2025-2026 ENSO

[bluewave]

8 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Yeah, I realized you were using 1991-2020 normals. But on that and even on the 2nd chart, it still looks to me like the bulk of the warming at Phil. has been since the late (or maybe mid) 1980s. 

 Imagine cutting the 2nd chart off in 1987. If so, I don’t think any longterm warming trend would show. Instead, it appears to me like the line would be pretty flat. Do you see what I’m seeing?

Yeah, all the warming at Philly has been since 1981. The climate from 1875 to 1980 was very stable like the rest of the world and the U.S. There  was a slight -0.6° decline in winter temperatures over this period. Since 1981 Philly is up +4.3° during the winters. This is the main reason the U.S. hasn’t seen a top 10 coldest winter since the 1970s.

 

[snowman19]

13 hours ago, George001 said:

We are near the solar maximum, so the exact opposite. I am almost inclined to think this was a brain fart and he meant maximum. I understand the reasons why people spread disinformation, but this is something you can disprove with a quick google search. Usually when people spread bullshit they are a bit smarter about it. I know many of us are extremely anti Bastardi (for good reasons), but even he would never do something like this. The disinformation he spreads takes a bit more than a quick google search to disprove. It’s absolutely still bullshit, but he’s smart enough about it that people buy in and listen to him. I would imagine the guy claiming we are at a solar minimum would have a bunch of tweets correcting him, no?

I happen to think it wasn’t an innocent mistake based on this person from the UK’s past winter forecasts….which always come to the same conclusion about how winter will turn out. I’m pretty sure there were ulterior motives (likes, etc. from his followers) for saying we are at a solar minimum because said person knows darn well that a solar minimum and low geomag = high latitude blocking 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

I happen to think it wasn’t an innocent mistake based on this person from the UK’s past winter forecasts….which always come to the same conclusion about how winter will turn out. I’m pretty sure there were ulterior motives (likes, etc. from his followers) for saying we are at a solar minimum because said person knows darn well that a solar minimum and low geomag = high latitude blocking 

I suspect that he intended it. After all, he corrected himself elsewhere in the thread he started, but ignored the multiple corrections concerning the solar state. If he corrected himself on one issue, there's no plausible reason he would not do so for another error, unless he intended his statement to be what it was.

[George001]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

I suspect that he intended it. After all, he corrected himself elsewhere in the thread he started, but ignored the multiple corrections concerning the solar state. If he corrected himself on one issue, there's no plausible reason he would not do so for another error, unless he intended his statement to be what it was.

That is unfortunate, people who intentionally spread blatant misinformation like this should have their accounts flagged for intentional misinformation, people like this are a major contributor to the downfall of society. It has gotten a lot worse since the pandemic as people spend more time online and less time in the real world.

[bluewave]

First -1.2 IOD in 3 years as they have become much more common over time with the warming SSTs near the Maritime Continent. 
 

 

 

[snowman19]

First -1.2 IOD in 3 years as they have become much more common over time with the warming SSTs near the Maritime Continent. 
 

 
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That strongly supports more of the same eastern IO and Maritime Continent forcing (MJO 4-5-6–7) with all of the warm SSTS in that region. Also supports Niña strengthening/EWBs, enhanced trades

[GaWx]

ACE is now at 37.14 with just a little more to be added from Fernand. This puts 2024 13th highest of the last 75 (83 percentile). The 1951-2024 avg through today is only 22.
 
 However, Invest 90L headed to the W Caribbean is now considered dead. Overall, the models including Euro Weeklies continue to look quite a bit quieter than climo through the 1st half of Sept. If that verifies, we’d quickly fall back down to at least NN ACE. From that point on, it would still remain to be seen whether or not PhiEaglesfan will be right about Erin being about the only big deal this season. I’ll be more than happy to give him kudos if he were to be right. But there’s still such a long way to go, especially in a cold ENSO season, which are often backended. In addition, recent seasons have been getting more backended, quite possibly related to GW.

[snowman19]

[snowman19]

To add to my post from yesterday:

“That is a big part of the reason why I question 2013-14 as a “good analog”. This year has a much better chance of seeing a La Niña in the fall/early winter than 13-14 ever did, 13-14 did not have a -IOD event as we do now, it did not have a strong -PDO; in fact it was a Victoria mode PDO which is a pseudo +PDO setup and was only very weakly negative, it was not -PMM and it was a strongly positive QBO all winter, see my monthly QBO numbers above AND it did not have record low arctic sea ice. The only resemblance to this year that I see is the Atlantic tropical season (**so far**) and the big cold pool south of Greenland and up Davis Straight, other than that, big meh as an analog IMO…..”

Saw on twitter this morning a couple of folks using 13-14 as their analog, which is fine, everyone is certainly entitled to their opinion and I understand their arguments. However, one person in particular (a met) was completely unaware that 13-14 was +QBO and was incorrectly arguing that it was -QBO. If you are going to make an argument for a certain analog at least do your homework and get all your ducks in a row and facts straight. Just more of a reason to take wxtwitter with a huge grain of salt….even some mets there…..

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

 

What Derek Ortt is saying is debatable. Why? Because this has cooled a portion of the W subtropical region much more than the tropics, themselves. That arguably actually makes the W tropical Atlantic, itself, more favorable because this brings their anomalies closer together. Warmer subtropics than tropics tends to stabilize the tropics. Erin has reversed that to some extent.

Edit: To make it more complicated, these storm related coolings have been reversing more quickly in recent years. So, we’ll see how long that subtropical region remains cool.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

 

Bastardi is taking the opposite side of this, which is what I was referring to about warmer subtropics than tropics tending to stabilize the tropics, themselves:

 My take is that those subtropical waters will likely largely warm back up within a couple of weeks and make this cooling a forgotten thing by then.

[snowman19]

Bastardi is taking the opposite side of this, which is what I was referring to about warmer subtropics than tropics tending to stabilize the tropics, themselves:
 My take is that those subtropical waters will likely largely warm back up within a couple of weeks and make this cooling a forgotten thing by then.

All we can do is wait and watch. I will say this however, if we get to the end of September and are still waiting for things to get active with the number of tropical systems/ACE, then I think it will be time to give it up

[GaWx]

13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

All we can do is wait and watch. I will say this however, if we get to the end of September and are still waiting for things to get active with the number of tropical systems/ACE, then I think it will be time to give it up

 If we still have, say, 60 or less ACE by 9/30, then I’d agree that the chances for an active season ACEwise would be way down. However, that wouldn’t mean no chance when considering that 2024, 2020, and 2005 each had 75-82 ACE Oct 1st+. That would mean that 140 would still be technically attainable on the high end.

[GaWx]

 I’ll put this out here for potential discussion purposes. From met. Tony Brite:

 

Edit: one caveat. Tony Brite is assuming 2025 will be just cold neutral ENSO. But per RONI, weak La Niña is actually favored.

 

 Also, my research suggests weak La Niña may actually be worse than cold neutral as far as the chance for a rough US hurricane season.

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 If we still have, say, 60 or less ACE by 9/30, then I’d agree that the chances for an active season ACEwise would be way down. However, that wouldn’t mean no chance when considering that 2024, 2020, and 2005 each had 75-82 ACE Oct 1st+. That would mean that 140 would still be technically attainable on the high end.

The difference between those years and this year is that in those years, the signs were there early on for an active hurricane season. This year is skewed by one storm, almost like Andrew in 1992.

2005 was a record-breaking season from start to finish. Still holds the record for highest ACE, most hurricanes, most major hurricanes, most category 5 hurricanes, and latest storm on record.

The records that 2005 has since lost is most named storms (to 2020) and earliest category 5 hurricane (to 2024).

There is nothing showing there will be an active hurricane season this year. If anything, it looks more like 1992 (with the active Pacific) than 2005, 2020, or even 2024. We won't get 75-82 ACE after October. I can almost assure you that. 75-82 ACE might be the whole season total (1992's total was ~76 ACE, and that was with Andrew skewing the numbers).

[GaWx]

WeatherTiger update is out: opinions?

https://weathertiger.substack.com/p/real-time-2025-atlantic-hurricane?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share

 Cycloneye of Storm 2K said this about this update:

Down to 147 today, will probably dip into the 130-135 range by 9/10 unless we unexpectedly generate some ACE before then. More importantly U.S. ACE is falling as well, odds of 3+ U.S. hurricane landfalls now less than 25%.

 

—————-

My take:

 Seasons with 3+ H hits on the US are considered quite active for the US. They include these over the last 30 seasons (current active era): 2024, 20, 17, 08, 05, 04, 1999, 98

 So, that’s 8 out of 30 or 27% with 3+ US H hits. Thus, he’s saying odds of 3+ have dropped to slightly lower than the normal chance of the active era. That seems to me like a reasonable drop considering the chance of the first prior to Sept 7th is low per models.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I'm so interested to see if we get a cold December this year, because strong -QBO/weak -ENSO analogs strongly support it. I remember those similar 2 conditions in the Fall of 2005, we used the 1989 analog, and it worked out great that Winter. Besides that, there is nothing strongly anomalously warm about the global pattern right now, wrt to previous years. I am going to be in the 70s for highs something like 13/14 August days, which is unusual. We had a warm up in June, but cold H5 was overtop of it, so it was a strong +NAO driven warm up. We aren't just popping ridging out of nowhere, like we did a lot 2020-2024. For all this about 2nd year El Nino's being so warm in the global pattern, you don't hear much about 2nd year La Nina's, and the cooling effect. I think since late November last year it's been a cooler US pattern, relative to global warming and all. Will be interesting to see if it lasts into the Winter. Analogs say that odds are starting to become in that favor, the more we get these cooler patterns through the Fall. 

[snowman19]

This is the strongest -PMM we have seen in some time. This is only going to enhance La Niña development. The new run on the normally severely warm biased BOM model has begun a cave to a La Niña now

[mitchnick]

7 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I'm so interested to see if we get a cold December this year, because strong -QBO/weak -ENSO analogs strongly support it. I remember those similar 2 conditions in the Fall of 2005, we used the 1989 analog, and it worked out great that Winter. Besides that, there is nothing strongly anomalously warm about the global pattern right now, wrt to previous years. I am going to be in the 70s for highs something like 13/14 August days, which is unusual. We had a warm up in June, but cold H5 was overtop of it, so it was a strong +NAO driven warm up. We aren't just popping ridging out of nowhere, like we did a lot 2020-2024. For all this about 2nd year El Nino's being so warm in the global pattern, you don't hear much about 2nd year La Nina's, and the cooling effect. I think since late November last year it's been a cooler US pattern, relative to global warming and all. Will be interesting to see if it lasts into the Winter. Analogs say that odds are starting to become in that favor, the more we get these cooler patterns through the Fall. 

I posted a few weeks ago when this cold snap started showing up on the ensembles that I believe late summer/early fall cold snaps are indicative of a better chance of colder winters. I think I said it wasn't a guarantee, but that colder winters often feature them. Time will obviously tell what happens, but it's at least a reason to remain optimistic at this point if you prefer cold/snowy.

September's updated monthly forecasts "should" start to hone in one way or the other.

[bluewave]

This summer continued the theme of warm to record warm conditions during the 2020s with strong -EPO +PNA patterns. Very warm summers in the Northeast used to be more -PNA +EPO. This is also the strongest Southeast Ridge with this pattern. 
 

Warmer Northeast summer composite prior to 2015-2016 Super El Nino

 

[mitchnick]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This summer continued the theme of warm to record warm conditions during the 2020s with strong -EPO +PNA patterns. Very warm summers in the Northeast used to be more -PNA +EPO. This is also the strongest Southeast Ridge with this pattern. 
 

Warmer Northeast summer composite prior to 2015-2016 Super El Nino

 

Odd. Harrisburg (MDT) is already -1.6 for August thru yesterday and will end the month much lower. June was only +1.3 and July +2.5. The 3 summer months could easily end averaging barely AN.

[bluewave]

19 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Odd. Harrisburg (MDT) is already -1.6 for August thru yesterday and will end the month much lower. June was only +1.3 and July +2.5. The 3 summer months could easily end averaging barely AN.

Can’t really go be departures anymore since the 1991-2020 climate normals are so much warmer. This has been a top 5 and top 10 warmest summer for the Northeast. Place like Long Island have seen one of their warmest summers like all the 2020s summers.

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Top 10 warmest summers 
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2025	74.8	6
2	2010	74.7	0
3	2022	74.6	0
-	2020	74.6	0
4	1999	74.5	0
5	2016	74.4	0
6	2024	74.2	0
7	2011	73.9	0
8	2019	73.8	0
9	2021	73.7	0
10	2018	73.5	0
-	2005	73.5	0

 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Can’t really go be departures anymore since the 1991-2020 climate normals are so much warmer. This has been a top 5 and top 10 warmest summer for the Northeast. Place like Long Island have seen one of their warmest summers.

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Top 10 warmest summers 
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2025	74.8	6
2	2010	74.7	0
3	2022	74.6	0
-	2020	74.6	0
4	1999	74.5	0
5	2016	74.4	0
6	2024	74.2	0
7	2011	73.9	0
8	2019	73.8	0
9	2021	73.7	0
10	2018	73.5	0
-	2005	73.5	0

 

Not here. And who says I can't go by climate normals? People who push an agenda maybe?

[bluewave]

21 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Not here. And who says I can't go by climate normals? People who push an agenda maybe?

Maybe you don’t understand the difference between climate normals and rankings. Normals keep getting warmer with each 10 year update. So it takes a smaller warm departure for a top ten warmest month or season using the warmest 1991-2020 climate normals. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

39 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Odd. Harrisburg (MDT) is already -1.6 for August thru yesterday and will end the month much lower. June was only +1.3 and July +2.5. The 3 summer months could easily end averaging barely AN.

This summer's heat, at its peak in late June and July, was intense. However, outside of that, during the first 2/3 of June and most of August (outside of the heatwave on the 12th-17th) was well cooler than average.

[mitchnick]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Maybe you don’t understand the difference between climate normals and rankings. Normals keep getting warmer with each 10 year update. So it takes a smaller warm departure for a top ten warmest month or season using the warmest 1991-2020 climate normals. 

Dude, I  understand numbers. All you can do is doubledown on the agenda. At least you don't deny it.

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

This summer's heat, at its peak in late June and July, was intense. However, outside of that, during the first 2/3 of June and most of August (outside of the heatwave on the 12th-17th) was well cooler than average.

Right. And those ups and downs during the month create the average.  Considering the ridge location this summer to Harrisburg, those numbers are no big deal for June and July and August will negate much of the AN anomalies. I don't know what Phl had since it's not mby.

[bluewave]

17 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Dude, I  understand numbers. All you can do is doubledown on the agenda. At least you don't deny it.

What’s with you guys and the term agenda. Last time I checked thermometers didn’t have agendas. BTV is currently only +1.9 for the summer and they are tied for warmest summer on record. So it takes a smaller warm departure for record warmth when the current climate normals period is so warm. 
 

Time Series Summary for Burlington Area, VT (ThreadEx) top 10 warmest summers dense rank sorting for temperature 
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2025	72.3	6
-	2020	72.3	0
2	1949	72.2	0
3	2024	72.1	0
-	2018	72.1	0
4	2021	71.9	0
5	2005	71.5	0
6	2016	71.4	0
-	1995	71.4	0
7	1901	71.2	0
8	2022	71.0	0
-	1899	71.0	0
9	2012	70.9	0
-	1999	70.9	0
-	1895	70.9	0
10	1900	70.8	0

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Right. And those ups and downs during the month create the average.  Considering the ridge location this summer to Harrisburg, those numbers are no big deal for June and July and August will negate much of the AN anomalies. I don't know what Phl had since it's not mby.

PHL

June 75.4 (+2.2 1981-2020; +1.9 1991-2020)

July 81.9 (+3.8 1981-2020; +3.2 1991-2020)

August so far is 76.0 (-1.2 on the 1991-2020 average). It looks like we'll end the month with 23 below average days, 7 above average days, and one on the average. Very good chance we finish with our coldest August since 2014, and an outside chance (if we fall below 74.6) the coldest since 2000.

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

What’s with you guys and the term agenda. Last time I checked thermometers didn’t have agendas. BTV is currently only +1.9 for the summer and they are tied for warmest summer on record. So it takes a smaller warm departure for record warmth when the current climate normals period is so warm.
 

Time Series Summary for Burlington Area, VT (ThreadEx) top 10 warmest summers dense rank sorting for temperature 
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2025	72.3	6
-	2020	72.3	0
2	1949	72.2	0
3	2024	72.1	0
-	2018	72.1	0
4	2021	71.9	0
5	2005	71.5	0
6	2016	71.4	0
-	1995	71.4	0
7	1901	71.2	0
8	2022	71.0	0
-	1899	71.0	0
9	2012	70.9	0
-	1999	70.9	0
-	1895	70.9	0
10	1900	70.8	0

 

I am using current climate numbers to determine above or below normal just as previous NWS records established above or below normal readings. That's their protocol. If you want to cherry pick by using or considering different periods to push an agenda, that's fine. But don't be shocked or appalled when someone else points out that's what you're doing. Like it or not, the numbers I posted for MDT are what will be used by the NWS.