2025-2026 Winter Speculation Thread

[Carvers Gap]

23 hours ago, John1122 said:

Obviously taken with Mount Everest made of salt, but I saw someone post the euro seasonal and it was basically normal to AN snowfall across the region. More AN than normal, at least based on 1991-2020 30 year normals. 6-12 inches along and south of 40, 12-20 inches north of 40 into SE KY and SW Virginia. 

Yep.  Its 500 and surface maps don't correlate to the snow maps.  Temps and 500 maps correlate better than last month.  Generally, a very warm pattern for most of winter.  500 is more opportune for November and December if I remember correctly.  The entire winter run was a bit touchy.  I was really surprised to see that snow map circulating as I am not sure that I have access to it or just haven't looked!  FTR, I don't think it is right at 500.  The CFSv2 seasonal has been spitting out some fun 500 runs at times.

[John1122]

I really can't recall the last time a seasonal map didn't show AN temperatures at long leads. Even when we ice boxed last January and were solidly BN for Jan 2024, I'd be surprised if modeling around this time of year didn't show AN temps for January both years. 

[Daniel Boone]

52 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I really can't recall the last time a seasonal map didn't show AN temperatures at long leads. Even when we ice boxed last January and were solidly BN for Jan 2024, I'd be surprised if modeling around this time of year didn't show AN temps for January both years. 

We need to find those Archives. I'm pretty sure they did. I think they showed a Canonical Nina 500 look as well as Temp. Profile.

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

I really can't recall the last time a seasonal map didn't show AN temperatures at long leads. Even when we ice boxed last January and were solidly BN for Jan 2024, I'd be surprised if modeling around this time of year didn't show AN temps for January both years. 

Oh yeah, seasonal maps are almost always warm at the surface.  I generally just look at 500 maps and source regions - even for weeklies.  The Euro seasonal and weeklies(mean) almost never see cold at range.  Now, the one thing that does work is to look at the control surface and/or 850 temps on the Euro Weeklies - that gives a look under the hood so to speak.  

The seasonal CFSv2 looked good today.  I almost posted it, but it will likely change tomorrow.  The CANSIPS has shown some skill at range w/ its 500 and temps maps...but only the November run has been accurate, though October can provide some hints.