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2025-2026 ENSO


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6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would agree with the boded even independent of GW. I don't expect 100" in a month again anytime soon.

As far as your transition period statement...I agree RE the increased moisture impact, but I still think we need more time to definitively say that the ceiling is lower...especially north of metro NYC.

I would agree with you that we need time to see what the exact ceiling is in this much warmer climate absent an historic volcanic cooling event.

My guess that I have stated is that the ceiling for NYC Central Park station is under 50”.

The ceiling at Boston is probably lower than what occurred in 14-15, 95-96, and 14-15 in the 96” to 110” range.

But I believe the Boston ceiling is higher than the last 7 years. So I wouldn’t be surprised if Boston beat their snowiest season out of the last 7 when they had 54.0” in 21-22. 
 

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13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, that settles that-

We're too southernly. CT shoreline is the dividing line now. If you look at the last 7 years the snow departures from normal are drastically worse in NYC than Boston say. As I think bluewave mentioned nyc is basically past the point of no return in the temperature department. I expect the same to happen to Boston eventually, maybe in 30ish years.

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On 10/5/2025 at 10:28 AM, anthonymm said:

This winter is looking more and more like a worst case scenario for mid atlantic up to nyc (not sure about sne that feels borderline right now). Could be another 2022-2023 for these regions.

If we see a crazy Pacific jet slam into the west coast and knock down any sustained +PNA and destroy any phasing opportunities to bring a good storm up here, I know exactly what to expect. Hopefully in that case it’s a mild winter since the wasted useless cold last winter was ridiculous. If whatever storm we get will be rain anyway, might as well be enjoyable outside. 

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16 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If we see a crazy Pacific jet slam into the west coast and knock down any sustained +PNA and destroy any phasing opportunities to bring a good storm up here, I know exactly what to expect. Hopefully in that case it’s a mild winter since the wasted useless cold last winter was ridiculous. If whatever storm we get will be rain anyway, might as well be enjoyable outside. 

You described verbatim what will happen. I do like a cold winter but it is frustrating to have a january 25 type scenario where you know it's cold enough to snow but you just keep getting unlucky. At least if its a january 23 type thing you know there's no chance anyway.

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12 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

You described verbatim what will happen. I do like a cold winter but it is frustrating to have a january 25 type scenario where you know it's cold enough to snow but you just keep getting unlucky. At least if its a january 23 type thing you know there's no chance anyway.

Last winter was torture here-nothing worse than freezing with some cirrus while watching the Deep South get slammed, then when a storm can finally make it here it turns into a SWFE (we had one decent 4-6” SWFE in Feb but that’s the exception around NYC) or cutter. I’d rather have the 22-23 scenario where like you said it was clear way out in time our window is slammed shut.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

I would agree with you that we need time to see what the exact ceiling is in this much warmer climate absent an historic volcanic cooling event.

My guess that I have stated is that the ceiling for NYC Central Park station is under 50”.

The ceiling at Boston is probably lower than what occurred in 14-15, 95-96, and 14-15 in the 96” to 110” range.

But I believe the Boston ceiling is higher than the last 7 years. So I wouldn’t be surprised if Boston beat their snowiest season out of the last 7 when they had 54.0” in 21-22. 
 

We agree on that...ceiling is still higher than that for Boston.

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1 hour ago, anthonymm said:

We're too southernly. CT shoreline is the dividing line now. If you look at the last 7 years the snow departures from normal are drastically worse in NYC than Boston say. As I think bluewave mentioned nyc is basically past the point of no return in the temperature department. I expect the same to happen to Boston eventually, maybe in 30ish years.

The snowfall departures have actually been similar from DC to Boston last 7 years. 

I never mentioned any point of no return. Just that a warmer storm track and winter background temperatures will mean less snow than we used to get. 

Even in this much warmer climate we have still managed in NYC to avoid a shutout season. But places like Philly and DC have come close in recent years.

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33 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@bluewave How is your MJO signal shaping up so far this month? It looks like the MJO is finally going to propagate eastward out of the IO to the Maritime Continent (phases 5-6) at the end of this month, not very strong amplitude however….

 Related to this, it does look like that starting ~10/8 that the unprecedented during 2nd half of year (back to 1974 ) ~5 1/2 week long clockwise domination of the track will finally end.

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