2025-2026 ENSO

[Stormchaserchuck1]

21 hours ago, bluewave said:

My guess is that this that the expanding subtropical ridges across the planet from Japan to the Eastern US and Europe as the climate warms are driving these multiple records. Notice how the EA has become so positive over time. So the +NAO could be driven by the expansion of these ridges. Plus the feedback from the record marine heatwaves east of Japan across the Atlantic to the Mediterranean. 

Good post. Very interesting. It looks like a phase started in 2013 with the EA. I have said many times that I started noticing an Atlantic-Pacific correlation in 2013, where cold season -NAO's were coinciding with more -PNA/+EPO and +NAO's were coinciding with more +PNA/-EPO. I theorized that it has something to do with the Summer Arctic ice melt, and us not breaking through 2007-2012 levels relative to the global warming. It's like the NAO is "capped" and the potential energy is spilling into other parts of the globe (just my theory). Also 1998 was a big jump up in the EA and that is exactly when the -PDO phase started. The most linear chart I have ever seen, with less flux, is Germany winter snowfall from 50-60 years ago to present. The line almost fits a perfect -30 degree angle. I wonder if the EA index will ever have a negative phase, it appears to be at highest levels all time in 23-24. Upper latitudes should match mid-latitude warming, but that hasn't happened so much lately. AO and NAO and EPO blocks were still higher in the 50s, 60s, 80s, etc. While we keep seeing record breaking ridging 30-50N. I think the NAO not going to record high levels in its blocks is allowing the SE ridge to occur underneath of it, and ridging in Europe, because the base pattern should favor more extreme upper latitude blocks and it's not occurring, if that makes any sense. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

17 hours ago, roardog said:

Two of those years on that composite are super Nino(23-24 and 82-83) so that probably skews it some. 

It's more about the 91-20 average, and how we are trending compared to it. The first list of years was July 1981-1990. There is -3F on the West coast from that 10-year period. The second list of years was 2021-2024, there is +4F in the same spot.. I'm pointing out that in July there is a +5-6F trend on the west coast compared to 91-20 averages, and that July pattern per current modeling is setting up again, and strong. The 82-83 Strong El Nino is a [minus] in the composite, meaning opposite of it. And 23-24 is [plus], but even in Strong El Nino's, I'm pointing out that the July trend is actually stronger than what a Strong El Nino has produced. It's a point about about the recent global pattern and consistencies from year to year. If July is verifying, it means that recent previous Winter trends are probably more relevant this coming Winter. 

[TheClimateChanger]

On 6/29/2025 at 5:37 AM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

July has been a big trend month around the 91-20 average. The West coast has been extreme. 

Here is July 81-90 vs 91-20, on the front half of the trend

Now here's 2021-on vs the 91-20 average

That's a +5-6F difference in the West coast ridge in July, the most unanomalous month of the year. 

0z EPS through the first half of July has the same pattern occurring. 

Following Winters around the same base period (91-20) [minus 81-90, plus 21-25] look like this, which is relevant because the same global trend in the July pattern is likely to occur this year

I mean this is just an anthropocene signal, no? Looks like something a climate model would spit out with a cooling hole in July over the heavy agricultural areas due to the unnatural densities of corn and soybeans (and the resulting unnatural levels of evapotranspiration) and irrigation effects, enhanced warming over the arid west with rapid winter warming east of the Rockies.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

24 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I mean this is just an anthropocene signal, no? Looks like something a climate model would spit out with a cooling hole in July over the heavy agricultural areas due to the unnatural densities of corn and soybeans (and the resulting unnatural levels of evapotranspiration) and irrigation effects, enhanced warming over the arid west with rapid winter warming east of the Rockies.

The jet stream has been shifting north in general, and that is how it has been playing out. The differences on the West coast in July between the 1980s and now are extreme, more extreme than any ENSO signal or anything like that. It seem to be a one directional change. Although there were some differences in the July pattern 2016-2020. I'm just highlighting how it's enhancing the trend this year, which could possibly mean the same thing that we've been moving through recently, going forward. 

Phoenix is going to break 2013's high temp record today.. there's always a hope that something like 13-14 can develop, as that was part of the "new cycle"... really hot weather in the Southwest Summer-early Fall does correlate with some Winter -EPO/+PNA pattern.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

It's the same stuff for July pattern here.. West coast ridge, south of Aleutian island ridge.