Spring 2025 Med/Long Range Discussion

[John1122]

Looking at the 30 day forecast for the month of June on accuweather, it shows there being virtually no days above 82 the entire month after the first few days. I think it's derived from the Euro longe range products. I'd normally dismiss it as bluster but it nailed the cool May forecast from mid to late April. It had very few days with highs above 80 this month with several periods of 60s and low 70s, and thats how it played out. 

[Met1985]

7 hours ago, John1122 said:

Looking at the 30 day forecast for the month of June on accuweather, it shows there being virtually no days above 82 the entire month after the first few days. I think it's derived from the Euro longe range products. I'd normally dismiss it as bluster but it nailed the cool May forecast from mid to late April. It had very few days with highs above 80 this month with several periods of 60s and low 70s, and thats how it played out. 

I honestly can't remember when we've had several days here in May with highs only in the 50s.  This weather has been fantastic. 

[John1122]

Just had my daily downpour a few minutes ago. I'd like a little sun for my tomatoes and to dry the ground a little. 

[Matthew70]

A few normal days with warm temperatures then back down to low 80’s & chances of rain.  Sat outside under our lights on the porch last night.  No skitters or bugs.  Quite cool & loved it.  Have also been sitting on our screen porch a lot.  These temps are fantastic & everything is so green! Winning summer so far!

[nrgjeff]

Given the PDO is erratic, their study may be valid. Who knows if the Atlantic will ever cool off? Scientific consensus across all Journals is evolving.

On 5/26/2025 at 5:17 PM, John1122 said:

Do you think they are actual oscillations still? I saw/read the study and articles stating they aren't since they can't be simulated by climate models without factoring in external forces such as volcanoes and greenhouse gasses, but climate models do simulate ENSO correctly without any other input.  The fellow who first used the term AMO now says he was wrong and that it doesn't exist, as an oscillation, nor does the PDO. 

Or, we lack understanding to model the causation. Either way, the historical record may be useful. What's North American 2m temperature do with different states of the Atlantic and Pacific (and combos)? Instead of treating them as predictable oscillators, just take the Ocean temps at face value during this or the upcoming season. 

Both negative is going to be a cold possibly snowy winter for many. Both positive is going to be grill out and drink for many.

If I was going to pick on oscillator to quit, I'd punt the QBO. It's rate of change could be useful, but its steady state has not been useful since George Bush was president.