2025 ENSO/Winter Speculation

[bristolri_wx]

On 4/18/2025 at 7:30 PM, Prismshine Productions said:

.

Sent from my SM-S156V using Tapatalk
 

The CFS thinks the earth is on fire all the time.  CANSIPS DJF 25/26:

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, bristolri_wx said:

The CFS thinks the earth is on fire all the time.  CANSIPS DJF 25/26:

 

CANSIPS did a good job last year.

[bristolri_wx]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

CANSIPS did a good job last year.

At least the CANSIPS shows the expected variability of temps/weather. I’ve found the CFS is always too warm, even when it’s correct on it being warm, and it doesn’t show much below average anomalies. Even in a climate where we expect places to be warmer, there is usually places that end up cooler as well. The CANSIPS seems to illustrate that premise.

[CoastalWx]

Just looked at the CANSIPS. Boy that would be nice.

The CFS always seems to show scorched earth. It's interesting that despite the heights being not much BN if at all on the CANSIPS, the surface temps are fairly cold. It might be due to snowpack.

[Typhoon Tip]

Blend that last 7 winters + some factor of warmer

done

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Blend that last 7 winters + some factor of warmer

done

Somewhere in there is a bit of irony when considering the average amount of time you put into the most quotidian of responses on this forum.

Anyway, perhaps there is a bit of sarcasm at play, but I am of the option that the larger scale Pacific pattern is in a state of flux, so I'm not at all confident its gong to be very warm relative to the latest 30 year climo period.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If we do maintain coolish ENSO this year, don't sleep on 2000-2001 as a contender next season...take a deep dive into the prominent +PNA in the respective seasonal means that burst onto the scene to lower the curtain on a robust Pacific cold phase each in case. QBO seems to aligning well, too. If its warmish ENSO, there were obviously some similarities to 2013-2014 this past season, despite the east coast screwgie on snowfall. The QBO also looks to align with 2014, which just so happened to herald in a warm Pacific interlude following a potent cold phase that began in 2010.

No...I don't expect 130" of snowfall in Worcester, MA or 100" in 30 days in Boston, so lets get that out of the way before the bun assault ensues....the validity of the 2013-2014 analog last year was a wonderful lesson in the value of an analog despite some notable differences in sensble weather for particular regions, especially with regard to high variance elements such as snowfall.