May 2025

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

There is some small scattered stuff on the models, mostly north and west of the coast.

Good lol

[vegan_edible]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

we need to suck water vapor out of the atmosphere

i know i say this every now and again, but im pretty dead-set on moving out of this area and back out west sometime in the next few years, i'd rather be somewhere that doesn't see this kind of garbage weather the majority of the year. also the drivers here are outstandingly bad

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 92 (1951)
NYC: 90 (1951)
LGA: 90 (1951)
JFK: 83 (1993)

 

Lows:

EWR: 40 (2016)
NYC: 42 (1878)
LGA: 41 (1983)
JFK: 43 (1983)

Historical:

 

1874 - The Mill Creek disaster occurred west of Northhampton MA. Dam slippage resulted in a flash flood which claimed 143 lives, and caused a million dollars property damage. (David Ludlum)

1924 - The temperature at Blitzen OR soared to 108 degrees to set a state record for the month of May. The record was later tied at Pelton Dam on the 31st of May in 1986. (The Weather Channel)

1952 - High winds in the Wasatch Canyon of Utah struck Ogden and Brigham City. Winds at Hill Air Force Base gusted to 92 mph. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - It was a summer-like day as thunderstorms abounded across the nation. Thunderstorms in Texas drenched Guadelupe County with more than three inches of rain resulting in flash flooding. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather from Florida to New York State. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed in the north central U.S. Havre, MT, reported a record high of 95 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather in the south central U.S. Thunderstorms spawned twenty tornadoes, and there were 180 reports of large hail and damaging winds. A tornado at Cleburne, TX, caused 30 million dollars damage. A violent (F-4) tornado touched down near Brackettville, TX, and a strong (F-3) tornado killed one person and injured 28 others at Jarrell, TX. Thunderstorms also produced softball size hail at Shamrock, TX. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from eastern Oklahoma and northeastern Texas to the Upper Ohio Valley. Thunderstorms spawned seventeen tornadoes, including a twister which killed one person and injured another north of Corning, AR. There were 128 reports of large hail or damaging winds. Strong thunderstorm winds killed one person and injured six others at Folsomville, IN, and injured another five persons in southeastern Hardin County KY. In Arkansas, baseball size hail was reported near Fouke and near El Dorado. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1995: On this date through the 17th, 6.55 inches of rain fell at St. Louis, MO. This is the fifth greatest 24-hour total amount of precipitation for that location. 5.73 inches of rain fell at Columbia, MO making it the sixth greatest 24-hour total amount of precipitation for that location.

LGA: 41 (1983)
JFK: 43 (1983)

 

wild how cold it was so late in the season in 1983 and everything flipped in June and we had a historically hot summer and even September, one of my all time favorites.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Some of the models show the severe drought shifting eastward into the Plains from the 2030s into the 2050s. But it would require the ridge east of New England shifting for us to get westerly winds from the Plains.

I suppose a compromise could be possible with both ridges linking up and alternating westerly and southerly flow. But this hasn’t been the case in the last decade with more of a trough over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley and inshore flow.

Notice how these days the common summer pattern has been a ridge east of New England and over the West. But from 2010 to 2013 when we had all the 100° heat and westerly flow there was a ridge in the Plains. 
 

 

People think a *warming world* will only make linear changes, but it's called climate change and not global warming for a good reason, many different things are going to happen.  I am 100% sure we will shift to a predominantly westerly wind pattern with time and get our hot and dry summers back. These things go in cycles, even with climate change involved.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Maybe if this rampaging Pacific Jet is a permanent thing now the West would be wet and Plains would start to dry out. But who knows. 

and we would start to dry out too :-)

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Sundog said:

Do these models show why the drought would shift to the plains? Like what atmospheric changes are shown that shift the drought east? Basically why would a warming world do that is what I'm asking. 

Because it's much more than just a *warming world*

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The wild card will be what happens to rainfall to our west. Some of long range models shift the Western Drought into the Plains in the coming years and decades. This could potentially alter the more onshore flow we have been experiencing over the last decade. So in that case we would regularly see 10 or more days reaching 100° over NJ and 5+ on Long Island. But it would require the ridge east of New England shifting to our West. This is highly speculative since the current pattern we are experiencing has been different from that scenario. No matter how much the climate warms, we aren’t going to see many 100° days with onshore flow dominating.

The thing I am noticing with climate change is that the changes are extreme and not linear.  Notice what's going on with California.  They go from historically dry to historically wet and then back to historically dry again.

I believe the true calling card for climate change is more extremes, not linear changes, so we will be extremely wet for awhile and then extremely dry and then back again, just like what California has been experiencing.

 

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Showers are possible late next week, along with cool readings.

I'm glad it's mostly sunny today and it should be tomorrow too and through Tuesday or Wednesday at least. Let's celebrate Memorial Day weekend right now lol

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

i know i say this every now and again, but im pretty dead-set on moving out of this area and back out west sometime in the next few years, i'd rather be somewhere that doesn't see this kind of garbage weather the majority of the year. also the drivers here are outstandingly bad

What I don't like is that drying out seems to be getting pushed back.

However, because of the SE Ridge, the rainfall has been underperforming for the coast and we are seeing more sun than was previously forecast.

I would look for the ridge to get stronger when we enter summer and that would shift the rain even further to the west.

 

 

[TheClimateChanger]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

The thing I am noticing with climate change is that the changes are extreme and not linear.  Notice what's going on with California.  They go from historically dry to historically wet and then back to historically dry again.

I believe the true calling card for climate change is more extremes, not linear changes, so we will be extremely wet for awhile and then extremely dry and then back again, just like what California has been experiencing.

 

Don't forget about natural variability. Like recent summers - well above historical norms - might actually be unusually cold summers for a +1.5C world. You need at least 30-50 years of data to get a full sense of what the climate of a given region is capable of producing in terms of extremes. Right now, we only have a couple of years' worth of data at +1.5C. It might be that, given the right pattern, we could see a summer far exceeding anything ever recorded.

[IrishRob17]

22 minutes ago, Picard said:

Looks like a bit of excitement coming through PA if it holds together.

Looks like a Watch coming for further south near Philadelphia 

[IrishRob17]

Watch issued for a good chunk of NJ, eastern PA down to Delaware. 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, IrishRob17 said:

Watch issued for a good chunk of NJ, eastern PA down to Delaware. 

 

[IrishRob17]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

 

I knew I could count on you for the graphic. 

[SACRUS]

 

 

[SACRUS]

22 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I'm glad it's mostly sunny today and it should be tomorrow too and through Tuesday or Wednesday at least. Let's celebrate Memorial Day weekend right now lol

Looks mostly cloudy today and we'll see the timing of the front tomrorow and any lingering clouds.  Sun should return Sunday - Tuesday

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Looks mostly cloudy today and we'll see the timing of the front tomrorow and any lingering clouds.  Sun should return Sunday - Tuesday

but it's sunny here right now and looks nice :-)

I see the rain is now forecast to come in earlier, Yesterday they were saying Thursday today they are saying Wednesday? Does this mean it will clear up in time for Memorial Day?

 

[LibertyBell]

28 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Don't forget about natural variability. Like recent summers - well above historical norms - might actually be unusually cold summers for a +1.5C world. You need at least 30-50 years of data to get a full sense of what the climate of a given region is capable of producing in terms of extremes. Right now, we only have a couple of years' worth of data at +1.5C. It might be that, given the right pattern, we could see a summer far exceeding anything ever recorded.

Yes, I'm looking for that to occur in 11 year cycles, the next time would be in the 2032-34 period.

Note these summers:

1933, 1944, 1955, 1966, 1977, 1988, 1999, 2010.

2021 didn't live up to expectations but 2022 did so maybe it's slightly more than 11 years lol.  At any rate, the next period to look at would be 2032-2034.

 

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

 

Big storms in Scranton-Wilkes Barre area, Tony!  Any storm damage reports yet?

[Sundog]

53 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

models crap it out as it comes east--

This thing was modeled to crap out way west of where it is now so it will be interesting to watch what happens.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Sundog said:

This thing was modeled to crap out way west of where it is now so it will be interesting to watch what happens.

Maybe the sunshine we have now will keep it energized.

It was very foggy early today but it's cleared out nicely.

[Sundog]

GEMLAM did the best with this thing compared to the other models, it has it crapping out just as it hits the coast, some rain but nothing crazy.

It had this as early as 18z yesterday while other models had lightly scattered stuff:

[TheClimateChanger]

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes, I'm looking for that to occur in 11 year cycles, the next time would be in the 2032-34 period.

Note these summers:

1933, 1944, 1955, 1966, 1977, 1988, 1999, 2010.

2021 didn't live up to expectations but 2022 did so maybe it's slightly more than 11 years lol.  At any rate, the next period to look at would be 2032-2034.

 

1977 would be a summer of yore [in terms of cold, not heat] today. Freezing cold compared to most summers nowadays. Sorry, I don't buy all of those 100s at Central Park. Central Park is typically one of the cooler spots, not the absolute hottest spot. That makes zero sense. Why would a park be hotter than an asphalt-ridden airport? 74.8F mean at EWR is COLD compared to most summers.

This is not believable:

 

[TheClimateChanger]

6 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

1977 would be a summer of yore [in terms of cold, not heat] today. Freezing cold compared to most summers nowadays. Sorry, I don't buy all of those 100s at Central Park. Central Park is typically one of the cooler spots, not the absolute hottest spot. That makes zero sense. Why would a park be hotter than an asphalt-ridden airport? 74.8F mean at EWR is COLD compared to most summers.

This is not believable:

 

Upstate data confirms 1977 as a cold summer.

Syracuse - mean temp of 66.9F, which is 11th coldest on record. Last matched in 2000, and exceeded in 1992 - both recognized as extremely cold summers.

Albany - mean temp of 68.0F, which is 16th coldest on record. As in the case of Syracuse, not seen since 2000.

Pittsburgh - mean of 67.9F, second coldest on record. There hasn't been a year since that was even close to it.

Perplexing how Central Park could reach 104F, when places upstream barely topped 90F that summer? What generated that heat? As you said, it can't get hot on southerly wind... so it must have come from the west? Yet there were no hot temperatures to the west.

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

1977 would be a summer of yore [in terms of cold, not heat] today. Freezing cold compared to most summers nowadays. Sorry, I don't buy all of those 100s at Central Park. Central Park is typically one of the cooler spots, not the absolute hottest spot. That makes zero sense. Why would a park be hotter than an asphalt-ridden airport? 74.8F mean at EWR is COLD compared to most summers.

This is not believable:

 

I don't look at summers in terms of average temperatures, they don't mean anything to me.

It had the greatest 2 week period of heat we have ever seen including the second highest temperature ever recorded at NYC 104 and 3 days of 100+

The heat was so bad in 1977 that we had a massive power outage in July.

Don't use average temperatures for anything, they don't show the details.

 

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

1977 would be a summer of yore [in terms of cold, not heat] today. Freezing cold compared to most summers nowadays. Sorry, I don't buy all of those 100s at Central Park. Central Park is typically one of the cooler spots, not the absolute hottest spot. That makes zero sense. Why would a park be hotter than an asphalt-ridden airport? 74.8F mean at EWR is COLD compared to most summers.

This is not believable:

 

lol you were not here in 1977, I know how bad it was, we even had a massive power outage and riots because of the extreme heat.

 

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/night-new-yorks-lights-went-out/#:~:text=Morning broke hot and humid,rate was at 12 percent.

 

Morning broke hot and humid over New York on July 13, 1977, at the outset of what became one of the longest heat waves in the city’s history: The temperature would top 100 degrees three times over the next nine days. Heat wasn’t the only stressor that summer. The unemployment rate was at 12 percent. Subway fares had jumped from 35 to 50 cents. Crime was way up: Over the previous decade, the rates of murders, assaults and car thefts had more than doubled, the rate of burglary had more than tripled and robberies were up by a factor of 10. The city was deep into a fiscal crisis that led to dramatic cuts in social services—including hospital and library closures and massive layoffs of firefighters, police, public school teachers and sanitation workers—which placed additional pressure on the residents who needed city services the most.

A severe thunderstorm turned this volatile situation into a flashpoint. At 8:37 p.m. in neighboring Westchester County, lightning hit two high-voltage lines at a major power plant. Two more major lines on the Con Edison power system, which serviced eight million people in the greater New York metropolitan area, were struck at 8:56 p.m. A cascade of power outages throughout the system, over the course of just an hour, led to its total collapse. By 9:40 p.m. all five boroughs of the city were plunged into darkness. The economic and social frustrations that had steadily been building boiled over. Widespread looting, unrest and arson broke out in the poorest neighborhoods. Over the next 24 hours, 1,600 stores were damaged, 1,000-plus fires were reported and more than 3,700 people were arrested. Economic damages reached well into the hundreds of millions of dollars.

By the time day dawned on July 15, Con Ed’s system was back online, and New York’s residents tried to resume the rhythms of daily life amid broken glass and embers. But they sensed, already, that their city was drastically changed by the night the lights went out. One year later, a special commission established to study the blackout tried, without success, to fully capture its impact. “The social costs of the blackout,” the commission noted in its summary report, “are difficult to measure.”

 

[MorristownWx]

About to have quite the downpour. 

[Sundog]

6 minutes ago, MorristownWx said:

About to have quite the downpour. 

I wonder if the rain will hold to NYC

[MorristownWx]

Just now, Sundog said:

I wonder if the rain will hold to NYC

 Northern fringe not as strong or hefty as what CNJ and further south will see but rain seems to be holding steady in that line. I would think city sees something out of it. 

[TheClimateChanger]

16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

lol you were not here in 1977, I know how bad it was, we even had a massive power outage and riots because of the extreme heat.

 

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/night-new-yorks-lights-went-out/#:~:text=Morning broke hot and humid,rate was at 12 percent.

 

Morning broke hot and humid over New York on July 13, 1977, at the outset of what became one of the longest heat waves in the city’s history: The temperature would top 100 degrees three times over the next nine days. Heat wasn’t the only stressor that summer. The unemployment rate was at 12 percent. Subway fares had jumped from 35 to 50 cents. Crime was way up: Over the previous decade, the rates of murders, assaults and car thefts had more than doubled, the rate of burglary had more than tripled and robberies were up by a factor of 10. The city was deep into a fiscal crisis that led to dramatic cuts in social services—including hospital and library closures and massive layoffs of firefighters, police, public school teachers and sanitation workers—which placed additional pressure on the residents who needed city services the most.

A severe thunderstorm turned this volatile situation into a flashpoint. At 8:37 p.m. in neighboring Westchester County, lightning hit two high-voltage lines at a major power plant. Two more major lines on the Con Edison power system, which serviced eight million people in the greater New York metropolitan area, were struck at 8:56 p.m. A cascade of power outages throughout the system, over the course of just an hour, led to its total collapse. By 9:40 p.m. all five boroughs of the city were plunged into darkness. The economic and social frustrations that had steadily been building boiled over. Widespread looting, unrest and arson broke out in the poorest neighborhoods. Over the next 24 hours, 1,600 stores were damaged, 1,000-plus fires were reported and more than 3,700 people were arrested. Economic damages reached well into the hundreds of millions of dollars.

By the time day dawned on July 15, Con Ed’s system was back online, and New York’s residents tried to resume the rhythms of daily life amid broken glass and embers. But they sensed, already, that their city was drastically changed by the night the lights went out. One year later, a special commission established to study the blackout tried, without success, to fully capture its impact. “The social costs of the blackout,” the commission noted in its summary report, “are difficult to measure.”

 

Not sure the heat was the cause of the power outage. Sounds like severe thunderstorms took out two high voltage lines at a major power plant. And the riots were caused by opportunistic criminals, likely poisoned by the proliferation of leaded gasoline.