June 2025 discussion-obs: Summerlike

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The 3 consecutive 100 degree days in 1948 occurred during August 26-28.

Thanks Don, I got some clarity on this page (it coincides with the 2 straight 100+ days that happened at JFK during the same period.

https://www.weather.gov/okx/100degreedays

 

The only two periods of three consecutive 100+ days at NYC were in 1948 and 1993.

Both times JFK had two consecutive 100+ days.

NYC has had multiple separate heatwaves that peaked at 100+ on a few occasions.

1944 (two heatwaves in August), 1949 (once in July once in August), 1953 (July and August-September), 1954 (two heatwaves in July), 1955 (one in July and one in August), 1966 (a whopping three separate heatwaves that peaked at 100+, one in June and two in July).  And that was the last previous time it happened, NYC has not had multiple heatwaves peak at 100+ since the 3 heatwaves that did it in 1966.

More recently, JFK had two heatwaves peak at 100+ in 1983 (one in July and one in August and another one that peaked at 99 in September.) That was the only time they had that.

 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks Don, I got some clarity on this page (it coincides with the 2 straight 100+ days that happened at JFK during the same period.

https://www.weather.gov/okx/100degreedays

 

The only two periods of three consecutive 100+ days at NYC were in 1948 and 1993.

Both times JFK had two consecutive 100+ days.

NYC has had multiple separate heatwaves that peaked at 100+ on a few occasions.

1944 (two heatwaves in August), 1949 (once in July once in August), 1953 (July and August-September), 1954 (two heatwaves in July), 1955 (one in July and one in August), 1966 (a whopping three separate heatwaves that peaked at 100+, one in June and two in July).  And that was the last previous time it happened, NYC has not had multiple heatwaves peak at 100+ since the 3 heatwaves that did it in 1966.

More recently, JFK had two heatwaves peak at 100+ in 1983 (one in July and one in August and another one that peaked at 99 in September.) That was the only time they had that.

 

post August 20th 100 degree heat is very rare which is why the super heatwave in August 1948 and August - September 1953 are so notable.  As is the August 20, 1983 100 degrees at JFK and the 99 on September 11, 1983.

[forkyfork]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

1948 had a wildly hot summer, if I remember correctly from what I read NYC had 3 100+ days (consecutively in July) and JFK had 2 100+ days (consecutively in August).  JFK may have hit 100+ in July too, but their period of record only began at the end of July so they didn't record that earlier heatwave in which NYC hit 100+ 3 days in a row?

 

all three summer months were below average and july had a low in the 50s

[FPizz]

21 minutes ago, Poker2015 said:

Wow, that really dropped. I've been sitting at 82 for a couple hours now.

Yeah, low was 75, but been sitting at 82 now for a bit

[forkyfork]

we all had midnight highs in the 80s so this little cool blip will only show up as one day in the records

[Stormlover74]

Clearing later or mostly cloudy all day?

[forkyfork]

sat-mon looks like our next potential heat wave

[Sundog]

6 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

all three summer months were below average and july had a low in the 50s

Even July 1936 which has the 106 record in Central Park finished below normal using today's fake averages. 

Our baseline is higher and we don't get those nice coolshots in between the heat episodes like we used to, or at least they are much more rare.

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

all three summer months were below average and july had a low in the 50s

August 26-28 had an extreme 3 day 100+ heatwave though

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Even July 1936 which has the 106 record in Central Park finished below normal using today's fake averages. 

Our baseline is higher and we don't get those nice coolshots in between the heat episodes like we used to, or at least they are much more rare.

it's mostly minimum driven, the highs and lows have become compressed 

[Sundog]

Many models yesterday had a stripe of mid 80s for 2PM today in NYC and western LI because they showed temps never really dropping below the upper 70s. Needless to say they all busted pretty badly. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

The intensity of this heat does remind me of 2011 (the only other summer with multiple 102+ days at JFK), except a month earlier than that extreme heatwave.  Do you think if this had happened in late July it would have been even hotter and do you see a heavy rainfall month like what happened in 2011 after that extreme heatwave to repeat itself? If it's going to occur a month earlier, just like the big heat did, it would happen in July instead of in August.

 

If we had a drought and this was a month later, then maybe the 2010 and 2011 highs of 108° could have been challenged. Hard to say for sure. But it’s interesting that this strongest heatwave in over a decade followed the record westerly flow this past winter into spring. Even though we are seeing a quick return to easterly flow. Plus continuing the measurable rainfall on weekend pattern without it being a washout.

I guess we are lucky that we haven’t experienced any severe droughts like we had from the 1960s to around 2001. Since droughts of that magnitude with the warmer background pattern would probably support 110°+ peak heat and our first consecutive 10 days reaching 100° and perhaps a 25 day official heatwave of reaching 90°. While this heatwave only produced some scattered outages, not sure how well our power grid would hold up with such extreme drought feedback driven heat.

[dmillz25]

Down to 69 

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Even July 1936 which has the 106 record in Central Park finished below normal using today's fake averages. 

Our baseline is higher and we don't get those nice coolshots in between the heat episodes like we used to, or at least they are much more rare.

the really hot summers began with 1944, the 1944s and 1950s were a cut above everything that happened before and since.  And a few of the 1960s, like 1966, has never been matched.

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

If we had a drought and this was a month later, then maybe the 2010 and 2011 highs of 108° could have been challenged. Hard to say for sure. But it’s interesting that this strongest heatwave in over a decade followed the record westerly flow this past winter into spring. Even though we are seeing a quick return to easterly flow. Plus continuing the measurable rainfall on weekend pattern without it being a washout.

I guess we are lucky that we haven’t experienced any severe droughts like we had from the 1960s to around 2001. Since droughts of that magnitude with the warmer background pattern would probably support 110°+ peak heat and our first consecutive 10 days reaching 100° and perhaps a 25 day official heatwave of reaching 90°. While this heatwave only produced some scattered outages, not sure how well our power grid would hold up with such extreme drought feedback driven heat.

those droughts are why the summers of 1953 and 1966 have never been matched for 100+ heat

[Brian5671]

17 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Many models yesterday had a stripe of mid 80s for 2PM today in NYC and western LI because they showed temps never really dropping below the upper 70s. Needless to say they all busted pretty badly. 

models usually underestimate the SW push of the back door fronts....

[FPizz]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

models usually underestimate the SW push of the back door fronts....

It has reached here now as I went from 82 to 75 pretty quickly

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, FPizz said:

It has reached here now as I went from 82 to 75 pretty quickly

Supposed to rebound later. We shall see

[Sundog]

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Supposed to rebound later. We shall see

0Z Euro for 2PM:

No way this verifies

[bluewave]

21 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

those droughts are why the summers of 1953 and 1966 have never been matched for 100+ heat

Our longest 20 day heatwave back in 1988 was all about the record Plains drought which extended to the East Coast.
 

Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1988-07-29	95	0.00
1988-07-30	99	0.00
1988-07-31	90	T
1988-08-01	91	0.00
1988-08-02	94	0.00
1988-08-03	93	0.00
1988-08-04	92	0.00
1988-08-05	90	T
1988-08-06	90	0.00
1988-08-07	93	T
1988-08-08	90	0.00
1988-08-09	92	0.00
1988-08-10	93	0.01
1988-08-11	97	0.00
1988-08-12	95	0.00
1988-08-13	98	0.00
1988-08-14	98	0.00
1988-08-15	99	0.00
1988-08-16	92	0.00
1988-08-17	90	0.05

 

[LibertyBell]

32 minutes ago, bluewave said:

If we had a drought and this was a month later, then maybe the 2010 and 2011 highs of 108° could have been challenged. Hard to say for sure. But it’s interesting that this strongest heatwave in over a decade followed the record westerly flow this past winter into spring. Even though we are seeing a quick return to easterly flow. Plus continuing the measurable rainfall on weekend pattern without it being a washout.

I guess we are lucky that we haven’t experienced any severe droughts like we had from the 1960s to around 2001. Since droughts of that magnitude with the warmer background pattern would probably support 110°+ peak heat and our first consecutive 10 days reaching 100° and perhaps a 25 day official heatwave of reaching 90°. While this heatwave only produced some scattered outages, not sure how well our power grid would hold up with such extreme drought feedback driven heat.

10 consecutive 100 degree days? do you think it's possible here?

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Our longest 20 day heatwave back in 1988 was all about the record Plains drought which extended to the East Coast.
 

Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1988-07-29	95	0.00
1988-07-30	99	0.00
1988-07-31	90	T
1988-08-01	91	0.00
1988-08-02	94	0.00
1988-08-03	93	0.00
1988-08-04	92	0.00
1988-08-05	90	T
1988-08-06	90	0.00
1988-08-07	93	T
1988-08-08	90	0.00
1988-08-09	92	0.00
1988-08-10	93	0.01
1988-08-11	97	0.00
1988-08-12	95	0.00
1988-08-13	98	0.00
1988-08-14	98	0.00
1988-08-15	99	0.00
1988-08-16	92	0.00
1988-08-17	90	0.05

 

But less heat for us on the coast in 1988? 1999 was much hotter here

[Brian5671]

10 minutes ago, Sundog said:

0Z Euro for 2PM:

No way this verifies

agreed-most places will stay steady at whatever they are once the front passes---here we droppped to 66, it's 68 now with a stiff NE breeze

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

10 consecutive 100 degree days? do you think it's possible here?

It would be possible in NJ with a 60s to 01 style drought. But our climate has become much wetter since then. So I think it would be a challenge to ever get another 20 day 90° day heatwave in NJ or double the 5 day 100° streak from 22. 

The pattern of our new climate is a bunch of shorter heatwaves. But a high total number of 90° days especially in NJ. This is why they have seen so many summers with 40+ 90° days recently. But with breaks in between and no 20 day runs.

[Sundog]

8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

agreed-most places will stay steady at whatever they are once the front passes---here we droppped to 66, it's 68 now with a stiff NE breeze

Still 70 here, models like to overdo highs on days with backdoor coldfronts and cloudy skies. 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It would be possible in NJ with a 60s to 01 style drought. But our climate has become much wetter since then. So I think it would be a challenge to ever get another 20 day 90° day heatwave in NJ or double the 5 day 100° streak from 22. 

The pattern of our new climate is a bunch of shorter heatwaves. But a high total number  of 90° days especially in NJ. This is why they have seen so many summers with 40+ 90° days recently. But with breaks in between and no 20 day runs.

I think this week demonstrated that Long Island can be just as hot as New Jersey if the ridge is strong enough.  This intense heat was like what we had in 2011.  The heat we have had since then wasn't strong enough to overcome the ocean like this one was.

1988 the heat wasn't nearly as intense as what we had in 1993 or 1999 or 2010 or 2011 or what we just had now.

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It would be possible in NJ with a 60s to 01 style drought. But our climate has become much wetter since then. So I think it would be a challenge to ever get another 20 day 90° day heatwave in NJ or double the 5 day 100° streak from 22. 

The pattern of our new climate is a bunch of shorter heatwaves. But a high total number  of 90° days especially in NJ. This is why they have seen so many summers with 40+ 90° days recently. But with breaks in between and no 20 day runs.

Maybe this will cycle back to more 40s-60s type long heatwaves? If not that, maybe a 1993 or 1999 type heatwave (which is still relatively recent), 1999 had two very long super heatwaves and the one extreme heatwave in 1993 really stands out.

 

[bluewave]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I think this week demonstrated that Long Island can be just as hot as New Jersey if the ridge is strong enough.  This intense heat was like what we had in 2011.  The heat we have had since then wasn't strong enough to overcome the ocean like this one was.

1988 the heat wasn't nearly as intense as what we had in 1993 or 1999 or 2010 or 2011 or what we just had now.

1988 was all about duration. It’s what happens with drought feedback. This wetter pattern is why we don’t get those very long extended heatwaves anymore. But we can still get shorter and more intense ones like the last few days.

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

1988 was all about duration. It’s what happens with drought feedback. This wetter pattern is why we don’t get those very long extended heatwaves anymore. But we can still get shorter and more intense ones like the last few days.

I think 1993 and 1999 were in drought patterns too weren't they Chris? We had much drier summers back then.  July 1999 was one of the hottest months I have ever experienced.  July 1993 right up there too.

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Still 70 here, models like to overdo highs on days with backdoor coldfronts and cloudy skies. 

What I see on the hourlies is that the sun comes back out at 2 PM and thats when the temperature spike occurs.  As a matter of fact they have me completely clear at 5 PM.

Tomorrow looks like the really cool day and cloudy all day with a high of 72.

It's 76 here now with a forecasted high of 81 here.

Sunday looks to be partly sunny here now and no rain at all and a high of 86.