2025-2026 ENSO

[40/70 Benchmark]

@bluewaveI'm not sure it's entirely fair to use data back to 1895 when determining what constitutes cold in our contemporary climate.....clearly all that was implied was that last year was "colder" relative to the current climo base. No one argued it would have been cold using older climo. The point is it took more than merely a "mismatch month" to be even near normal using the 1991-2020 climo base. Citing how it ranked in history to data back to the 1800s seems like a deflection to me.

No one is arguing against GW....the argument is that last season was colder than expected relative to modern standards, which ironically enough, tacitly acknowledges climate change. I feel like it will be helpful for you to simply lay out specific seasonal temp ranges for winter per 1991-2020 climo  during the fall if you want to remove any ambiguity like this after the fact. Pointing out how the season ranked back to 1895 to defend your nebulous forecast seems less than ideal and only likely to further obfuscate.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

I'm always surprised by the fact that the winter of 2010-11 didn't end up colder than the winter of 2009-10, especially considering that 10-11 was a strong la nina and 09-10 was a strong el nino.

[GaWx]

29 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I'm always surprised by the fact that the winter of 2010-11 didn't end up colder than the winter of 2009-10, especially considering that 10-11 was a strong la nina and 09-10 was a strong el nino.

The main diff, especially in the SE US, was that Feb of 2011 had a strongly +AO/NAO. Of DJF, F is often the warmest in La Nina.

Edit: Also, in New England and NYC at least, DJF 2010-1 was actually colder than DJF 2009-10.

[snowman19]

The main diff, especially in the SE US, was that Feb of 2011 had a strongly +AO/NAO. Of DJF, F is often the warmest in La Nina.
Edit: Also, in New England and NYC at least, DJF 2010-1 was actually colder than DJF 2009-10.

The thing I remember most about the 10-11 winter was HM nailing that massive NAO/AO blocking over a month before it even happened. It was right around Halloween and he sounded the alarm that the stratosphere and troposphere were “talking” and major high latitude blocking was coming for December and January. And I know people are going to be shocked at this, but I have to give JB credit for accurately calling the complete breakdown of the blocking in February. Around mid-January he warned that winter was going to come to an abrupt end, over and done in the east in February and the NAO/AO were going to collapse and not come back again. The weenies were furious with him, wanted to rip him apart. He turned out to be right

[Stormchaserchuck1]

30-day SOI is back above +5.  17/20 +SOI days in July so far. 

-3c pocket developing in the ENSO-subsurface

[snowman19]

30-day SOI is back above +5.  17/20 +SOI days in July so far. 

-3c pocket developing in the ENSO-subsurface

La Niña cometh

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@bluewaveI'm not sure it's entirely fair to use data back to 1895 when determining what constitutes cold in our contemporary climate.....clearly all that was implied was that last year was "colder" relative to the current climo base. No one argued it would have been cold using older climo. The point is it took more than merely a "mismatch month" to be even near normal using the 1991-2020 climo base. Citing how it ranked in history to data back to the 1800s seems like a deflection to me.

No one is arguing against GW....the argument is that last season was colder than expected relative to modern standards, which ironically enough, tacitly acknowledges climate change. I feel like it will be helpful for you to simply lay out specific seasonal temp ranges for winter per 1991-2020 climo  during the fall if you want to remove any ambiguity like this after the fact. Pointing out how the season ranked back to 1895 to defend your nebulous forecast seems less than ideal and only likely to further obfuscate.

I personally am a fan of using 30 year normals. Its been done that way for over a century, updated every 10 years. Obviously i am a huge fan of old climate data (when they used to write in the books with a pen, complete with a description of the day, that can't be beat). Heck i look at old data more than new data. But i think for normals the 30 year are a good marker. It accounts for recent decadal change of temp, precip, and snow. 

Its always fun to use the period of record too, it shows what longterm things have changed more than others, and certainly you can use moving averages or regression lines to see the ups and downs. Theres always some human error element but threaded records for stations that have moved slightly are still very accurate.

But what i DONT like is starting something at a random picked year. I got so sick of seeing "since 1970" nonsense that I decided, hey I can pick a starting point too, lets go back exactly 100 years. Didn't go over well with a few lol. Bottom line for this area, 1970s-80s were full of abnormally cold winters, just as 1930s-50s were full of abnormally mild ones. Picking a starting point like 1930 or 1970 is going to automatically allow a predictable outcome. Either use POR or current 30 year normals. 

If anything, hating on 30 year normals is doing a disservice to the cc that some are so passionate about. We've seen multiple times when an expected warm period becomes colder than normal and then you get "well if it was the 1800s it wouldn't be colder than normal". OK. Well. I got 37.3" snow in 2022-23 which is below avg. If it was 1960 that was slightly above avg. That's irrelevant.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

34 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

La Niña cometh

ONI may not make the 5-month classification. SSTAs are still pretty warm. What's interesting is the difference between 3-month and 5-month classification in ONI since the CPC changed its guidelines a few years ago. If this year doesn't make 5-consecutive months:

5/32 recent years (since 1994) will have been ENSO Neutral, in 3-month ONI

8/32 recent years (since 1994) will have been ENSO Neutral, in 5-month ONI

RONI/MEI are heading for Weak La Nina I think. MEI may even borderline Moderate Nina in a few monthlies. 

I found that central-ENSO-subsurface has the best classification with North Pacific pressure pattern, so if the subsurface cold water continues to strength, watch out for more -PNA N. Pacific patterns in the coming Fall/Winter. 

Very interesting how the SOI was so neutral at this time last year, and this year it's been positive every month since Oct 2024. SOI is kind of in its own world regarding the evolution of ENSO lately, but I think it's a good indicator. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

11 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@Stormchaserchuck1 Very interesting post/research on why the subsurface is arguing that this is likely going to be a 2nd year “double dip” La Niña:

This La Nina tendency after Strong El Nino's is very interesting. What is happening 1998-2025 that is making it reverse so hard? I would think it's a matter of not having enough data, as ENSO events should run in a continuum but for the last few decades there have been big fluctuations. This happened in the 1970s and 1980s too. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

30-day SOI is back above +5.  17/20 +SOI days in July so far. 

-3c pocket developing in the ENSO-subsurface

I have a new post discussing all of this shortly....good catch.