bristolri_wx Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 On 4/18/2025 at 7:30 PM, Prismshine Productions said: . Sent from my SM-S156V using Tapatalk The CFS thinks the earth is on fire all the time. CANSIPS DJF 25/26: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 22 Author Share Posted April 22 9 hours ago, bristolri_wx said: The CFS thinks the earth is on fire all the time. CANSIPS DJF 25/26: CANSIPS did a good job last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: CANSIPS did a good job last year. At least the CANSIPS shows the expected variability of temps/weather. I’ve found the CFS is always too warm, even when it’s correct on it being warm, and it doesn’t show much below average anomalies. Even in a climate where we expect places to be warmer, there is usually places that end up cooler as well. The CANSIPS seems to illustrate that premise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 24 Share Posted April 24 Just looked at the CANSIPS. Boy that would be nice. The CFS always seems to show scorched earth. It's interesting that despite the heights being not much BN if at all on the CANSIPS, the surface temps are fairly cold. It might be due to snowpack. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 24 Share Posted April 24 Blend that last 7 winters + some factor of warmer done 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 25 Author Share Posted April 25 17 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Blend that last 7 winters + some factor of warmer done Somewhere in there is a bit of irony when considering the average amount of time you put into the most quotidian of responses on this forum. Anyway, perhaps there is a bit of sarcasm at play, but I am of the option that the larger scale Pacific pattern is in a state of flux, so I'm not at all confident its gong to be very warm relative to the latest 30 year climo period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted May 5 Author Share Posted May 5 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: If we do maintain coolish ENSO this year, don't sleep on 2000-2001 as a contender next season...take a deep dive into the prominent +PNA in the respective seasonal means that burst onto the scene to lower the curtain on a robust Pacific cold phase each in case. QBO seems to aligning well, too. If its warmish ENSO, there were obviously some similarities to 2013-2014 this past season, despite the east coast screwgie on snowfall. The QBO also looks to align with 2014, which just so happened to herald in a warm Pacific interlude following a potent cold phase that began in 2010. No...I don't expect 130" of snowfall in Worcester, MA or 100" in 30 days in Boston, so lets get that out of the way before the bun assault ensues....the validity of the 2013-2014 analog last year was a wonderful lesson in the value of an analog despite some notable differences in sensble weather for particular regions, especially with regard to high variance elements such as snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted May 6 Author Share Posted May 6 I think the key for this season is finally flip the WPO....since 2016-2017, which was mild for other reasons....we have only had one -WPO season, which was 2021-2022...no suprise that was our one KU over the course of the last several years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago Is this the best source out there for precipitation anomalies? https://psl.noaa.gov/data/usclimdivs/ I wish something was available here https://psl.noaa.gov/data/atmoswrit/map/ to create custom climatology periods. https://psl.noaa.gov/data/usclimdivs/ offers several climatological periods but I wish they had a long-term one that went through at least 2010. 1895-2000 is great for a very long-term but wish it went through 2010. 1951-2010 is also solid but wish it started back farther lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 12 hours ago Author Share Posted 12 hours ago 5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Is this the best source out there for precipitation anomalies? https://psl.noaa.gov/data/usclimdivs/ I wish something was available here https://psl.noaa.gov/data/atmoswrit/map/ to create custom climatology periods. https://psl.noaa.gov/data/usclimdivs/ offers several climatological periods but I wish they had a long-term one that went through at least 2010. 1895-2000 is great for a very long-term but wish it went through 2010. 1951-2010 is also solid but wish it started back farther lol. You can use precipitation rate for the middle one..I use it before the other tool updates when I do monthly recaps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago 15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You can use precipitation rate for the middle one..I use it before the other tool updates when I do monthly recaps. Perfect, that was an option I was debating too. Ultimately, I'm not looking to get crazy or too much into the weeds with precipitation, just want to focus on "where it's wet" and "where its dry" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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