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E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2025 Obs/Discussion


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Most spots will see the start of Chester County’s  2nd “heat wave” of the summer season. Today through Wednesday should see highs topping out in the low 90’s each day. Today could be the exception across the higher ridge locales with highs a degree or two short of 90. A strong cold front will start to cross the area by later Wednesday night with shower and t-storm chances increasing and signal a nice change to below normal temperatures for next weekend. Below normal temperatures look likely for at least the first week of August.

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That humidity was just brutal yesterday. Looks like KABE got to a peak dew point of 77 which is fairly rare for this area. Good thing it wasn’t terribly hot or else it would have been completely miserable out there. Really looking forward to the arrival of the cold front on Thursday night…hopefully we get a good day or two of storms before that.

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As I mentioned yesterday some of our higher spots across the County had the potential not to reach 90 degrees on Monday and indeed 7 of the stations failed to reach there. So for those spots they will not "enjoy" their 2nd "heat wave" of the summer. For everybody else today will be day 2 and tomorrow day 3 but the final day of the "heat wave". We could see some heavy rain by later Thursday with a strong cold frontal passage. This will usher in well below normal temperatures for the weekend with an almost autumnal feeling as highs are in the 70's and nights in the 50's.

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On 7/16/2025 at 5:33 PM, Violentweatherfan said:

Honestly I love this weather 

I can tell you didn’t write the forecast discussion for Mt. Holly this evening, lol:

"Wednesday will be a repeat of today with more hot temps & obnoxious humidity for the area."

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Today should be our last 90-degree day for at least the next 10 or so days. We will see rain chances ramping up tomorrow afternoon into the evening with a cold front. We could see at least an inch of rain in many spots across the area with showers lasting until Friday. On Friday night we see some autumn like weather arrive for the weekend. Highs mostly in the 70's with lows in the 50's. Below normal temperatures look to continue through much of next week.

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If you believe the 12z NAM and a few other hi-res models, some places may not get out of the 60s on Friday. It just makes today’s heat and humidity feel so much worse knowing a long stretch of comfortable weather is right around the corner.

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1 hour ago, LVblizzard said:

If you believe the 12z NAM and a few other hi-res models, some places may not get out of the 60s on Friday. It just makes today’s heat and humidity feel so much worse knowing a long stretch of comfortable weather is right around the corner.

Someone in the NYC forum said the NAM is amping up precipitation for Friday too

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1 hour ago, Violentweatherfan said:

Someone in the NYC forum said the NAM is amping up precipitation for Friday too

Tomorrow night but yes. The mesos generally agree that there will be a 3-6" bullseye somewhere between Philly and NYC with everyone else getting 1-2".

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12 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

Did something happen overnight with the short range models? Weather Sentry has MBY with only 1 inch total rain today and early tomorrow where on Wednesday it had over 3" 

 

Not complaining. just asking. 

I know nothing about modeling, but it seems they struggle with convection. It's a day to pay more attention to Mt. Holly and the radar than short-range models.

Already 82F at 9am. Will probably make another run at 90F if cloud cover holds off long enough.

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We have a Flash Flood Watch in effect from 2pm through 6am Friday morning. Rain and storm chances begin to increase as we move into this afternoon and into the night. One to as much as three inches could fall in spots. Following the rain we cool down and clear out by Friday night with a fantastic weather weekend on tap for the entire area. Days mainly in the 70's with nights in the 50's. Pleasant weather looks to continue for much of next week.

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One last flood watch for July.  I currently have 3.21" of rain for the month.  Will I finally be able to cash-in on one of these days?  Maybe even reach average rainfall?

Heat index is already 98F because of this "obnoxious" 79F dew point.  

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7 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said:

Heat today is over performing 

Feeling lucky here with temps staying in the low-mid 80s in Allentown. Looks like the cutoff between heat and humidity and more comfortable weather is just south of the Lehigh/Northampton and Bucks/Montgomery lines. The storms should drop it down to the 70s which is hopefully where they’ll stay.

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In the past hour, Reading picked up 2.47" (62.7 mm) of rain. That sets a new July hourly mark and is the third highest hourly figure on record. Reading's daily total of 2.67" (67.8 mm) breaks the July 31 daily mark of 2.56" (65.0 mm) set way back in 1887. 

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Severe Thunderstorm Watches are up - 

Quote
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 562
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
115 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2025

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 562 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

PAC001-011-017-029-041-043-045-055-071-075-077-091-095-099-101-
133-010000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0562.250731T1715Z-250801T0000Z/

PA
.    PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS                BERKS               BUCKS
CHESTER              CUMBERLAND          DAUPHIN
DELAWARE             FRANKLIN            LANCASTER
LEBANON              LEHIGH              MONTGOMERY
NORTHAMPTON          PERRY               PHILADELPHIA
YORK
$$

 

Quote
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 562
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
115 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2025

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 562 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NJC001-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-033-
035-039-041-010000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0562.250731T1715Z-250801T0000Z/

NJ
.    NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ATLANTIC             BURLINGTON          CAMDEN
CAPE MAY             CUMBERLAND          ESSEX
GLOUCESTER           HUDSON              HUNTERDON
MERCER               MIDDLESEX           MONMOUTH
MORRIS               OCEAN               SALEM
SOMERSET             UNION               WARREN
$$

 

Quote
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 562
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
115 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2025

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 562 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

DEC001-003-005-010000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0562.250731T1715Z-250801T0000Z/

DE
.    DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

KENT                 NEW CASTLE          SUSSEX
$$

 

Quote
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 562
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
115 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2025

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 562 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

ANZ338-355-430-431-450-451-452-453-454-455-530-531-532-533-534-
535-536-537-538-539-540-541-542-543-650-010000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0562.250731T1715Z-250801T0000Z/

CW

.    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

NEW YORK HARBOR

SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM

DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE

DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE

COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20
NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20
NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM

CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD

CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD

CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD

CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD

CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA

TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD

TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD

TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA

PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR

CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD

EASTERN BAY

CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER

PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD

TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH
ISLAND

COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA OUT 20
NM

$$
ATTN...WFO...LWX...AKQ...PHI...OKX...CTP...

 

Made it up to 92 today after a 77 low before it clouded over.  Got up to 96 yesterday and unfortunately had to go out in it to an afternoon dentist appointment in Ft. Washington. Ugh.

Had 14 days of 90+ in July + 8 days of 90+ in June for 2 days so far this season.

Currently down to 81 with 77 dp and the RAIN has come! :thumbsup:  However I only have 0,.08 inches in the bucket so it is just getting started.

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