park from the office to Central Park for all the snowfall measurements. So the accuracy of the snowfall measurements was top notch. We even had meteorologists that used to post here that would run back and forth between the Rockefeller Center office and Central Park to do the measurements by hand. 

As soon as they left on 1993 and the new ASOS was installed in 1995, the quality temperature and snowfall measurements rapidly declined. The trees began to grow over the site in the 1990s putting the ASOS in the shade especially when the trees were fully leafed out.

There were several news articles written with outside meteorologists criticizing what began to happen around 2003 when it became very obvious. I think the NWS fought to keep the Central Park site open as there may have been some talk of closing it. But the parks department was very sensitive to the idea of cutting any of the trees back in Central Park. So in the last 20 years the tree growth has accelerated even more from when the original articles were written.

The conservation movement in Central Park has grown very strong. This is generally a good thing. But when your weather observing equipment in under a growing tree canopy, it will take 3° to sometimes 5° off the high temperatures on sunny and warm summer days relative to a grassy clearing in the park like the Great Lawn. 

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

There has been a long and storied relationship between the NWS and Central Park observing site at Belvedere Castle. The quality control was light years ahead of what has happened since the NWS left 30 Rock in 1993. 

Prior to the NWS leaving for Upton, there were meteorologists that would regularly go over to Central Park from the office to Central Park for all the snowfall measurements. So the accuracy of the snowfall measurements was top notch. We even had meteorologists that used to post here that would run back and forth between the Rockefeller Center office and Central Park to do the measurements by hand. 

As soon as they left on 1993 and the new ASOS was installed in 1995, the quality temperature and snowfall measurements rapidly declined. The trees began to grow over the site in the 1990s putting the ASOS in the shade especially when the trees were fully leafed out.

There were several news articles written with outside meteorologists criticizing what began to happen around 2003 when it became very obvious. I think the NWS fought to keep the Central Park site open as there may have been some talk of closing it. But the parks department was very sensitive to the idea of cutting any of the trees back in Central Park. 

The conservation movement in Central Park has grown very strong. This is generally a good thing. But when your weather observing equipment in under a growing tree canopy, it will take 3° to sometimes 5° off the high temperatures on sunny and warm summer days relative to a grassy clearing in the park like the Great Lawn. 

 

Why did they leave to go to Upton and more to the point why were they allowed to leave?

I consider parks no better than zoos, they are an artificial *natural* entity created inside a concrete jungle.  If one wants to see nature one should visit a forest.  I don't see the conservation movement as being helpful when it comes to parks at all, in the same way I don't see the confinement of animals in zoos as being natural either.

 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

There has been a long and storied relationship between the NWS and Central Park observing site at Belvedere Castle. The quality control was light years ahead of what has happened since the NWS left 30 Rock in 1993. 

Prior to the NWS leaving for Upton, there were meteorologists that would regularly go over to Central Park from the office to Central Park for all the snowfall measurements. So the accuracy of the snowfall measurements was top notch. We even had meteorologists that used to post here that would run back and forth between the Rockefeller Center office and Central Park to do the measurements by hand. 

As soon as they left on 1993 and the new ASOS was installed in 1995, the quality temperature and snowfall measurements rapidly declined. The trees began to grow over the site in the 1990s putting the ASOS in the shade especially when the trees were fully leafed out.

There were several news articles written with outside meteorologists criticizing what began to happen around 2003 when it became very obvious. I think the NWS fought to keep the Central Park site open as there may have been some talk of closing it. But the parks department was very sensitive to the idea of cutting any of the trees back in Central Park. 

The conservation movement in Central Park has grown very strong. This is generally a good thing. But when your weather observing equipment in under a growing tree canopy, it will take 3° to sometimes 5° off the high temperatures on sunny and warm summer days relative to a grassy clearing in the park like the Great Lawn. 

 

Well, instead of closing it, why didn't they actually move the equipment downtown, where people actually live and work? The 160 years of data, I don't see that as important as the climate has changed so much that what happened during the 1800s and early 1900s is now completely irrelevant.  

[bluewave]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Why did they leave to go to Upton and more to the point why were they allowed to leave?

I consider parks no better than zoos, they are an artificial *natural* entity created inside a concrete jungle.  If one wants to see nature one should visit a forest.  I don't see the conservation movement as being helpful when it comes to parks at all, in the same way I don't see the confinement of animals in zoos as being natural either.

 

It had to do with the radar range across the country with the new radars which were installed back then.  

https://www.weather.gov/okx/Tour_Introduction#:~:text=In 1993%2C the National Weather,as 13 River Forecast Centers.

In 1993, the National Weather Service moved from its old office in New York City to this modernized facility in Upton. Placement of the office was governed, in part, by the range of the radar, about 250 miles.

Nationally, there are 122 forecast offices like this one, as well as 13 River Forecast Centers. The NWS also operates 21 aviation support Center Weather Service Units and various National and Regional Support Centers. Click here to see all the offices and centers that make up the National Weather Service.

[LibertyBell]

14 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

No worries, almost every year our average temperatures increase.  We need some good northern hemisphere volcanic action (just not around here)...

But average temperatures <> extreme temperatures  I would much rather have higher highs than have average temperatures increase.  The differences between our highs and lows seems to be becoming less.

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It had to do with the radar range across the country with the new radars which were installed back then.  

https://www.weather.gov/okx/Tour_Introduction#:~:text=In 1993%2C the National Weather,as 13 River Forecast Centers.

In 1993, the National Weather Service moved from its old office in New York City to this modernized facility in Upton. Placement of the office was governed, in part, by the range of the radar, about 250 miles.

Nationally, there are 122 forecast offices like this one, as well as 13 River Forecast Centers. The NWS also operates 21 aviation support Center Weather Service Units and various National and Regional Support Centers. Click here to see all the offices and centers that make up the National Weather Service.

This matches my memory of 1993 being the last year when we had good data coming out of Central Park.  I noticed that wind speeds, snowfall and temperature data were lower quality after that.

Do you think using ASOS itself also has something to do with the poor data or is it purely a siting issue? I also see lower quality wind reports and precip type reports coming out of there.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

Corn sweat. I recall dew points near or even above 90F in Iowa in summer of 1995. 

 

That was the year thousands of people died in the MW, especially near Chicago.

[Brian5671]

still raining here but back edge pushing through...

[wdrag]

26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

There has been a long and storied relationship between the NWS and Central Park observing site at Belvedere Castle. The quality control was light years ahead of what has happened since the NWS left 30 Rock in 1993. 

Prior to the NWS leaving for Upton, there were meteorologists that would regularly go over to Central Park from the office to Central Park for all the snowfall measurements. So the accuracy of the snowfall measurements was top notch. We even had meteorologists that used to post here that would run back and forth between the Rockefeller Center office and Central Park to do the measurements by hand. 

As soon as they left on 1993 and the new ASOS was installed in 1995, the quality temperature and snowfall measurements rapidly declined. The trees began to grow over the site in the 1990s putting the ASOS in the shade especially when the trees were fully leafed out.

There were several news articles written with outside meteorologists criticizing what began to happen around 2003 when it became very obvious. I think the NWS fought to keep the Central Park site open as there may have been some talk of closing it. But the parks department was very sensitive to the idea of cutting any of the trees back in Central Park. So in the last 20 years the tree growth has accelerated even more from when the original articles were written.

The conservation movement in Central Park has grown very strong. This is generally a good thing. But when your weather observing equipment in under a growing tree canopy, it will take 3° to sometimes 5° off the high temperatures on sunny and warm summer days relative to a grassy clearing in the park like the Great Lawn. 

 

Agreed on premise. Too bad we have to be sarcastic and use CP as a cooling center.  Powers that be have created the situation and for the diehards (point specific accuracy), not acceptable.  

[wdrag]

So...  unless I'm wrong, the pattern for summer is established.  Weakness in the southern and eastern USA.  Generally at or ABOVE normal temps around here. 

Next chance for  FF opportunity in our NYC subforum seems to be in the July 8-15 time frame THOUGH AI seems to deny. 

[Dark Star]

36 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

But average temperatures <> extreme temperatures  I would much rather have higher highs than have average temperatures increase.  The differences between our highs and lows seems to be becoming less.

That's because our night time lows are higher...

[donsutherland1]

53 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

But average temperatures <> extreme temperatures  I would much rather have higher highs than have average temperatures increase.  The differences between our highs and lows seems to be becoming less.

The ranges haven't changed too much, though the summer range in Central Park has fallen a bit more than elsewhere (possibly due to the trees’ impact on highs as summer highs have decoupled from those at the surrounding sites most prominently seen with 90°/100° outcomes). But even during the summer, the coefficient of determination has barely moved (0.84 during 1961-1990 to 0.83 at present) when Central Park's range is constructed relative to those of JFK, LaGuardia, and Newark. This suggests that larger forces are responsible for the temperature range than the trees.

[SACRUS]

74 / 72 cloudy. Perhaps some clearing later this afternoon but not enough to extend this recent heatwave 6/28 /29 - 7/1.  Storms/showers look to stay mainly in southern areas.  Drier/warmer tomorrow to setup a very summery 5 -6 day stretch.  80s - low 90s in the hot spots the 3rd.  Stray storms mainly north Thu evening-overnight.  Fourth of July Friday is looking gorgeous 80s/70s dry nw flow, great day bbq, beach, fireworks - special!  Saturday warmer 80s / low 90s in the hotter spots.   Heat builds back Sun - MOn / Tue - some onshore flow keeps the heat focused or concentrated strongest inland.   Overall warm-hot / humid and wetter as heights remain elevated but showers/storms pop Tue - beyond.

7/2: Clouds - scattered showers focused south
7/3 - 7/5 : Dry/ warm - clear  80s 
7/6 - 7/8 : Hot / humid - strongest heat west
7/9  - beyond :  Warm - hot and wetter overall (looks to have spikes of heat, showers/storms) 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 102 (1966)
NYC: 100 (1966)
LGA: 101 (1966)
JFK: 101 (1966)


Lows:

EWR: 56 (2001)
NYC: 56 (2001)
LGA: 58 (2001)
JFK: 56 (2001)

Historical:

1833 - An unusually large New England tornado, one half to three quarters of a mile wide, went from Salem Pond to Norton Pond, VT, and then into Canada. It prostrated nearly everything in its path. (The Weather Channel)

1833: The following is from the "History and Description of New England" published in 1860: "On the 2nd of July, 1833, this town (Holland, Vermont) was visited by a violent tornado, which commenced on Salem Pond in Salem, and passed over this place in a northeasterly direction. It was from half to three-quarters of a mile wide and prostrated and scattered nearly all the trees, fences, and buildings in its course. It crossed the outlet of Norton Pond and passed into Canada, and its path could be traced through the forests nearly to Connecticut River."

1843 - An alligator reportedly fell from the sky onto Anson Street in Charleston, SC, during a thunderstorm. (David Ludlum)



1944: Today began the longest dry spell in Las Vegas, NV history which lasted until October 10th, a total of 101 days. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1932: Boston, Massachusetts recorded its lowest pressure 29.21 inches of mercury for the month of July. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events)

1965: A cool morning 50° at Sterling, 61° at DCA. A cool 51° minimum temperature equaled July record low on 15th in 1940 in Richmond, VA. (Ref. Richmond Weather Records - KRIC)

1972: Large hail and damaging winds accompanied severe thunderstorms across parts of central Oklahoma. Baseball-size hail fell in the Oklahoma City metropolitan area, and winds reached 75 to 100 mph. The wind took down power lines and damaged or destroyed at least 23 mobile homes. Winds gusted to 100 mph at Lindsay, and 80 mph at Norman. The wind in these areas mainly damaged trees and blew down power lines, but also damaged a few roofs. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1980: Wichita Falls, TX broke their old record by 10 degrees as the temperature hit 114°. This was the 9th consecutive day of temperatures above 100°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1986: Amazingly, an F2 tornado at Jacksonville, NC that killed three people was the deadliest twister of the year as the United States experienced only 15 tornado deaths during the year. This was an all-time low since records began in 1916. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1987 - Thunderstorms in Colorado produced hail as large as golf balls northwest of Kiowa, which accumulated to a depth of twelve inches. Hail two and a half inches in diameter was reported at Black Forest. Hail damaged 900 acres of crops south of the town of Wiggins. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Twenty-six cities in the eastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. The morning low of 47 degrees at Roanoke, VA, broke the July record set the previous day. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the south central U.S., with 158 reports of large hail and damaging winds through the day. Evening thunderstorms in northeastern Texas produced softball size hail which caused more than five million dollars damage at Allen, and wind gusts to 90 mph at Dallas, which injured eight persons and caused seven million dollars damage. Winnfield LA reported 29.52 inches of rain in six days, for a total of 62.50 inches for the first six months of the year. Midland, TX, reported an all-time record high of 112 degrees. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1992: An usually cold air mass for the time of year was in place across northern New York and Vermont. Saranac Lake, NY dipped to 30°. An observer in West Charleston, VT dropped to 30° as well with widespread frost and a frozen garden hose. A total of six cooperative observer stations in Vermont reported freezing low temperatures with East Haven reporting the lowest with 29°. Burlington, VT set a record low with 40°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1994: A US Air jet crashed near Charlotte, NC during a thunderstorm. The cause of the crash was officially listed as wind shear. Major efforts to understand and avoid wind shear have resulted in a dramatic reduction in the number of air accidents involving this deadly phenomenon. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)


2001: In Michigan, frost and freezing temperatures were observed in some locations with Grant dropping to 29 degrees. Muskegon reported their coldest July temperature on record with 39 degrees. Other daily record lows included: Lansing: 38, Muskegon: 39, Flint: 40, Youngstown, Ohio: 40, and Grand Rapids, Michigan: 43 degrees.

2003: Thunderstorm wind gusts to 75 mph at Bigfork, MN, blew off the top of a tree, which went through the windshield of a car and impaled the driver in his seat; he lived. At Basswood Lake, a storm gust toppled a tree onto a tent; 1 camper killed and 1 hurt.
(Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA)

2004: It was about a half hour into the storm that my grandmother recalls hearing what she calls a "blood curtailing scream" coming from me. She looked over to see me lifted from about 6 inches off the ground and dropped back down again. At first she though I had just become scared and jumped as she could tell that the lightning had struck not to far away. Read the full story at the following Ref.
(Ref. A Lightning Survivor)

2007: All-time record dew point depression set at las vegas today June 27, 2011 at 432 PM PDT today the dew point depression at Mccarran International Airport in Las Vegas reached 129 degrees. The dew point depression is defined as the difference between the air temperature and the dew point temperature. In the case of today the air temperature was 107 degrees at 432 PM and the dew point temperature was -22 degrees. This made for a relative humidity of 1 percent at the time. The previous all-time record dew point depression for Las Vegas was 120 degrees set on July 2, 2007. The above information is preliminary and is subject to a final review before being certified by the national climatic data center.
(Ref. NWS - A New Record To Be Certified)

2019: Measurable rain fell at the Richmond International Airport for the first time in 13 days. The drought began on June 20th and ended on July 3, 2019. (Ref. NWS - The Richmond International Airport Records)

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Mainly southern rains the next few hours till late morning.

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

This matches my memory of 1993 being the last year when we had good data coming out of Central Park.  I noticed that wind speeds, snowfall and temperature data were lower quality after that.

Do you think using ASOS itself also has something to do with the poor data or is it purely a siting issue? I also see lower quality wind reports and precip type reports coming out of there.

This story is over 20 years old now and the tree growth has greatly increased since then.

 

Central Park Weather: Vegetative Overgrowth Affecting Weather Readings - WABC-TV

(New York-WABC, August 22, 2003) - Forecasting the weather is not easy.
Government equipment can often be blamed for giving faulty weather
information. As Bill Evans explains, a big culprit may be some of the
equipment buried in Central Park.

Rainfall, snowfall, and the temperature are all vital information
recorded 24 hours a day at the weather station located in the heart of
Central Park.

But meteorologists like Michael Schlacter have serious concerns about the
accuracy of the stations data. It sits amid overgrown vegetation and he
says thats the problem. The leaves can trigger snow gauges and trees can
warp rain and wind measurements. On this hot day, a temperature gauge is
in the shade instead of direct sunlight.

Michael Schlacter, Weather 2000: "Its kind of like driving a car
without a speedometer, odometer, and gas gauge. You are running with
false information."

The weather instruments at Belvedere Castle have long adorned the top.
There used to be a government meteorologist here in the city to keep an
eye on them. But now the nearest meteorologist is 60 miles that way.

But National Weather Service meteorologists say they knew the weather
readings in the park would never be as keenly accurate as the ones at
the airports where guidelines prevent foliage from being within 100 feet
of the station.

Schlacter: "We knew that at times we would have flaky readings, that
leaves would fall in gauges, that we would have problems with
visibility sensors."

[NWS Meteorologist-in-Charge Michael] Wyllie says the weather station is
there because it was historically significant to maintain its presence
in the park.

He says theres been a lot of growth because of the wet spring at so much
in fact that temperatures have routinely been recorded lower in the park
than at the airports.

Wyllie: "We are actually having a micro climate system there because of
the vegetation."

Imperfect perhaps but nonetheless the system provides the official record
of weather for the country's largest city. And Michael Schlacter says
its a city that deserves better.

Schlacter: "I think New Yorkers deserve a lot better, and I think they
deserve the best weather station money can buy."


Copyright 2003 ABC Inc., WABC-TV Inc.

 

[LibertyBell]

37 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This story is over 20 years old now and the tree growth has greatly increased since then.

 

Central Park Weather: Vegetative Overgrowth Affecting Weather Readings - WABC-TV

(New York-WABC, August 22, 2003) - Forecasting the weather is not easy.
Government equipment can often be blamed for giving faulty weather
information. As Bill Evans explains, a big culprit may be some of the
equipment buried in Central Park.

Rainfall, snowfall, and the temperature are all vital information
recorded 24 hours a day at the weather station located in the heart of
Central Park.

But meteorologists like Michael Schlacter have serious concerns about the
accuracy of the stations data. It sits amid overgrown vegetation and he
says thats the problem. The leaves can trigger snow gauges and trees can
warp rain and wind measurements. On this hot day, a temperature gauge is
in the shade instead of direct sunlight.

Michael Schlacter, Weather 2000: "Its kind of like driving a car
without a speedometer, odometer, and gas gauge. You are running with
false information."

The weather instruments at Belvedere Castle have long adorned the top.
There used to be a government meteorologist here in the city to keep an
eye on them. But now the nearest meteorologist is 60 miles that way.

But National Weather Service meteorologists say they knew the weather
readings in the park would never be as keenly accurate as the ones at
the airports where guidelines prevent foliage from being within 100 feet
of the station.

Schlacter: "We knew that at times we would have flaky readings, that
leaves would fall in gauges, that we would have problems with
visibility sensors."

[NWS Meteorologist-in-Charge Michael] Wyllie says the weather station is
there because it was historically significant to maintain its presence
in the park.

He says theres been a lot of growth because of the wet spring at so much
in fact that temperatures have routinely been recorded lower in the park
than at the airports.

Wyllie: "We are actually having a micro climate system there because of
the vegetation."

Imperfect perhaps but nonetheless the system provides the official record
of weather for the country's largest city. And Michael Schlacter says
its a city that deserves better.

Schlacter: "I think New Yorkers deserve a lot better, and I think they
deserve the best weather station money can buy."


Copyright 2003 ABC Inc., WABC-TV Inc.

 

One other thing I have seen and maybe you can comment on Chris, is much rainier summers since 2002 leading to overgrowth of foliage.  We aren't supposed to be this green in the summer, we're not in a tropical rain forest (or at least aren't supposed to be.)

Our climate was much drier in 1988, 1991, 1993, 1995, 1999, 2002.  Our normal summer pattern is to have sunshine 6 out of every 7 days with a few hours of showers and thunderstorms one day every week.  Now, we get stalled fronts and multiple days of rain (like yesterday and today).  In our hotter summers, the Bermuda ridge is supposed to be strong enough to keep all fronts well to our west and north and very little rain in July.  That's been my experience living here.  What caused this to change that now fronts stall in our area-- as if we live in Florida? Our climate has become like the Gulf Coast, where they do get fronts but the fronts stall out and you get days of rain.  It's okay to get 2 days of rain after a 100+ degree heatwave but we didn't have that over the weekend, we had a very modest heatwave and we still have to deal with a stalled front in July? Why? Growing up, this never happened here when we had a normal hot summer.

And because of this fake artificial rainier climate we are in now, our heatwaves have become MUCH shorter, note how long the heatwaves were in 1993, 1999 and 2002, we just do not get that anymore.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

Mainly southern rains the next few hours till late morning.

This front needs to go away.... on a positive note, my forecast is for mostly sunny and clear blue skies from Thursday through Monday.

[SACRUS]

 

 

more familiar heat over the top from 2020's next week, but still heat getting here.  The earlier 100 heat potential seems to be focused inland s-w with low - mid 90s in the usual non coatsal hotter spots - 7/6 - 7/9

 

 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

 

more familiar heat over the top from 2020's next week, but still heat getting here.  The earlier 100 heat potential seems to be focused inland s-w with low - mid 90s in the usual non coatsal hotter spots - 7/6 - 7/9

 

 

Yes, nothing like the extreme heat we had in 1966 or 1993 or 1999 around the same time frame.

This is why I say our extreme heat has flatlined.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The ranges haven't changed too much, though the summer range in Central Park has fallen a bit more than elsewhere (possibly due to the trees’ impact on highs as summer highs have decoupled from those at the surrounding sites most prominently seen with 90°/100° outcomes). But even during the summer, the coefficient of determination has barely moved (0.84 during 1961-1990 to 0.83 at present) when Central Park's range is constructed relative to those of JFK, LaGuardia, and Newark. This suggests that larger forces are responsible for the temperature range than the trees.

also much rainier summers and shorter heatwaves, something which I outlined in an earlier post.

[donsutherland1]

12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

One other thing I have seen and maybe you can comment on Chris, is much rainier summers since 2002 leading to overgrowth of foliage.  We aren't supposed to be this green in the summer, we're not in a tropical rain forest (or at least aren't supposed to be.)

Our climate was much drier in 1988, 1991, 1993, 1995, 1999, 2002.  Our normal summer pattern is to have sunshine 6 out of every 7 days with a few hours of showers and thunderstorms one day every week.  Now, we get stalled fronts and multiple days of rain (like yesterday and today).  In our hotter summers, the Bermuda ridge is supposed to be strong enough to keep all fronts well to our west and north and very little rain in July.  That's been my experience living here.  What caused this to change that now fronts stall in our area-- as if we live in Florida? Our climate has become like the Gulf Coast, where they do get fronts but the fronts stall out and you get days of rain.  It's okay to get 2 days of rain after a 100+ degree heatwave but we didn't have that over the weekend, we had a very modest heatwave and we still have to deal with a stalled front in July? Why? Growing up, this never happened here when we had a normal hot summer.

And because of this fake artificial rainier climate we are in now, our heatwaves have become MUCH shorter, note how long the heatwaves were in 1993, 1999 and 2002, we just do not get that anymore.

 

The average number of days with 0.01" or more rainfall per week during the summer hasn't really changed too much. The amount of rainfall has increased and was at its highest 30-year average for the 30-year period ending in 2020. If one goes beyond 2020, the most recent 30-year period (1995-2024) averaged 2.42 days per week with 0.01" or more rain during the summer and average total summer rainfall of 13.99".