2025-2026 ENSO

[bluewave]

8 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Yeah, I realized you were using 1991-2020 normals. But on that and even on the 2nd chart, it still looks to me like the bulk of the warming at Phil. has been since the late (or maybe mid) 1980s. 

 Imagine cutting the 2nd chart off in 1987. If so, I don’t think any longterm warming trend would show. Instead, it appears to me like the line would be pretty flat. Do you see what I’m seeing?

Yeah, all the warming at Philly has been since 1981. The climate from 1875 to 1980 was very stable like the rest of the world and the U.S. There  was a slight -0.6° decline in winter temperatures over this period. Since 1981 Philly is up +4.3° during the winters. This is the main reason the U.S. hasn’t seen a top 10 coldest winter since the 1970s.

 

[snowman19]

13 hours ago, George001 said:

We are near the solar maximum, so the exact opposite. I am almost inclined to think this was a brain fart and he meant maximum. I understand the reasons why people spread disinformation, but this is something you can disprove with a quick google search. Usually when people spread bullshit they are a bit smarter about it. I know many of us are extremely anti Bastardi (for good reasons), but even he would never do something like this. The disinformation he spreads takes a bit more than a quick google search to disprove. It’s absolutely still bullshit, but he’s smart enough about it that people buy in and listen to him. I would imagine the guy claiming we are at a solar minimum would have a bunch of tweets correcting him, no?

I happen to think it wasn’t an innocent mistake based on this person from the UK’s past winter forecasts….which always come to the same conclusion about how winter will turn out. I’m pretty sure there were ulterior motives (likes, etc. from his followers) for saying we are at a solar minimum because said person knows darn well that a solar minimum and low geomag = high latitude blocking 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

I happen to think it wasn’t an innocent mistake based on this person from the UK’s past winter forecasts….which always come to the same conclusion about how winter will turn out. I’m pretty sure there were ulterior motives (likes, etc. from his followers) for saying we are at a solar minimum because said person knows darn well that a solar minimum and low geomag = high latitude blocking 

I suspect that he intended it. After all, he corrected himself elsewhere in the thread he started, but ignored the multiple corrections concerning the solar state. If he corrected himself on one issue, there's no plausible reason he would not do so for another error, unless he intended his statement to be what it was.