2025-2026 ENSO

[GaWx]

More (2M temps) from brand new Euro winter outlook:

Oct (brand new) is somewhat mild in much of US similar to Sept outlook with mainly ~2-3.5 F AN (vs 1993-2016 base) in much of the US and mainly ~2 F AN much of NE US and ~2.5-3 AN much of SE US with best chance closer to 1 AN N tier from Wash state to Lakes, where it cooled ~1F from Sept outlook:

Sept outlook was similarly fairly mild in most of the US:

 

For comparison, here was last Oct’s outlook for DJF 24-5: was actually slightly warmer in the NE and we know that verified to be much too warm most of US

 

Actual DJF 2024-5: much colder than Oct Euro forecast!

 

Was Oct ‘24 the warmest Oct. DJF forecast for the NE back to 2017? No, it actually was this one for 2020-1, which like 2024-5 verified to be significantly too warm most of US:

Actual DJF 2020-1: significantly colder than Oct Euro forecast!

@snowman19

[bluewave]

30 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Thanks for the reminder!

Here are the last two runs of Euro DJF H5 maps to compare:

October (just released): very La Ninaish…hopefully this will be wrong just like 2024-5 was! Most negative anomalies in N Hem west of Hudson Bay (Ninaish):

 

September run for DJF: didn’t have as strong of an Aleutian ridge; E US ridge similar:

Looks like a reversion to the mean. The Aleutian ridge and Southeast ridge have become our dominant winter pattern. So the model may just be defaulting to recent climatology.
 

 

[michsnowfreak]

17 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

I believe any transition to structurally lower snowfall at Detroit is at least several decades away. 35° or above winter warmth will likely remain very uncommon for at least the next 20 or more years.

I dont think we'll ever average a DJF temp of 35°, certainly not in the lifetime of anyone currently living. Will probably hit it at a few times, but never average it.

[michsnowfreak]

10 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Guess he's from Little Rock since that's the bullseye for the other Armageddon zone? 

LOL I was going to post the exact same thing. Must be from Arkansas. Guess we somehow dont get snow in Michigan while they're buried in Arkansas 

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

That’s my point. It was easier back during the colder climate era to pull off a series of epic years like that. I agree that it was an amazing run even during that era. But the colder climate made it possible.

I am sure the posters around Boston would be happy seeing a winter or two during the remainder of the 2020s bouncing back closer to the long term average in the low 40s.

How did a colder climate make it possible? Remember places further north are different than NYC. For those in colder climes its more about patterns. You can easily see less snow in a colder winter or more snow in a milder winter.

[GaWx]

New (Oct) Euro precip anomaly forecast for DJF: very slightly wetter in NE/SE and very slightly drier part of Midwest vs Sept outlook and similar to Oct ‘24 outlook for last winter/La Ninaish NN much of E US but BN signal deep SE with lack of dominant ST jet

 

Sept ‘25 outlook for DJF:

Last Oct precip for last winter:

[donsutherland1]

15 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I dont think we'll ever average a DJF temp of 35°, certainly not in the lifetime of anyone currently living. Will probably hit it at a few times, but never average it.

There were 3 prior cases: 1881-1882, 1889-1890, 1931-1932. 2023-2024 (34.8° was a near miss). Suburbs are cooler. 

In the larger picture, I don't think Detroit and its vicinity have any worries that winter will essentially become unrecognizable for decades to come. 

 

[anthonymm]

12 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Big time +EPO this October.. models are showing it for the 2nd half of the month. EPO carries the same sign very well from October to January-February

This winter is looking more and more like a worst case scenario for mid atlantic up to nyc (not sure about sne that feels borderline right now). Could be another 2022-2023 for these regions.

[bluewave]

2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

How did a colder climate make it possible? Remember places further north are different than NYC. For those in colder climes it’s more about patterns. You can easily see less snow in a colder winter or more snow in a milder winter.

The entire I-95 corridor from DC to Boston has been in the same boat. This has been the lowest 7 year combined snowfall total for this area in recorded history. It’s a function of warmer winters and warmer storm tracks.

Past instances with low 7 year snowfall totals like which ended in 1992 were more a function of drier winters and not the record warmth of the last decade. The following years with historic snowfall from 92-93 to 95-96 were during a much colder era which no longer exists.

So it’s unlikely without a major volcanic eruption that we see such a strong rebound in snowfall during the reminder of the 2020s. I would be happy just to see even a smaller rebound off these record 7 year lows in at least one of the remaining 2020s winters.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

That’s my point. It was easier back during the colder climate era to pull off a series of epic years like that. I agree that it was an amazing run even during that era. But the colder climate made it possible.

I am sure the posters around Boston would be happy seeing a winter or two during the remainder of the 2020s bouncing back closer to the long term average in the low 40s.

My point is I'm not convinced we won't see that again. If anything, it's been more common the last 30 years...we just did it 11 years ago. What was the return rate on it pre 1994? We don't know because it had never happened. 

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My point is I'm not convinced we won't see that again. If anything, it's been more common the last 30 years...we just did it 11 years ago. What was the return rate on it pre 1994? We don't know because it had never happened. 

But we haven’t done it since the winters shifted warmer in 15-16 followed by the warmer storm track shift in 18-19. So 11 years ago and 30 years ago featured a much different winter global circulation pattern with the colder temperatures which made those outcomes possible.

Pre-1994 was a colder and more stable climate era which favored snowfall outcomes focused more toward the midrange with fewer big highs and big lows for snowfall.

Especially near NYC Metro, snowfall has become an all or nothing proposition since 1994 with many years well above and well below which was common prior to that era. We have seen nearly no snowfall seasons near the mid range which was common prior to 1994.

So while we experienced all the record snowfall from 1994 to 2015, we didn’t pay as much attention to the very low years in the mix and lack of midrange years.

We were still able to hold onto great snowfall outcomes from 2016 to 2018 around NYC with the storm tracks remaining cold. But just not quite the level of the pre 15-16 era due to the record warmth which became more common starting in December 2015 with went +13.0.

Since 18-19 the continuing much warmer winters and added much warmer storm tracks have featured a dominant cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks. This has lead to the record low I-95 snowfall since then. Most seasons have been much below with very few well above and midrange winters around NYC Metro. 

 

[Daniel Boone]

12 hours ago, GaWx said:

More (2M temps) from brand new Euro winter outlook:

Oct (brand new) is somewhat mild in much of US similar to Sept outlook with mainly ~2-3.5 F AN (vs 1993-2016 base) in much of the US and mainly ~2 F AN much of NE US and ~2.5-3 AN much of SE US with best chance closer to 1 AN N tier from Wash state to Lakes, where it cooled ~1F from Sept outlook:

Sept outlook was similarly fairly mild in most of the US:

 

For comparison, here was last Oct’s outlook for DJF 24-5: was actually slightly warmer in the NE and we know that verified to be much too warm most of US

 

Actual DJF 2024-5: much colder than Oct Euro forecast!

 

Was Oct ‘24 the warmest Oct. DJF forecast for the NE back to 2017? No, it actually was this one for 2020-1, which like 2024-5 verified to be significantly too warm most of US:

Actual DJF 2020-1: significantly colder than Oct Euro forecast!

@snowman19

Euro clearly has a warm Seasonal bias. It has one even medium range albeit to a lesser degree.

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

Euro clearly has a warm Seasonal bias. It has one even medium range albeit to a lesser degree.

Not always though. See 2023-4, for example, which was way too cold along with most other models. They all forecasted a classic Nino Aleutian low and you probably remember that it strangely enough verified closer to a La Ninaish Aleutian high!
 
 I did and posted an analysis here of all of them back to 2017-8. I’ll recheck it asap.

[GaWx]

Sept NOAA PDO continues its rise though it appears to be steadying out for now per the WCS dailies:

2024 -1.57 -1.33 -1.52 -2.11 -2.98 -3.15 -3.00 -2.91 -3.56 -3.80 -3.13 -2.03
2025 -1.28 -1.40 -1.12 -1.15 -1.66 -2.62 -4.15 -3.18 -2.38

[Stormchaserchuck1]

16 hours ago, anthonymm said:

This winter is looking more and more like a worst case scenario for mid atlantic up to nyc (not sure about sne that feels borderline right now). Could be another 2022-2023 for these regions.

I think there will be some cold shots, but it won't be sustained, and will usually happen behind storms, and not in front of them. I don't see a super warm Winter though. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

On 10/4/2025 at 10:57 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This jives with my thoughts for January, as my analogs have a stratospheric reflection event getting underway around mid month, which will trigger strong AK ridging and a +TNH pattern, but those reflection events are preceded by Pacific trough patterns....hence +EPO.

If there is a Stratosphere warming mid-January, it will typically effect the NAO in the 1st half of February. It will be interesting to see how strong -QBO this year ties in with the cold season Stratosphere. It was record cold 10mb last Nov-Feb with strong +QBO. 

[snowman19]

19 hours ago, GaWx said:

New (Oct) Euro precip anomaly forecast for DJF: very slightly wetter in NE/SE and very slightly drier part of Midwest vs Sept outlook and similar to Oct ‘24 outlook for last winter/La Ninaish NN much of E US but BN signal deep SE with lack of dominant ST jet

 

Sept ‘25 outlook for DJF:

Last Oct precip for last winter:

Verbatim that’s showing a very muted STJ which would not be a surprise at all 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

JAS ONI (NOAA): -0.3

JAS RONI: -0.63

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 hours ago, bluewave said:

But we haven’t done it since the winters shifted warmer in 15-16 followed by the warmer storm track shift in 18-19. So 11 years ago and 30 years ago featured a much different winter global circulation pattern with the colder temperatures which made those outcomes possible.

Pre-1994 was a colder and more stable climate era which favored snowfall outcomes focused more toward the midrange with fewer big highs and big lows for snowfall.

Especially near NYC Metro, snowfall has become an all or nothing proposition since 1994 with many years well above and well below which was common prior to that era. We have seen nearly no snowfall seasons near the mid range which was common prior to 1994.

So while we experienced all the record snowfall from 1994 to 2015, we didn’t pay as much attention to the very low years in the mix and lack of midrange years.

We were still able to hold onto great snowfall outcomes from 2016 to 2018 around NYC with the storm tracks remaining cold. But just not quite the level of the pre 15-16 era due to the record warmth which became more common starting in December 2015 with went +13.0.

Since 18-19 the continuing much warmer winters and added much warmer storm tracks have featured a dominant cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks. This has lead to the record low I-95 snowfall since then. Most seasons have been much below with very few well above and midrange winters around NYC Metro. 

 

Yes.....GW must be to blame for not having a top 3 all-time snowfall season over the past 9 years. In fact, if I can't score a 40" event this season, then that solidifies it in my mind.

No doubt-

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

If there is a Stratosphere warming mid-January, it will typically effect the NAO in the 1st half of February. It will be interesting to see how strong -QBO this year ties in with the cold season Stratosphere. It was record cold 10mb last Nov-Feb with strong +QBO. 

No...reflection event mid January...the warming is after that...anytime from later in January into mid Feb. This is just based on my analogs and research....don't mean to speak in absolutes or sound arrogant. Odds are I am wrong.

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes.....GW must be to blame for not having a top 3 all-time snowfall season over the past 9 years. In fact, if I can't score a 40" event this season, then that solidifies it in my mind.

No doubt-

The warmer climate is directly to blame for the lowest 7 year snowfall run along the I-95 corridor from DC to Boston. It’s also the reason that this has been the warmest 10 year winter period in U.S. and Northeast history.

The dramatic temperature jump since December 2015 and storm track shift since 2019 is the reason that no sites have rivaled their seasonal snowfall records set from 92-93 to 14-15.

A few locations were still able to set single storm and monthly records as recently as March 18.

[40/70 Benchmark]

26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The warmer climate is directly to blame for the lowest 7 year snowfall run along the I-95 corridor from DC to Boston. It’s also the reason that this has been the warmest 10 year winter period in U.S. and Northeast history.

The dramatic temperature jump since December 2015 and storm track shift since 2019 is the reason that no sites have rivaled their seasonal snowfall records set from 92-93 to 14-15.

A few locations were still able to set single storm and monthly records as recently as March 18.

Here is a radical suggestion.....hear me out....maybe, just maybe....all-time record snowfall seasons don't grow on trees and are kind of anomalous?? Just a thought- 

This harkens back to my point about how there is nothing that could happen that would ever change your mind....had we never set those records, it would be because of CC....now, since we have set them and haven't kept up with that record pace.....it's because of CC. Any guesses on how it would be rationalized if we do it again....."well, it won't happen again in this newer and even warmer climate". You will use that higher record to rationalize that CC is why we have't topped it yet again. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

My record lowest season is 19.9" in 1979-1980...hell, I had only 20.3 in 1988-1989, 28.2" in 1990-1991, 26.6" in 1991-1992 and 22.5" in 1994-1995.....about 23" in 2011-2012; yet in this new, warmer climate, I have managed at least 32.5" in every season since 2018-2019.

Thank god for the increased moisture of CC.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I am not denying CC....we are warming, but I think some are getting a bit carried away with the attribution piece...especially considering the majority of GW impacts radiational cooling nights. Yes, storm days are also warming...but not to the same degree as the former.

Now, if the 2030's are as lean as the 2020s, then I will capitulate to greater attribution. Now tell me, Chris...what would need to happen for you to question the attribution piece? Another all-time season seems like a rather lofty bar, no??

[PhiEaglesfan712]

25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My record lowest season is 19.9" in 1978-1979...hell, I had only 20.3 in 1988-1989, 28.2" in 1990-1991, 26.6" in 1991-1992 and 22.5" in 1994-1995.....about 23" in 2011-2012; yet in this new, warmer climate, I have managed at least 32.5" in every season since 2018-2019.

Thank god for the increased moisture of CC.

I think you meant 1979-80 for the record lowest season. 78-79 was a record cold and very snowy February. 79-80 checks out as a record low snow season in the Boston area.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I think you meant 1979-80 for the record lowest season. 78-79 was a record cold and very snowy February. 79-80 checks out as a record low snow season in the Boston area.

Yes, thanks. I often get those two seasons mixed up. 1978-1979 stunk up here, too....we missed PD I, but it wasn't record low.

Obviously I understand that these earlier, record lean snowfall seasons were colder......but my point is that I think we need to wait a little longer than a mere decade after a near all-time season to conclusively say that our ceiling is declining here in SNE. I'm not saying that it definitively is not...just to be clear. I am saying that we do not yet know and I need more time to decide.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Here is a radical suggestion.....hear me out....maybe, just maybe....all-time record snowfall seasons don't grow on trees and are kind of anomalous?? Just a thought- 

This harkens back to my point about how there is nothing that could happen that would ever change your mind....had we never set those records, it would be because of CC....now, since we have set them and haven't kept up with that record pace.....it's because of CC. Any guesses on how it would be rationalized if we do it again....."well, it won't happen again in this newer and even warmer climate". You will use that higher record to rationalize that CC is why we have't topped it yet again. 

Gee ya think. The reason we got those all-time record seasonal snowfalls from 1993 to 2015 was due to warming out of the colder and more stable era prior to those years which had less moisture to work with.

So in the early stages of a warming process one of the paradoxes is that the transition years can actually be much better for snowfall than the colder and drier era that it replaced.

But the warming process has progressed past the sweet spot for snowfall with the record December +13.3 and global climate shift. Still had some snowy and warm overlap years from 15-16 to 17-18.

A secondary shift occurred in 18-19 leading to the dramatic changes in the Pacific and much faster Pacific Jet stream. This has caused the last 7 year record low snowfall totals.

Going forward we can see several outcomes. One would be more of the same as the last 7 years with maybe a better year like 20-21 and 21-22 for snowfall at some point during the last 4 years of the 2020s.

Another outcome would be a rebound off the lows and some more consistent better snowfall seasons than the last 7. But it would be very unlikely we revisit the all-time seasonal snowfall records from 1993 to 2015 absent a major volcanic eruption like we last saw in the early 1800s. Since the global climate system has significantly warmed past what was experienced during those years which allowed those outstanding snowfall outcomes.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Gee ya think. The reason we got those all-time record seasonal snowfalls from 1993 to 2015 was due to warming out of the colder and more stable era prior to those years which had less moisture to work with.

So in the early stages of a warming process one of the paradoxes is that the transition years can actually be much better for snowfall than the colder and drier era that it replaced.

But the warming process has progressed past the sweet spot for snowfall with the record December +13.3 and global climate shift. Still had some snowy and warm overlap years from 15-16 to 17-18.

A secondary shift occurred in 18-19 leading to the dramatic changes in the Pacific and much faster Pacific Jet stream. This has caused the last 7 year record low snowfall totals.

Going forward we can see several outcomes. One would be more of the same as the last 7 years with maybe a better year like 20-21 and 21-22 for snowfall at some point during the last 4 years of the 2020s.

Another outcome would be a rebound off the lows and some more consistent better snowfall seasons than the last 7. But it would be very unlikely we revisit the all-time seasonal snowfall records from 1993 to 2015 absent a major volcanic eruption like we last saw in the early 1800s. Since the global climate system has significantly warmed past what was experienced during those years which allowed those outstanding snowfall outcomes.

I would agree with the boded even independent of GW. I don't expect 100" in a month again anytime soon.

As far as your transition period statement...I agree RE the increased moisture impact, but I still think we need more time to definitively say that the ceiling is lower...especially north of metro NYC.

[anthonymm]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, thanks. I often get those two seasons mixed up. 1978-1979 stunk up here, too....we missed PD I, but it wasn't record low.

Obviously I understand that these earlier, record lean snowfall seasons were colder......but my point is that I think we need to wait a little longer than a mere decade after a near all-time season to conclusively say that our ceiling is declining here in SNE. I'm not saying that it definitively is not...just to be clear. I am saying that we do not yet know and I need more time to decide.

SNE is fine. DC up to NYC is cooked. The snow means there are permanently altered. DC will average 7" and nyc 14"ish.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, anthonymm said:

SNE is fine. DC up to NYC is cooked. The snow means there are permanently altered. DC will average 7" and nyc 14"ish.

Well, that settles that-