2025-2026 ENSO

[40/70 Benchmark]

@bluewaveI'm not sure it's entirely fair to use data back to 1895 when determining what constitutes cold in our contemporary climate.....clearly all that was implied was that last year was "colder" relative to the current climo base. No one argued it would have been cold using older climo. The point is it took more than merely a "mismatch month" to be even near normal using the 1991-2020 climo base. Citing how it ranked in history to data back to the 1800s seems like a deflection to me.

No one is arguing against GW....the argument is that last season was colder than expected relative to modern standards, which ironically enough, tacitly acknowledges climate change. I feel like it will be helpful for you to simply lay out specific seasonal temp ranges for winter per 1991-2020 climo  during the fall if you want to remove any ambiguity like this after the fact. Pointing out how the season ranked back to 1895 to defend your nebulous forecast seems less than ideal and only likely to further obfuscate.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

I'm always surprised by the fact that the winter of 2010-11 didn't end up colder than the winter of 2009-10, especially considering that 10-11 was a strong la nina and 09-10 was a strong el nino.

[GaWx]

29 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I'm always surprised by the fact that the winter of 2010-11 didn't end up colder than the winter of 2009-10, especially considering that 10-11 was a strong la nina and 09-10 was a strong el nino.

The main diff, especially in the SE US, was that Feb of 2011 had a strongly +AO/NAO. Of DJF, F is often the warmest in La Nina.

Edit: Also, in New England and NYC at least, DJF 2010-1 was actually colder than DJF 2009-10.

[snowman19]

The main diff, especially in the SE US, was that Feb of 2011 had a strongly +AO/NAO. Of DJF, F is often the warmest in La Nina.
Edit: Also, in New England and NYC at least, DJF 2010-1 was actually colder than DJF 2009-10.

The thing I remember most about the 10-11 winter was HM nailing that massive NAO/AO blocking over a month before it even happened. It was right around Halloween and he sounded the alarm that the stratosphere and troposphere were “talking” and major high latitude blocking was coming for December and January. And I know people are going to be shocked at this, but I have to give JB credit for accurately calling the complete breakdown of the blocking in February. Around mid-January he warned that winter was going to come to an abrupt end, over and done in the east in February and the NAO/AO were going to collapse and not come back again. The weenies were furious with him, wanted to rip him apart. He turned out to be right