brooklynwx99 Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: dendrite should ban you for posting that 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 above normal temps, below normal snow. ez call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nianticct Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 Typical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 2 hours ago, forkyfork said: above normal temps, below normal snow. ez call 54 minutes ago, nianticct said: Typical Nope not this year Get your shovels ready 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 6 hours ago, MJO812 said: Did he say El Nino is fading? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 2 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Did he say El Nino is fading? Yea he got that wrong 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 14 Author Share Posted November 14 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I had the second week of December as go-time in terms of snow for my area given analogs...still feel that way. It will be a slower than expected progression of the cold to the east given the RNA. Keep it in your pants...for now- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 14 Author Share Posted November 14 Just now, MJO812 said: Yea he got that wrong His subscriptions should be fading....he said it twice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 7 hours ago, MJO812 said: Nope not this year Get your shovels ready 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Keep it in your pants...for now- 9 hours ago, forkyfork said: above normal temps, below normal snow. ez call Hope springs eternal ……. And then ……. as always …… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 poor thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 14 Author Share Posted November 14 56 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That to me looks like a pattern more conducive to overrunning, as any major phasing attempt(s) is/are likely to be sheared out by a compressed field. 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Southeast ridge "trapping systems"? I would love to hear him explain how that works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 Woof 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 53 minutes ago Share Posted 53 minutes ago Wasn't a formal forecast but it was the right idea. Once the front winter onset terminates to inevitable warmup (whenever that happens ...) the question will become, does the aft half get back to business. My present thinking is still leaning on reduced hours and a lot of unscheduled signs flipped to 'Sorry we're closed' (lol). I would never suspend January. Not yet anyway (sniff). But sputtering into an early spring...? why not. One of these flower Februaries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 24 minutes ago Author Share Posted 24 minutes ago 28 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Wasn't a formal forecast but it was the right idea. Once the front winter onset terminates to inevitable warmup (whenever that happens ...) the question will become, does the aft half get back to business. My present thinking is still leaning on reduced hours and a lot of unscheduled signs flipped to 'Sorry we're closed' (lol). I would never suspend January. Not yet anyway (sniff). But sputtering into an early spring...? why not. One of these flower Februaries. I vehemently disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 12 minutes ago Share Posted 12 minutes ago 17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I vehemently disagree. You'll probably be right ... seasonal prediction's not my thing. I'm just basing that on part hunch, part knowledge related to -ENSOs of this bandwidth. But I'm also of the mind that ENSO is often too heavily weighted in the game. NP-GL-NE are modulated by polar index modes; I just see this year as having polar field abandonment issues later on. That leaves the continent S of ~45N vulnerable to early warmth. I'm thinking along the lines of how big spring warmth has a correlation to preceding Ninas. Not really the type of correlation the average engagement in here might accidentally stumble upon, much less ever pursue LOL. So experimental - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 1 minute ago Author Share Posted 1 minute ago 10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: You'll probably be right ... seasonal prediction's not my thing. I'm just basing that on part hunch, part knowledge related to -ENSOs of this bandwidth. But I'm also of the mind that ENSO is often too heavily weighted in the game. NP-GL-NE are modulated by polar index modes, and I just see this year as having polar field abandonment issues later on. I'm thinking along the lines of how big spring warmth has a correlation to preceding Ninas. Not really the type of correlation the average engagement in here might accidentally stumble upon, much less ever pursue LOL. So experimental - Yea, I def. see the rationale, but my issue with this is that, as you intimated, it's based solely on ENSO...which you have opined is becoming less of a forcing mechanism, anyway, but beside the point. My concern with that kind of perfunctory (not meant in a derogatory-dickish way) is that it neglects the potential implications of the stratosphere, which is primed to have an influence this season given the extreme easterly QBO in concert with the high solar output and background cool ENSO. The implication of this, per my deep dive, is that we are especially prone to both episodic +TNH intervals born of stratospheric reflection events, which renders said polar field abandonment moot, and a subsequent major SSW that actually will result in a full reversal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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