2025-2026 ENSO

[LibertyBell]

24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You need to parse through analog seasons and determine what value there is to be gleaned from each, and then how to apply it to your forecast.

yes and weighing them relative to each other is also important (as is sometimes applying them to one part of the season vs another.)

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/06/strong-consensus-for-marginal-la-nina.html

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Nice write-up Ray. I like how you touched on the PNA and PDO and how we are still riding hard in the negative phase of them. There are actually a lot of similarities to last Winter this year.. last Winter the strong -PDO didn't really correlate.. should be interesting to see what happens this year with near similar PDO, ENSO, and still an active sun. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

54 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Nice write-up Ray. I like how you touched on the PNA and PDO and how we are still riding hard in the negative phase of them. There are actually a lot of similarities to last Winter this year.. last Winter the strong -PDO didn't really correlate.. should be interesting to see what happens this year with near similar PDO, ENSO, and still an active sun. 

I think the common denominators will be poleward ridging in the Pacific and pronounced period(s) of negative NAO in the midst of a decidedly +NAO season....-PNA likely hits hardest when the -NAO shows up, which should allow for a much more active storm track in the NE.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I also think we may see a pretty fast start this December...will get into why later in the season, but it originates from the QBO/solar stuff.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

-PNA likely hits hardest when the -NAO shows up

I agree, I also think there is an above average tendency for -EPO periods to happen with +NAO.. that is an above average precip pattern in the eastern 1/2. Clippers have become less common though, so the low pressure will likely need to tap into the Gulf. I'm getting a few warm things for Dec, although I know the small sample of -Neutral ENSO and -QBO favors a cold December. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I agree, I also think there is an above average tendency for -EPO periods to happen with +NAO.. that is an above average precip pattern in the eastern 1/2. Clippers have become less common though, so the low pressure will likely need to tap into the Gulf. I'm getting a few warm things for Dec, although I know the small sample of -Neutral ENSO and -QBO favors a cold December. 

Agree.

I don't necessarily mean a frigid December...just active and not prohibitively warm.

 

[snowman19]

I think the common denominators will be poleward ridging in the Pacific and pronounced period(s) of negative NAO in the midst of a decidedly +NAO season....-PNA likely hits hardest when the -NAO shows up, which should allow for a much more active storm track in the NE.

I really don’t like even looking at winter at this point in time, that said, at this extremely early stage, I think we can assume a few things going into fall at least….

-PDO, -ENSO (either cold-neutral or weak La Niña; possibly a Modoki, central-based event?, -IOD, -PMM, +AMO, -QBO, still active sun; high solar/geomag, but descending from the solar max peak of last winter, *possible* average to below average Atlantic hurricane season; along with either average to below average ACE, very likely below to well below average arctic sea ice again. Other than that, I wouldn’t venture into guessing the possible oscillation (PNA, EPO, WPO, AO, NAO) states until we are into fall

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I really don’t like even looking at winter at this point in time, that said, at this extremely early stage, I think we can assume a few things going into fall at least….

-PDO, -ENSO (either cold-neutral or weak La Niña; possibly a Modoki, central-based event?, -IOD, -PMM, +AMO, -QBO, still active sun; high solar/geomag, but descending from the solar max peak of last winter, *possible* average to below average Atlantic hurricane season; along with either average to below average ACE, very likely below to well below average arctic sea ice again. Other than that, I wouldn’t venture into guessing the possible oscillation (PNA, EPO, WPO, AO, NAO) states until we are into fall

Going to need to see some huge changes in the subsurface to see a Modoki, but I'm not overly concerned with orientation when ENSO is this weak...just not that important. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

11 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Nice write-up Ray. I like how you touched on the PNA and PDO and how we are still riding hard in the negative phase of them. There are actually a lot of similarities to last Winter this year.. last Winter the strong -PDO didn't really correlate.. should be interesting to see what happens this year with near similar PDO, ENSO, and still an active sun. 

I don't think the PDO is similar to last year. We still have a -PDO, but I think we're heading towards neutral PDO as we get towards the winter. Progress isn't linear. Just look at 2013, which drifted back a bit into the negative during the summer:

2013 -1.10 -1.42 -1.48 -0.72 -0.40 -1.19 -1.34 -1.56 -1.00 -1.65

2025 -1.28 -1.40 -1.12 -1.16 -1.71

 

[snowman19]

I don't think the PDO is similar to last year. We still have a -PDO, but I think we're heading towards neutral PDO as we get towards the winter. Progress isn't linear. Just look at 2013, which drifted back a bit into the negative during the summer:

2013 -1.10 -1.42 -1.48 -0.72 -0.40 -1.19 -1.34 -1.56 -1.00 -1.65

2025 -1.28 -1.40 -1.12 -1.16 -1.71

 

Up to this point in time, I’m not seeing a ton of similarities with 2013

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the common denominators will be poleward ridging in the Pacific and pronounced period(s) of negative NAO in the midst of a decidedly +NAO season....-PNA likely hits hardest when the -NAO shows up, which should allow for a much more active storm track in the NE.

-PNA/-NAO combo sounds a lot like some of those late 60s winters.

[bluewave]

25 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

-PNA/-NAO combo sounds a lot like some of those late 60s winters.

That was in the old days when we didn’t automatically have a Southeast Ridge with a -PNA and -NAO like has been the default recently. 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I don't think the PDO is similar to last year. We still have a -PDO, but I think we're heading towards neutral PDO as we get towards the winter. Progress isn't linear. Just look at 2013, which drifted back a bit into the negative during the summer:

2013 -1.10 -1.42 -1.48 -0.72 -0.40 -1.19 -1.34 -1.56 -1.00 -1.65

2025 -1.28 -1.40 -1.12 -1.16 -1.71

 

MTD June NOAA PDO is likely at ~~-2.3 and full June could easily be down to ~-2.5.

[snowman19]

MTD June NOAA PDO is likely at ~~-2.3 and full June could easily be down to ~-2.5.

Just eyeballing the latest PAC SSTs, the PDO has gone severely negative again

[bluewave]

52 minutes ago, GaWx said:

MTD June NOAA PDO is likely at ~~-2.3 and full June could easily be down to ~-2.5.

Yeah, mostly being driven by the record SSTs across the Western Pacific Basin. Still well above average SSTs off the West Coast Mexico and Central America. This boosted the recent record breaking early RI with Erick. Only a small area of cooler -PDO SSTs off the California Coast.

 

 

[snowman19]

Yeah, mostly being driven by the record SSTs across the Western Pacific Basin. Still well above average SSTs off the West Coast Mexico and Central America. This boosted the recent record breaking early RI with Erick. Only a small area of cooler -PDO SSTs off the California Coast.
 
 

Those cold SSTs off the California coast and Baja are -PMM. This -PDO regime has been nothing short of astounding

[bluewave]

27 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Those cold SSTs off the California coast and Baja are -PMM. This -PDO regime has been nothing short of astounding

Just commenting on the fact that we didn’t used to get +30C warm pools in the EPAC off of Mexico and Central America during past strong -PDOs which drove this record early RI with Erick. So it’s the record and expansive WPAC warm pool driving this -PDO. Rather than in the old days when the -PDO cold pool off of California was much stronger and the WPAC warm pool weaker. It would be great if we had real time 2nd EOF PDO updates to do along with the traditional PDO.

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

That was in the -WPO days when we didn’t automatically have a Southeast Ridge with a -PNA and -NAO like has been the default recently. Flip the WPO and it will be fine.

Agree.

[michsnowfreak]

16 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I also think we may see a pretty fast start this December...will get into why later in the season, but it originates from the QBO/solar stuff.

We are due for a snowy December. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

[edited bluewave post]

Agree.

Flipping the WPO could be more difficult though.. this is a very high correlation and a uniform map.. notice how basically the whole N. Hemisphere is above average SSTA's before a +WPO Winter

Indian Ocean signal is what I like because it's a West-Pacific index, so that makes sense, as the pattern goes from west to east. It is theorized that Indian Ocean SSTs are decadal also, but they do seem to be running a pretty linear trend up since the early 1900s, we are also now in a positive phase. Summer/Fall monsoon there is usually pretty telling about the following Winter WPO. 

Believe it or not, NE Russia has had negative Winter temp anomalies since 2018 (+WPO)

[Stormchaserchuck1]

For fun.. I'm going to keep running forward with my Energy play re: a hotter than previously expected Summer taking hold in the eastern US and Europe (I think somewhat related to the Solar flares and +NAO). I've created a complex mathematical algorithm to predict Futures market moves for the next-day based on historical data.. and all the Energies continue to run an Up future projection as per this method (HO, RB, CL). This was as of Friday close (5pm, but I didn't run the numbers until now). It's for Monday and Tuesday, % shown is the average expected move (actually x2 since it's 2 days). Just for fun.. since not much is going on. I've hit on Heating Oil 2/3 days so far with a combined total of +0.8%. The signal carries into next week. It will be my 4th and 5th day with a "play", and watch long range models possibly trend toward a hotter pattern for July.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Strong +NAO this June.. will probably be +1.0-1.5 for the month. All but a few days in the beginning of the month have been positive. Here's how that rolls forward into July.. 2012's arctic ice melt record might be safe for another year