June 2025 discussion-obs: Summerlike

[winterwarlock]

Just now, JustinRP37 said:

They are more brown than the blacklegged tick and were originally discovered in the US in NJ. See https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/cattle/ticks/asian-longhorned. The scary thing about them is their population has exploded because they can reproduce via parthenogenesis which is wild for a tick.  

Eww nasty

[SACRUS]

 

62 / 59 cloudy onshore E/ENE flow.  Other than drizzle and spotty showers cloudy cool - highs near or below 70 for most.   Front comes back north tomorrow with next round of showers/rain 0.25 - 0.50 in the heaviest spots.  Clearing later Tue gets it back to normal - near 80.  Wed - Fri much warmer with a chance for the next / first 90 in the hotter spots on Thursday (6/12)elsewhere mid - upper 80s.

Next front/boundary comes this weekend 6/14-15 with clouds and rain with a similar looking into next week.   Overall warmer and wetter  than normal beyond with heat from the west building east and north with heat possible by the 20th with a warmer close to the month.

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 102 (2011)
NYC: 97 (1933)
LGA: 99 (2008)
JFK: 96 (1984)


Lows:

EWR: 47 (1957)
NYC: 47 (1930)
LGA: 59 (1980)
JFK: 48 (1980)

Histrical:

 

 

1874:The highest maximum temperature ever recorded in June in Washington, DC was 102 °F. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)

1953 - A tornado hit the town of Worcester MA killing ninety persons. The northeastern states usually remain free of destructive tornadoes, however in this case a low pressure system, responsible for producing severe thunderstorms in Michigan and Ohio the previous day, brought severe weather to New Hampshire and central Massachusetts. The tornado, up to a mile in width at times, tracked 46 miles through Worcester County. It mangled steel towers built to withstand winds of 375 mph. Debris from the tornado fell in the Boston area, and adjacent Atlantic Ocea. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

 

1966: Hurricane Alma made landfall over the eastern Florida panhandle becoming the earliest hurricane to make landfall on the United States mainland.

1971: The tornado that struck the town of Gruver in the Texas Panhandle on this date is believed to be the widest tornado in U.S. history with an average path width of 2,500 yards. At times, the monster storm was over two miles wide. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

1972 - A cloudburst along the eastern slopes of the Black Hills of South Dakota produced as much as 14 inches of rain resulting in the Rapid City flash flood disaster. The rains, which fell in about four hours time, caused the Canyon Lake Dam to collapse. A wall of water swept through the city drowning 237 persons, and causing more than 100 million dollars property damage. (David Ludlum)

1987 - Lightning struck Tire Mountain near Denver CO, destroying two million tires out of a huge pile of six million tires. Thunderstorms spawned three tornadoes around Denver, and a man was killed at Conifer CO when strong thunderstorm winds lifted up a porch and dropped it on him. A thunderstorm near Compton MD produced two inch hail, and high winds which destroyed twenty barns and ten houses injuring five persons. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from North Carolina to the Central Gulf Coast Region. Hail in North Carolina caused more than five million dollars damage to property, and more than sixty million dollars damage to crops. Hail three and a half inches in diameter was reported at New Bern NC. Thunderstorms in the Central High Plains produced eighteen inches of hail at Fountain CO. The temperature at Del Rio TX soared to an all-time record high of 112 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Severe weather abated for a date, however, showers and thunderstorms continued to drench the eastern U.S. with torrential rains. Milton, FL, was deluged with 15.47 inches in 24 hours. Record heat and prolonged drought in south central Texas left salt deposits on power lines and insulators near the coast, and when nighttime dew caused arcing, the city of Brownsville was plunged into darkness. (The National Weather Summary)

1993: Lightning struck a US Air Boeing 737 parked overnight at the Buffalo International Airport in New York. The lightning traveled through the plane to the runway and exploded the concrete runway at the three points of the landing gear. The flying concrete debris caused damage to the fuselage and winds of the plane. The 737 had to be ferried out for repairs. In addition to the damage to the plane and runway, power generators connected to the plane overnight were shorted and blown out.  (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

[SACRUS]

 

Another inch over  (Tue) /  Sat - Sun.

 

[cleetussnow]

I got with a deer tick yesterday.  Going on Doxy today.  Damn.

 

[jm1220]

Misty misery Monday. 

[Sundog]

37 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Not saying it is jacket weather. Nor am I saying it isn't summer. But the big forecasts for summer were for +2 to +3 for many of the major outlets for our area. I'm not seeing that is all I am saying. It is looking like "normal". There are plenty on these boards that were saying HHH for days and days and that just isn't in the mix right now. But we do need to try and dry out some for the weekends for seasonal work.

That said abundant moisture will keep our lab busy with above average ticks and mosquitoes. That is why I follow this stuff to forecast out what the season will look like. Right now it is well above average for ticks, but tick bites are below average. Likely having to do with weekend washouts keeping people away from hikes and what not. 

We have 90% of summer still ahead of us. I will bet we finish above normal by the end of August. 

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

They are most definitely not cool. We've been above normal pretty much every summer month for years. 

Rainier, yes

cool (like today) or warm but definitely not hot.  above normal = warm  hot = large number of 90 and 95 degree days and a few 100 degree days thrown in.

That's how I view warm vs hot.  warm describes elevated averages while hot refers to number of hot days (this is how the NWS describes it too).  when talking about hot days, elevated minima are not factored in as the word *hot* as a specific definition refers to how high the high temperatures are.

the excessive rain is why our number of hot days is down.

 

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, Sundog said:

We have 90% of summer still ahead of us. I will bet we finish above normal by the end of August. 

above normal doesn't cut it for me, as averages can be elevated without any hot days, just a lot of rain and elevated minima.

this is why warm and hot describe completely different things

we can be above normal without any hot days or any sunshine for that matter

that's not a hot summer.

 

[LibertyBell]

25 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 102 (2011)
NYC: 97 (1933)
LGA: 99 (2008)
JFK: 96 (1984)


Lows:

EWR: 47 (1957)
NYC: 47 (1930)
LGA: 59 (1980)
JFK: 48 (1980)

Histrical:

 

 

1874:The highest maximum temperature ever recorded in June in Washington, DC was 102 °F. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)

1953 - A tornado hit the town of Worcester MA killing ninety persons. The northeastern states usually remain free of destructive tornadoes, however in this case a low pressure system, responsible for producing severe thunderstorms in Michigan and Ohio the previous day, brought severe weather to New Hampshire and central Massachusetts. The tornado, up to a mile in width at times, tracked 46 miles through Worcester County. It mangled steel towers built to withstand winds of 375 mph. Debris from the tornado fell in the Boston area, and adjacent Atlantic Ocea. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

 

1966: Hurricane Alma made landfall over the eastern Florida panhandle becoming the earliest hurricane to make landfall on the United States mainland.

1971: The tornado that struck the town of Gruver in the Texas Panhandle on this date is believed to be the widest tornado in U.S. history with an average path width of 2,500 yards. At times, the monster storm was over two miles wide. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

1972 - A cloudburst along the eastern slopes of the Black Hills of South Dakota produced as much as 14 inches of rain resulting in the Rapid City flash flood disaster. The rains, which fell in about four hours time, caused the Canyon Lake Dam to collapse. A wall of water swept through the city drowning 237 persons, and causing more than 100 million dollars property damage. (David Ludlum)

1987 - Lightning struck Tire Mountain near Denver CO, destroying two million tires out of a huge pile of six million tires. Thunderstorms spawned three tornadoes around Denver, and a man was killed at Conifer CO when strong thunderstorm winds lifted up a porch and dropped it on him. A thunderstorm near Compton MD produced two inch hail, and high winds which destroyed twenty barns and ten houses injuring five persons. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from North Carolina to the Central Gulf Coast Region. Hail in North Carolina caused more than five million dollars damage to property, and more than sixty million dollars damage to crops. Hail three and a half inches in diameter was reported at New Bern NC. Thunderstorms in the Central High Plains produced eighteen inches of hail at Fountain CO. The temperature at Del Rio TX soared to an all-time record high of 112 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Severe weather abated for a date, however, showers and thunderstorms continued to drench the eastern U.S. with torrential rains. Milton, FL, was deluged with 15.47 inches in 24 hours. Record heat and prolonged drought in south central Texas left salt deposits on power lines and insulators near the coast, and when nighttime dew caused arcing, the city of Brownsville was plunged into darkness. (The National Weather Summary)

1993: Lightning struck a US Air Boeing 737 parked overnight at the Buffalo International Airport in New York. The lightning traveled through the plane to the runway and exploded the concrete runway at the three points of the landing gear. The flying concrete debris caused damage to the fuselage and winds of the plane. The 737 had to be ferried out for repairs. In addition to the damage to the plane and runway, power generators connected to the plane overnight were shorted and blown out.  (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

EWR: 102 (2011)

now this is real heat, not bogus *above average* temperatures that some people confuse with heat

[bluewave]

Less warm or closer to the warmest 1991-2020 normals is the new cool. This looks like the pattern for the next few weeks. Perhaps the pattern warms up during the last week of June allowing a modest warm departure for the whole month on average. 

 

June 9 to 16 EPS forecast 

June 16 to 23 forecast 

 

 

 

[LibertyBell]

56 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Not saying it is jacket weather. Nor am I saying it isn't summer. But the big forecasts for summer were for +2 to +3 for many of the major outlets for our area. I'm not seeing that is all I am saying. It is looking like "normal". There are plenty on these boards that were saying HHH for days and days and that just isn't in the mix right now. But we do need to try and dry out some for the weekends for seasonal work.

That said abundant moisture will keep our lab busy with above average ticks and mosquitoes. That is why I follow this stuff to forecast out what the season will look like. Right now it is well above average for ticks, but tick bites are below average. Likely having to do with weekend washouts keeping people away from hikes and what not. 

yeah this weather will only make more people sick it's why I need to do extensive spraying

tick bites for animals are way above normal

by the way glad to see you're coming around to my way of thinking that above average temperatures does not mean it's hot.  I know it's a nuanced discussion but *hot* has a specific definition and a rainy summer even with +2 temperatures with a low number of 90 and 95 degree days and no 100 degree days is not a hot summer.

the whole thing about average temperatures I feel is used to construct a narrative by people that just isn't true and doesn't pass the eye test.  And I'm someone who knows full well about and agrees with climate change science.  But I know what a hot summer is and above average with lots of rain and a low number of hot days just does not cut it.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Less warm or closer to the warmest 1991-2020 normals is the new cool. This looks like the pattern for the next few weeks. Perhaps the pattern warms up during the last week of June allowing a modest warm departure for the whole month on average. 

 

June 9 to 16 EPS forecast 

June 16 to 23 forecast 

 

 

 

yes we can call it a warm summer, but hot has a specific definition that refers to extreme temperatures while warm can merely refer to elevated averages from higher mins.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

People's expectations are also too high. I think our average is still below 80F. We shouldn't be seeing 90+ daily weather. In fact we're averaging AN after first 8 days of June. 

But it's not a hot summer either, hot has a specific definition that refers to a high number of 90 and 95 degree days and 100 degree days too.

We used to get these frequently in the 40s and 50s, as most of our heat records are from that era (with another peak in the 80s, 90s up to 02.)

 

[Sundog]

12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

above normal doesn't cut it for me, as averages can be elevated without any hot days, just a lot of rain and elevated minima.

this is why warm and hot describe completely different things

we can be above normal without any hot days or any sunshine for that matter

that's not a hot summer.

 

I'd rather hot, dry days intermixed with legit below normal days, the way things were.

I love the fact that July 1936 that gave us 106 degrees in NYC actually finished below normal, -1.3 by today's fake new normals.

90% of the lows that month were in the 60s and about half the month had lows 65 degrees or lower. Three nights had lows of 60 degrees.

There were already 8 million people in NYC in the 1930s, so the UHI was already alive and well at the time. There were more people in NYC in the 1930s then the second biggest city in the USA, L.A., has today in 2025. 

I HATE high minimums and these digusting higher dewpoints we always have now. 

[LibertyBell]

58 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

We are paying for the warmth we had last October/November.

 

Maybe the seasons are just shifting and Septembers will be warmer than Junes

This is an interesting thought.  September has become more summery than June is.

[LibertyBell]

54 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

How many beach weekends?  Zero

We only have 15 between Memorial and Labor Days and 3 already gone with the 4th looking the worst yet. 

How many true beach days at all? Last week a couple but it was actually significantly cooler there than inland

 

We get 3 this week Wednesday through Friday but might be another week before the next one

 

Before you blink its over...in 2 weeks we will have posts about days getting shorter

thank you, math heads confuse the definition between warm and hot, the two mean different things.  above average does not mean *hot*

[bluewave]

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

yes we can call it a warm summer, but hot has a specific definition that refers to extreme temperatures while warm can merely refer to elevated averages from higher mins.

 

I was pointing this out last month. We typically don’t get 40 to 50 days reaching 90° like in 2010 and 2022 without 90°+ heat in May. The summer could still average warmer than normal. But we will probablyhave plenty of onshore flow and moisture. 

[LibertyBell]

55 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

They are more brown than the blacklegged tick and were originally discovered in the US in NJ. See https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/cattle/ticks/asian-longhorned. The scary thing about them is their population has exploded because they can reproduce via parthenogenesis which is wild for a tick.  

we need to start spraying chemicals to eradicate them, even if it means killing off insects

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Rainy patterns have been the only way that we have avoided heat during the summers since 2010. Closer to average summer temperatures have been associated with wet onshore flow patterns.

So it’s no surprise that the models have less heat going forward than earlier runs. But this introduces the risk of flooding when the systems or storms stall out. We have been seeing this pattern to our north since the start of May with 10”+.

The real risk is that some spot gets 10”+ of rain in a few hours rather than spread out over a month during the summer into fall. This is when the severe flooding occurs like Southern CT and Suffolk County saw last August. 

June 9 to 16 more onshore flow and showers than originally forecast leading to very comfortable June temperatures.

New run

 

Old run

 

The downside of rainy patterns in the summer are more pests and more spread of infectious disease.  I fully expect West Nile and Lyme disease to be rampant this summer because of all this cursed rainfall.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I was pointing this out last month. We typically don’t get 40 to 50 days reaching 90° like in 2010 and 2022 without 90°+ heat in May. The summer could still average warmer than normal. But we will probablyhave plenty of onshore flow and moisture. 

and very little sun and looks like lots of rain.

the real heat looks to be in the West this year, California is having a big heat summer already.

Normally when this happens, it means that it will flip just in time for fall and winter, in other words we will have another mild and snowless winter while California gets a lot of snow.

Thats going to be my long range forecast

 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I was pointing this out last month. We typically don’t get 40 to 50 days reaching 90° like in 2010 and 2022 without 90°+ heat in May. The summer could still average warmer than normal. But we will probablyhave plenty of onshore flow and moisture. 

I doubt we will even get 30 (definitely not here or in NYC)..... my prediction would be for less than 30 90 degree days for EWR too.

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, Sundog said:

I'd rather hot, dry days intermixed with legit below normal days, the way things were.

I love the fact that July 1936 that gave us 106 degrees in NYC actually finished below normal, -1.3 by today's fake new normals.

90% of the lows that month were in the 60s and about half the month had lows 65 degrees or lower. Three nights had lows of 60 degrees.

There were already 8 million people in NYC in the 1930s, so the UHI was already alive and well at the time. There were more people in NYC in the 1930s then the second biggest city in the USA, L.A., has today in 2025. 

I HATE high minimums and these digusting higher dewpoints we always have now. 

Did you see that July 2010 heat I posted? I was wowed that we actually once had that kind of climate.  101 degrees and a dew point of 45 and humidity under 15% lol.

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

I’m ready for the switch to typical south shore warm season drought. It’s been a while since we have had such a cool wet start to the summer.

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, JustinRP37 said:

Well now you have to go knock on wood. NJ is interesting though as the Asian longhorned tick is really taking over. 

This year I've flicked more ticks off of myself than the previous 8 years combined so far when doing yardwork. I've had probably about 8 crawling on me so far.  Thankfully zero bites.  My dogs are on preventative meds, but I've flicked several off of them as well.  It has been nuts.

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I doubt we will even get 30 (definitely not here or in NYC)..... my prediction would be for less than 30 90 degree days for EWR too.

Yeah, my guess is that the only spots this summer that have a chance of reaching 30 days will be somewhere in NJ. Newark was a little over last summer and a little under back in 2023. Central Park has been so overgrown that they haven’t had 30 days since 2010. 

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I’m ready for the switch to typical south shore warm season drought. It’s been a while since we have had such a cool wet start to the summer.

The lawns are green at least. Nothing worse than staring at endless brown dead grass. 

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The lawns are green at least. Nothing worse than staring at endless brown dead grass. 

Yeah, we are looking really good here in the East.

 

[SACRUS]

40 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

But it's not a hot summer either, hot has a specific definition that refers to a high number of 90 and 95 degree days and 100 degree days too.

We used to get these frequently in the 40s and 50s, as most of our heat records are from that era (with another peak in the 80s, 90s up to 02.)

 

40s/50s had more record lows as well check the daily records posted.   2010 - 2019 #90 days vs 40-40 , 50 -59 i think still trended higher recently (maybe outside the park) .  I am trying to find previous posts with the data or online.    (We) the part of the area east of the Hudson and Staten Island has been influenced by persistent onshore limiting heat west of there while those in EPA- NJ had many above normal 90 degree days in the past 5 years outside 2023 which was jsut shy of normal amount of 90 degree days. 

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

35 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, my guess is that the only spots this summer that have a chance of reaching 30 days will be somewhere in NJ. Newark was a little over last summer and a little under back in 2023. Central Park has been so overgrown that they haven’t had 30 days since 2010. 

 

Agreed and feel this summer the peak of the heat (above normal) is late July - August and spots east will stay near or mid 20s and C-N NJ 30+ days in the 90s.   

 In 2022 EWR had 4 90 degree days to this point and wound up with 49 90 + days and before then 2016 had 3 90 degree days to this point and wound up with 40.   Thursday EWR gets to 2 then will have to wait to the Jun 20 - 30 period to see where June winds up this year.