2025-2026 ENSO

[40/70 Benchmark]

30 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I use 10mb anomaly as a base. It had to clear +1000 over a 8+ day period to qualify. I think that includes some weaker events. 

So it doesn't have to be a reversal...

[EasternLI]

4 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

can also see the jet beginning to extend in the LR as another MJO wave traverses the MC along with strengthening +EAMT... as this wave enters the WHEM in mid-late Jan, we might have another favorable period

EPS is on board with that from the looks of things. Plus it looks like there's actually a slight firing up of the Jet in the near term too. Perhaps models started to hone in on that recently hence the shifts lately? Being just enough to amplify everything just a little bit. Looks as though Santa decided to drop a little bit of high pressure east of the Himalayas in 36 hours. And you can see the jet wake up slightly from being completely dead off Asia previous to that.

 

Longer range, days 10-15. As per the hints from previous EPS runs. A much stronger Siberian high pressure is still looking to pay a visit to the east of the Himalayas. With the stronger jet extension now starting to more clearly present itself in that period. +EAMT event coming into better view now across guidance.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I guess, hardly.

 But obviously even if it hadn’t barely dipped below the 0 line, we know that that’s academic. Even if it had dipped only to, say +1 or +2, do we really think that that would have made a difference? After all that likely would still have been the weakest that early since 1968 and would have still been a a very impressive whopping 30 below avg. So, 30 below vs 31 or 32 below.

 But anyway, I pointed out that it officially barely reversed per the Euro to keep the record straight. Thus, I feel 11/28/25 will likely be added to the list of official major SSWs.

[GaWx]

6 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

We are getting a 5850dm block between England and Iceland in a few days.. a +600dm anomaly. This will be the 2nd +600dm anomaly in a few days, as we just had one over the Aleutian islands. 

It's an east-based -NAO. See how the late November Stratosphere warming correlates to -NAO in about +30-35 days?? I went all the way back to 1948 and found that pattern with a different lag time at different times of the cold season. But this is a major hit. Models didn't pick it up until the last few days.. it will be interesting to see if it's a common bias if an early Winter Stratosphere warming happens again in the next few years. 

Hey Chuck,

 I don’t remember whom and you may not have said it, but I remember a number of posters and/or tweeters saying that the 11/28/25 SSWE was a “reflected” or “reflective” SSWE and that that meant it wouldn’t translate down to the troposphere. I don’t understand what that means, but rather I remember it being discussed and that that was bad news.

What do you know about this or do you know anything about it? Does this mean it really wasn’t reflective or reflected (whatever the correct term is). TIA

[EasternLI]

Speaking of the stratosphere shenanigans. This is one heck of an interesting chart to see come out from that euro extended. We downwell right through January?