2025-2026 ENSO

[40/70 Benchmark]

30 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I use 10mb anomaly as a base. It had to clear +1000 over a 8+ day period to qualify. I think that includes some weaker events. 

So it doesn't have to be a reversal...

[EasternLI]

4 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

can also see the jet beginning to extend in the LR as another MJO wave traverses the MC along with strengthening +EAMT... as this wave enters the WHEM in mid-late Jan, we might have another favorable period

EPS is on board with that from the looks of things. Plus it looks like there's actually a slight firing up of the Jet in the near term too. Perhaps models started to hone in on that recently hence the shifts lately? Being just enough to amplify everything just a little bit. Looks as though Santa decided to drop a little bit of high pressure east of the Himalayas in 36 hours. And you can see the jet wake up slightly from being completely dead off Asia previous to that.

 

Longer range, days 10-15. As per the hints from previous EPS runs. A much stronger Siberian high pressure is still looking to pay a visit to the east of the Himalayas. With the stronger jet extension now starting to more clearly present itself in that period. +EAMT event coming into better view now across guidance.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I guess, hardly.

 But obviously even if it hadn’t barely dipped below the 0 line, we know that that’s academic. Even if it had dipped only to, say +1 or +2, do we really think that that would have made a difference? After all that likely would still have been the weakest that early since 1968 and would have still been a a very impressive whopping 30 below avg. So, 30 below vs 31 or 32 below.

 But anyway, I pointed out that it officially barely reversed per the Euro to keep the record straight. Thus, I feel 11/28/25 will likely be added to the list of official major SSWs.

[GaWx]

6 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

We are getting a 5850dm block between England and Iceland in a few days.. a +600dm anomaly. This will be the 2nd +600dm anomaly in a few days, as we just had one over the Aleutian islands. 

It's an east-based -NAO. See how the late November Stratosphere warming correlates to -NAO in about +30-35 days?? I went all the way back to 1948 and found that pattern with a different lag time at different times of the cold season. But this is a major hit. Models didn't pick it up until the last few days.. it will be interesting to see if it's a common bias if an early Winter Stratosphere warming happens again in the next few years. 

Hey Chuck,

 I don’t remember whom and you may not have said it, but I remember a number of posters and/or tweeters saying that the 11/28/25 SSWE was a “reflected” or “reflective” SSWE and that that meant it wouldn’t translate down to the troposphere. I don’t understand what that means, but rather I remember it being discussed and that that was bad news.

What do you know about this or do you know anything about it? Does this mean it really wasn’t reflective or reflected (whatever the correct term is). TIA

[EasternLI]

Speaking of the stratosphere shenanigans. This is one heck of an interesting chart to see come out from that euro extended. We downwell right through January? 

 

[stadiumwave]

9 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Speaking of the stratosphere shenanigans. This is one heck of an interesting chart to see come out from that euro extended. We downwell right through January? 

 

 

I remember posting that all the early strat warming, -QBO, La Nina winters had JAN as the coldest month in the analog package. The 3 years that had an actual early SSW (this year being one) it took on average 4 weeks before a noticeable affect on pattern. All 3 year had an effect on the troposphere pattern. 

Now, I am not saying JAN will be colder than DEC at all but historically the analogs suggested the odds of having some winter in JAN were higher than average. 

Therefore, if models have not gone bonkers today & holding forth fools gold & the flip is legit, is this a case we all died by model data instead of looking skeptically at the model data? If a more wintry like pattern emerges should we be all thay surprised?

[GaWx]

BAMwx met Brett Waltz with update this morning:

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

51 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Hey Chuck,

 I don’t remember whom and you may not have said it, but I remember a number of posters and/or tweeters saying that the 11/28/25 SSWE was a “reflected” or “reflective” SSWE and that that meant it wouldn’t translate down to the troposphere. I don’t understand what that means, but rather I remember it being discussed and that that was bad news.

What do you know about this or do you know anything about it? Does this mean it really wasn’t reflective or reflected (whatever the correct term is). TIA

I don't know about that, but at the time of the Stratosphere warming long range weeklies were not showing a -NAO in the +30-35 day typical lag time. Maybe they were assuming it all happens at the same time and since the 10mb warming was waning without -NAO, that they thought that was the end of it? There is a spike in -NAO probability +35 days after a late November 10mb warming (it's a different lag time at different times in the cold season.. longer early in the Winter, and in early April it's as soon as +10 days.) 10mb warming events can happen as soon in the year as Sept 30, with a +60 day typical lag time to -NAO. 

Reflective is probably just an adjoining of the upper levels and 500mb. Sometimes they hit at Day+0 together, but the actual -NAO 500mb correlation is up to 3x higher +laggedtime. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

So it doesn't have to be a reversal...

Doesn't have to be a reversal to have impact/correlation

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I use 10mb anomaly as a base. It had to clear +1000 over a 8+ day period to qualify. I think that includes some weaker events. 

Chuck, I have in my notes that it's about 30 days for December warmings, and 45 days for November...maybe it will be closer to 30 days since it was so late in the month of December?

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Doesn't have to be a reversal to have impact/correlation

Cool. Yea, still learning...

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Hey Chuck,

 I don’t remember whom and you may not have said it, but I remember a number of posters and/or tweeters saying that the 11/28/25 SSWE was a “reflected” or “reflective” SSWE and that that meant it wouldn’t translate down to the troposphere. I don’t understand what that means, but rather I remember it being discussed and that that was bad news.

What do you know about this or do you know anything about it? Does this mean it really wasn’t reflective or reflected (whatever the correct term is). TIA

This wasn't a traditional SSW, as started in the troposphere and worked up...

[GaWx]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This wasn't a traditional SSW, as started in the troposphere and worked up...

But it then goes back down into the troposphere?