2025-2026 ENSO

[bluewave]

14 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

135.5 Final ACE

Matches the pattern of a step-down following the other 160+ ACE years like we had in 2024.

While we have been in a new RI and Cat 5 hurricane era last decade, we haven’t been able to replicate the 2003-2005 high ACE 3 years in a row.

But it also means that we haven’t had and really low ACE years like 2013 and 2014. Plus we have been getting the activity lulls from late August into early September before very strong late seasons.

[snowman19]

7 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

30-day is the highest since December 2022! It had actually gone 31 straight months without passing +10, now it's up to +15. Between that, the Oct-Nov N. Hemisphere 500mb pattern, and now a -3c pocket developing in the ENSO subsurface.. you can make a case for a La Nina presence this Winter. I'm curious to see how it goes with the fact that 21 of the last 29 months have been +PNA (CPC), and what happens there going forward. 

Soaring +SOI, cooling subsurface (-3C) and surface SSTs, constructive interference with the -IOD/-PDO and the continued enhanced trades/EWBs in the CPAC leads me to believe this event doesn’t peak until either the tail end of this month or more likely early-mid December. As I said yesterday….a very well coupled canonical La Niña system is in place

[GaWx]

 Here’s today’s GEFS MJO forecast:

 

EPS:

——————-

Here are the 4 closest Niña Nov MJO analogs:

2007:

1998:


1995:

1985:

——————

Now here are the 4 honorable mentions:

2022:

2008:

1989:

 

1983:

@snowman19

[snowman19]

The extremely persistent -AAM continues….it simply doesn’t get anymore “La Niña” than we are now….

[michsnowfreak]

12 hours ago, FPizz said:

I was more thinking 3 days ago vs yesterday vs today.  I dont have access, so do they change this much daily or was this a pretty big one day jump?

They jump a lot. And you now have access 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202511070000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202511170000

 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A[]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Extended (42 days)"%2C"Sub-seasonal"]}

[michsnowfreak]

11 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

NMME page is pure ugly if you like winter. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/monanom.shtml

I would expect nothing less from NMME. if i recall, it was even warmer last winter, and we know how that worked out.

[donsutherland1]

24 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I would expect nothing less from NMME. if i recall, it was even warmer last winter, and we know how that worked out.

And for context: Low skill for much of the CONUS.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

While we have been in a new RI and Cat 5 hurricane era last decade, we haven’t been able to replicate the 2003-2005 high ACE 3 years in a row.

The 2003-05 period is going to be nearly impossible to replicate, in terms of ACE. We had the one-year ACE (2005), two-year ACE (2004-05), and 3-year ACE (2003-05) records set. Also, most Cat 5 storms in one year (2005) and 5 years (2003-07), and until it was tied these last few years, the 2-year, 3-year, and 4-year Cat 5 records. (The 5-year record can be tied next year with one, and broken with 2.)

I'd even argue that the record stretch began in 1998, maybe even 1995. We had six 175+ ACE seasons in 11 years from 1995-2005. In the 20 years since, we've only had 2 (2017 and 2020).

[GaWx]

 Per model consensus progs:

-Nov ‘25 is likely headed toward a strong -NAO Niña Nov like that of 2010, 2000, 1995, 1983, 1973, 1955, and 1950.

-Of those: all but 1973 had BN temp. in Dec at NYC with 4 of 7 having a MB Dec including the last 3 on the list. Though on avg for all winters Feb has been 3 F colder than Dec, the Febs for these 7 averaged 2.4 F warmer than the Decs.

-Of these: 2010, 1973, and 1955 also had a -NAO Oct like 2025.

-Of those, 1995 had a similar Nov MJO.

-Of those: 2010, 1995, and 1955 had a sub -0.25 NAO winter. All 3 of those had a very cold Dec. But of those 3, only 1955 had active sunspots fwiw.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

[snowman19]

34 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Per model consensus progs:

-Nov ‘25 is likely headed toward a strong -NAO Niña Nov like that of 2010, 2000, 1995, 1983, 1973, 1955, and 1950.

-Of those: all but 1973 had BN temp. in Dec at NYC with 4 of 7 having a MB Dec including the last 3 on the list. Though on avg for all winters Feb has been 3 F colder than Dec, the Febs for these 7 averaged 2.4 F warmer than the Decs.

-Of these: 2010, 1973, and 1955 also had a -NAO Oct like 2025.

-Of those, 1995 had a similar Nov MJO.

-Of those: 2010, 1995, and 1955 had a sub -0.25 NAO winter. All 3 of those had a very cold Dec. But of those 3, only 1955 had active sunspots fwiw.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

You can take 1983 off the list. That was a volcanic winter/volcanic stratosphere. (El Chichón; VEI-5 eruption in 1982)

[FPizz]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

They jump a lot. And you now have access 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202511070000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202511170000

 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A[]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Extended (42 days)"%2C"Sub-seasonal"]}

Thanks!  Now to remember to look daily.....