2025-2026 Winter Speculation Thread

[Carvers Gap]

23 hours ago, John1122 said:

Obviously taken with Mount Everest made of salt, but I saw someone post the euro seasonal and it was basically normal to AN snowfall across the region. More AN than normal, at least based on 1991-2020 30 year normals. 6-12 inches along and south of 40, 12-20 inches north of 40 into SE KY and SW Virginia. 

Yep.  Its 500 and surface maps don't correlate to the snow maps.  Temps and 500 maps correlate better than last month.  Generally, a very warm pattern for most of winter.  500 is more opportune for November and December if I remember correctly.  The entire winter run was a bit touchy.  I was really surprised to see that snow map circulating as I am not sure that I have access to it or just haven't looked!  FTR, I don't think it is right at 500.  The CFSv2 seasonal has been spitting out some fun 500 runs at times.

[John1122]

I really can't recall the last time a seasonal map didn't show AN temperatures at long leads. Even when we ice boxed last January and were solidly BN for Jan 2024, I'd be surprised if modeling around this time of year didn't show AN temps for January both years. 

[Daniel Boone]

52 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I really can't recall the last time a seasonal map didn't show AN temperatures at long leads. Even when we ice boxed last January and were solidly BN for Jan 2024, I'd be surprised if modeling around this time of year didn't show AN temps for January both years. 

We need to find those Archives. I'm pretty sure they did. I think they showed a Canonical Nina 500 look as well as Temp. Profile.

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

I really can't recall the last time a seasonal map didn't show AN temperatures at long leads. Even when we ice boxed last January and were solidly BN for Jan 2024, I'd be surprised if modeling around this time of year didn't show AN temps for January both years. 

Oh yeah, seasonal maps are almost always warm at the surface.  I generally just look at 500 maps and source regions - even for weeklies.  The Euro seasonal and weeklies(mean) almost never see cold at range.  Now, the one thing that does work is to look at the control surface and/or 850 temps on the Euro Weeklies - that gives a look under the hood so to speak.  

The seasonal CFSv2 looked good today.  I almost posted it, but it will likely change tomorrow.  The CANSIPS has shown some skill at range w/ its 500 and temps maps...but only the November run has been accurate, though October can provide some hints.  

[John1122]

I honestly think a lot of it is just built into modeling based on ENSO. I was reading the discussion of the 2024-25 winter forecast from NOAA and it's essentially all based on La Nina that they had forecast to begin in winter, and defaulted to what they would say was typical La Nina 500mb patterns which was AN across most of the East. But they admit during the discussion that weaker ENSO events have far less predictability, and that the forecast models incorporate the much more stable strong ENSO results at times and interpret them in a broadbrush fashion. As always, they said the main drivers last winter, PNA/AO/NAO/MJO were simply not able to be forecast more than 3 weeks in advance.

[Daniel Boone]

15 hours ago, John1122 said:

I honestly think a lot of it is just built into modeling based on ENSO. I was reading the discussion of the 2024-25 winter forecast from NOAA and it's essentially all based on La Nina that they had forecast to begin in winter, and defaulted to what they would say was typical La Nina 500mb patterns which was AN across most of the East. But they admit during the discussion that weaker ENSO events have far less predictability, and that the forecast models incorporate the much more stable strong ENSO results at times and interpret them in a broadbrush fashion. As always, they said the main drivers last winter, PNA/AO/NAO/MJO were simply not able to be forecast more than 3 weeks in advance.

Exactly John. I don't know what the weighted percentage is but do know it's by far highest with the Seasonal Models. Basically, so much so the Forecast will show basically Canonical La nina .

[Carvers Gap]

20 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

Exactly John. I don't know what the weighted percentage is but do know it's by far highest with the Seasonal Models. Basically, so much so the Forecast will show basically Canonical La nina .

We have a long way to go with seasonal forecast models.  I honestly think human forecasters can hand develop seasonal forecasts which have equal or better accuracy, albeit with some AI help.   For now, there is just too much for modeling to juggle.  There is some rigor with seasonal modeling which is released at the beginning of each season, i.e. winter forecasts which are released at the end of November are an example of this.  Right now, ENSO is incredibly hard to predict at range.  Since so many models, as you and John note, are based heavily on ENSO....they swing w/ those ENSO forecasts.  Honestly, it is probably the right way to build a model, but again...way too many other things to juggle.  As Mr Bob notes, each year is its own analog.   Until we have mathematics which can predict chaos at range, there are going to be limits to the power of AI modeling.  A computer can easily beat a human in chess.  But...climate/weather at the 9-12 month lead is like a game with nearly unlimited moves and options.  The human mind is a better predictive tool when it comes to seasonal modeling at the moment IMHO.

[jaxjagman]

For a Nina pattern the Gulf of Mexico has been dormant,other than TS Barry hitting the Bay of Campeche in late June there has been notta,that hasnt happened since 1991,You'd think we'd have an active S/Jet this winter,severe/cold,who knows

[John1122]

Saw another Met who put out a video about winter, he compared it to 2013-2014 as one his top analogs. That's two different people I've seen make the comparison. He noted current sea ice and snow cover were above the last couple of years and similar to 2013-14 and that the Pacific was similar.

[Matthew70]

Not that it has any relevance.  My acorn & walnut trees have more nuts than I have ever seen in the 20 years here at my place.  Squirrels oddly there is not nearly as many as there used to be.  Still more than they can eat & store. 

[Daniel Boone]

They're loaded here too. Old folklore used to say that foretold a cold Winter. No proof of that whatsoever, however.

[chris21]

21 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

They're loaded here too. Old folklore used to say that foretold a cold Winter. No proof of that whatsoever, however.

Same here man, somehow I’ve been hit twice in the head!

[Carvers Gap]

On 10/11/2025 at 12:12 PM, John1122 said:

Saw another Met who put out a video about winter, he compared it to 2013-2014 as one his top analogs. That's two different people I've seen make the comparison. He noted current sea ice and snow cover were above the last couple of years and similar to 2013-14 and that the Pacific was similar.

I have seen that year mentioned as well.  How did that winter look?

[John1122]

23 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

I have seen that year mentioned as well.  How did that winter look?

Very cold with a few snow events in January and a big one just before Valentines Day for most of the forum. January was fairly dry here with less than half the normal precip but we had snow falling on 12 different days in January with two accumulating events. 2-4 inches late month was the biggest with around 1 to 2 inches early month. Had two bouts of subzero cold in early and late January, teens for highs a few days. 

[Carvers Gap]

29 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Very cold with a few snow events in January and a big one just before Valentines Day for most of the forum. January was fairly dry here with less than half the normal precip but we had snow falling on 12 different days in January with two accumulating events. 2-4 inches late month was the biggest with around 1 to 2 inches early month. Had two bouts of subzero cold in early and late January, teens for highs a few days. 

What was the preceding fall season like? AN temps w/ some periodic rain chances?

[John1122]

24 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

What was the preceding fall season like? AN temps w/ some periodic rain chances?

October was very dry, with around an inch of precip, and well AN for the first 3 weeks for the most part with one short cool snap, it had some highs in the 80s. The last week was cold but warmed up right around Halloween. It ended up around +3.  

November was -4 here. Late month rain to around 1.5 inches of snow. A couple of days with highs in the 20s and lows in the low 10s by late November. November started almost 20 degrees AN on the 1st and it was in the upper 70s on the second but a front moved through and we fell into the 30s that night. November was a little wetter with just over 4 inches of precip. 

[John1122]

The NOAA winter forecast came out today, and not surprisingly, it is essentially copy/paste La Nina. 

AN slightly favored for the Eastern Valley, Western 2/3rds of the forum, equal chances/near normal. BN Pac NW to Great Lakes. 

As noted, weak Ninas are somewhat less likely to follow "typical" Nina patterns.  That could mean AN for the whole forum, BN for it etc. 

[jaxjagman]

This winter or leading into at least has alot of characteristics of 2024,ENSO,PDO,etc., yeah some teleconnections wont match up mainly the QBO.Be interesting to see how this winter spawns out,seems more than likely a weak PV unlike last winter with a westerly QBO almost into COD sort of speaking

Seems to me we probably see a wavy pattern this year with no great analog years.Even the MJO this time of year is similar to last or even possibly into the next few weeks,dunno,we'll see.But the ENSO is quite similar right now.

The MJO pic is from last year

[Daniel Boone]

On 10/17/2025 at 5:43 PM, jaxjagman said:

This winter or leading into at least has alot of characteristics of 2024,ENSO,PDO,etc., yeah some teleconnections wont match up mainly the QBO.Be interesting to see how this winter spawns out,seems more than likely a weak PV unlike last winter with a westerly QBO almost into COD sort of speaking

Seems to me we probably see a wavy pattern this year with no great analog years.Even the MJO this time of year is similar to last or even possibly into the next few weeks,dunno,we'll see.But the ENSO is quite similar right now.

The MJO pic is from last year

Don Sutherland did some meticulous Calculations Yesterday and came up with a cool Fall but a mild Winter . He details what he factored in and how he did it over in the main Forum. Hopefully we get something akin to last Winter if you like cold and at least average Snowfall. The SST'S in the west Pacific are boiling and those in the Ne Pac have cooled considerably. The SST'S around Newfoundland have warmed. So, not the right direction but, plenty of time to revert . The SST'S in the NEPAC did just that in 2013-14.

[nrgjeff]

Apparently the Physical Science Lab is updating charts. Maybe they are automated. Red banner (no updates) might refer to articles and the like. Snow cover (not shown, see Rutgers) in Siberia and East Asia is running above normal as noted in previous posts this thread. Mongolia snow is building. If it was stormy low pressure that would not be particularly bullish.

However - good for snow fans - Siberia surface pressure is way up (Chart is below). Press is lower in far eastern Russia into the Aleutians; however, that's an overall strong high press signature for Siberia. Temps (not shown) are below normal Mongolia to Manchuria and normal up in the Siberian high (also cold). It is a good signature for the snow cover too. If one wants a cold North America later, one wants Siberia high press (not stormy) and colder temps into China (not locked north).

SSTs are already well covered earlier in this topic / thread. I still favor a slightly mild winter for our Region from the Mid-South to the Valley, but that's colder than recent years. Gulf Coast warmth (La Nina) should spread up here occasionally. Colder Midwest air could / should get in here a few times, esp if the above background state holds. 

[*Flash*]

Bookmarking this for reference. Boy, what I'd give for this look in a couple months!

[Carvers Gap]

Starting to see AN heights rebound for November on modeling.  That is a GOOD thing.  We do not want the flip to be now.  Looks like a 1-2 week bout of BN heights, and then a bounce back to warm.  Euro Weeklies, and to some extent the CFSv2, are showing a stout western ridge (like into the Arctic Circle) alone the West Coast by the second week of December.  That fits climatology.  And it looks frigid.  The Weeklies actually have BN temps for that week at the surface, and that almost never happens at this range.  Huge grains of salt, but winter is showing its hand every so slightly on Weeklies.  The good thing is that I am not having to rely on seasonal modeling...the weeklies have the first two weeks of winter in range.

[Daniel Boone]

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Starting to see AN heights rebound for November on modeling.  That is a GOOD thing.  We do not want the flip to be now.  Looks like a 1-2 week bout of BN heights, and then a bounce back to warm.  Euro Weeklies, and to some extent the CFSv2, are showing a stout western ridge (like into the Arctic Circle) alone the West Coast by the second week of December.  That fits climatology.  And it looks frigid.  The Weeklies actually have BN temps for that week at the surface, and that almost never happens at this range.  Huge grains of salt, but winter is showing its hand every so slightly on Weeklies.  The good thing is that I am not having to rely on seasonal modeling...the weeklies have the first two weeks of winter in range.

Yeah, hopefully the warm spell don't last the balance of November. That's not a good sign. Over 60% odds of a cold Winter when November is colder than Average. John knows the Stats on that .

   Saw where Terpeast put out his Outlook over in MA Sub earlier and he's going mild. Looks nearly textbook canonical Nina. SER Dominate. He's basing on SST'S Pacific and Atlantic along with QBO State. 

[Met1985]

2 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, hopefully the warm spell don't last the balance of November. That's not a good sign. Over 60% odds of a cold Winter when November is colder than Average. John knows the Stats on that .

   Saw where Terpeast put out his Outlook over in MA Sub earlier and he's going mild. Looks nearly textbook canonical Nina. SER Dominate. He's basing on SST'S Pacific and Atlantic along with QBO State. 

With today's climate and also a plethora of variables im not so sure about a cold November leads to a cold winter. Last November was pretty warm for many and we then had one of the coldest January's on average in about 30 years. I think we actually see a mixed bag this winter to average things out in my opinion. 

[John1122]

2 hours ago, Met1985 said:

With today's climate and also a plethora of variables im not so sure about a cold November leads to a cold winter. Last November was pretty warm for many and we then had one of the coldest January's on average in about 30 years. I think we actually see a mixed bag this winter to average things out in my opinion. 

It's not going to happen every time but looking back from the 1930s-2021ish it was about 60-65 percent of the time. Warm Novembers, more often than not, led to unremarkable winters, but not always. Cold Novembers went on to feature major outbreaks of winter weather at a higher than usual rate, but not always. 2013-14, and 2014-15 were both BN Novembers and both great winters (if you like snow/cold outbreaks). Nov 2015, 2016 were well AN and the winter of 16 was good but 17 was blah. Nov 2021 was well BN. 2022 was very cold/snowy, especially from my area and west across our forum region.  I was -4 for Jan 2022 with 15+ inches of snow for the month. Going back, Nov 1995 was -4 here, Jan/Feb 96 were epic. Nov 1993 was -1.5, Jan featured heavy snow, ice, and -15 type temps, Nov 1984 was -3, Jan 85 was legendary, and Feb was great too, Nov 1976 was -9, Jan/Feb '77 were non-stop winter here,  Nov 1967 was -3, Jan and Feb were both well BN, Feb -11. Nov 1959 was -2, snowiest winter in Tn history Jan-March '60. Almost every epic winter we've had in the last 70 years had a cold Nov, except three. Nov 2019 was cold, and winter 2019-20 was a dud, so a cold November isn't a lock, it's a noticeable lean though.

There are generally more cases of a good winter following a warmer Nov than a dud following a cold November, at least imby. 

[Met1985]

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

It's not going to happen every time but looking back from the 1930s-2021ish it was about 60-65 percent of the time. Warm Novembers, more often than not, led to unremarkable winters, but not always. Cold Novembers went on to feature major outbreaks of winter weather at a higher than usual rate, but not always. 2013-14, and 2014-15 were both BN Novembers and both great winters (if you like snow/cold outbreaks). Nov 2015, 2016 were well AN and the winters were blah. Nov 2021 was well BN. 2022 was very cold/snowy, especially from my area and west across our forum region.  I was -4 for Jan 2022 with 15+ inches of snow for the month. Going back, Nov 1995 was -4 here, Jan/Feb 96 were epic. Nov 1993 was -1.5, Jan featured heavy snow, ice, and -15 type temps, Nov 1984 was -3, Jan 85 was legendary, and Feb was great too, Nov 1976 was -9, Jan/Feb '77 were non-stop winter here,  Nov 1967 was -3, Jan and Feb were both well BN, Feb -11. Nov 1959 was -2, snowiest winter in Tn history Jan-March '60. Almost every epic winter we've had in the last 70 years had a cold Nov, except three. Nov 2019 was cold, and winter 2019-20 was a dud, so a cold November isn't a lock, it's a noticeable lean though.

There are generally more cases of a good winter following a warmer Nov than a dud following a cold November, at least imby. 

Well let's hope this one is different because I do think that this November starts out cold but goes mild and may average out to above average in temps. But as we've all talked about these winter patterns tend to last 4 to 6 weeks so mild November,  cold December,  mild January and possibly cold February? Obviously the blocking is a crapshoot and there is no way of really forecasting that with any kind of accuracy.  But I do like the PV in a constant weakened state and we've already seen that this Fall. Oh the joys of this hobby lol.

[John1122]

2 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Well let's hope this one is different because I do think that this November starts out cold but goes mild and may average out to above average in temps. But as we've all talked about these winter patterns tend to last 4 to 6 weeks so mild November,  cold December,  mild January and possibly cold February? Obviously the blocking is a crapshoot and there is no way of really forecasting that with any kind of accuracy.  But I do like the PV in a constant weakened state and we've already seen that this Fall. Oh the joys of this hobby lol.

There tends to be a little more variable outcomes with warmer Novembers than colder ones.  Most warmer Novs that had cold/snowy winters to follow tended to be in the +1 to +1.5 range. Last year was a rare exception of Nov being +5 and we had a very cold January. Winter's truly greatest hits here though, were BN Novembers as a rule.

[Met1985]

12 minutes ago, John1122 said:

There tends to be a little more variable outcomes with warmer Novembers than colder ones.  Most warmer Novs that had cold/snowy winters to follow tended to be in the +1 to +1.5 range. Last year was a rare exception of Nov being +5 and we had a very cold January. Winter's truly greatest hits here though, were BN Novembers as a rule.

Yeah obviously last year was an anomaly of sorts. If we do see a mild November then we may be cooked for Winter. But im hedging on the optimistic side of things with us being in a weak enso state and a multitude of other factors. 

[dwagner88]

7 hours ago, John1122 said:

It's not going to happen every time but looking back from the 1930s-2021ish it was about 60-65 percent of the time. Warm Novembers, more often than not, led to unremarkable winters, but not always. Cold Novembers went on to feature major outbreaks of winter weather at a higher than usual rate, but not always. 2013-14, and 2014-15 were both BN Novembers and both great winters (if you like snow/cold outbreaks). Nov 2015, 2016 were well AN and the winter of 16 was good but 17 was blah. Nov 2021 was well BN. 2022 was very cold/snowy, especially from my area and west across our forum region.  I was -4 for Jan 2022 with 15+ inches of snow for the month. Going back, Nov 1995 was -4 here, Jan/Feb 96 were epic. Nov 1993 was -1.5, Jan featured heavy snow, ice, and -15 type temps, Nov 1984 was -3, Jan 85 was legendary, and Feb was great too, Nov 1976 was -9, Jan/Feb '77 were non-stop winter here,  Nov 1967 was -3, Jan and Feb were both well BN, Feb -11. Nov 1959 was -2, snowiest winter in Tn history Jan-March '60. Almost every epic winter we've had in the last 70 years had a cold Nov, except three. Nov 2019 was cold, and winter 2019-20 was a dud, so a cold November isn't a lock, it's a noticeable lean though.

There are generally more cases of a good winter following a warmer Nov than a dud following a cold November, at least imby. 

Yeah that 2019-2020 Winter was awful. We got really lucky with a quick wet 4" snow late in the season down here, but my coldest temperature that entire season was in mid November. It never got truly cold again after that.