2025-2026 ENSO

[snowman19]

Except a -PDO and cool ENSO

There’s a very huge difference between saying something is “likely” and being “confident” in a very cold and snowy winter and using 13-14 as an analog in May when the start of winter is 7 months away

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

There’s a very huge difference between saying something is “likely” and being “confident” in a very cold and snowy winter and using 13-14 as an analog in May when the start of winter is 7 months away

I'm just joking...kind of, but its honestly true....tough to go wrong assuming -PDO and la Nina.

[bluewave]

48 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I feel like this past winter, which was a pretty cold but quieter than normal winter for much of the eastern half of the country, was not the best example for the potential that nyc holds. It couldve easily snowed more.

We get snow often here regardless of the overall pattern, and the Lakes help out with tons of mood flakes. Detroit has not seen a sub-20" winter since 1968-69. From November to April this past winter, 80 days saw a T or more of snow. I certainly dont ever want a torch winter, but outside of the freak torch winters, ultimately it is the storm tracks and activeness (or non activeness) of the pattern that dictates how high or low the final snow number will be, moreso than the temps. The temps are much more indicative of how much snowcover and ice cover the winter will have, and that is a direct influence on how the general public will perceive the harshness of the winter.

Im not expert on east coast climate, but the noreasters are what everyone knows about. Im not sure about all the other systems that typically work and dont work for the area, but there has to be more to it than just feast or famine noreasters. Its a much warmer base climate than the Great Lakes to begin with, and always has been, so any rise in temps is not a help. However, I think you are also overlooking the potential cold that can be driven into the country. While it may be a smaller area, we have had brutal arctic blasts nearly every winter (even in '23-24 there was a doozy) that are plunging temps way below normal in areas that already average way colder than nyc. @Stormchaserchuck1 has commented on this cold before as well. For whatever reason though, this cold has continuously been dumping well to the west of the east coast, leaving the east coast with more so scraps of what ends up just seasonable cold. Naturally these blasts are heralded in with winter storm systems. Again, those systems miss nyc. Jostle up the pattern a bit, and things pour in more east, youre going to get more snow. 

The storm track through the Great Lakes again greatly reduced the snowfall potential around the NYC Metro and other coastal regions. This is a great storm track for areas away from the coast as was the case with the record snows from Toronto to Montreal.

The cold focusing closer to the center of the North American continent has been a repeating theme since the big step up in global temperatures in 2015-2016. My guess is that the shrinking cold pool has been limiting the geographic coverage of these Arctic outbreaks. We haven’t had a top 10 coldest month in the Northeast since February 2015.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

The storm track through the Great Lakes again greatly reduced the snowfall potential around the NYC Metro and other coastal regions. This is a great storm track for areas away from the coast as was the case with the record snows from Toronto to Montreal.

The cold focusing closer to the center of the North American continent has been a repeating theme since the big step up in global temperatures in 2015-2016. My guess is that the shrinking cold pool has been limiting the geographic coverage of these Arctic outbreaks. We haven’t had a top 10 coldest month in the Northeast since February 2015.

 

Its a combination of shrinking overage AND predominately -PNA/+NAO/+WPO.

[bluewave]

35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its a combination of shrinking overage AND predominately -PNA/+NAO/+WPO.

The coldest departures have been finding a way to miss the Northeast like with a +PNA in January 2025 and a -PNA in February 2021.  Our last top 10 coldest month back in February 2015 was a strong +NAO. But if the cold pools were bigger in January 2025 and February 2021, then the Northeast would have been much colder. February 1979 was one of the lowest February -PNAs at -1.82 and still stands as the coldest 2 week period since the 1960s on Long Island.

Minimum 14-Day Mean Avg Temperature 
for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	11.4	1979-02-06 through 1979-02-19	0
2	11.5	1979-02-07 through 1979-02-20	0
3	11.9	1979-02-05 through 1979-02-18	0
4	12.5	1979-02-08 through 1979-02-21	0
5	13.4	1979-02-04 through 1979-02-17	0
6	13.8	1979-02-09 through 1979-02-22	0
7	14.6	1967-12-31 through 1968-01-13	0
8	14.8	1967-12-30 through 1968-01-12	0
9	15.0	1979-02-03 through 1979-02-16	0
10	15.4	1979-02-10 through 1979-02-23	0

 

 

[FPizz]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

The storm track through the Great Lakes again greatly reduced the snowfall potential around the NYC Metro and other coastal regions. This is a great storm track for areas away from the coast as was the case with the record snows from Toronto to Montreal.

The cold focusing closer to the center of the North American continent has been a repeating theme since the big step up in global temperatures in 2015-2016. My guess is that the shrinking cold pool has been limiting the geographic coverage of these Arctic outbreaks. We haven’t had a top 10 coldest month in the Northeast since February 2015.

 

What about top 11-30?  Has the NE had any of those since 2015?

[PhiEaglesfan712]

8 minutes ago, FPizz said:

What about top 11-30?  Has the NE had any of those since 2015?

11-20

November 2019 (T15 coldest with 3 other years)

21-30

April 2018 (29th coldest)

November 2018 (25th coldest famous for the mid-month snow event)

June 2023 just missed out at T31 coldest

[FPizz]

5 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

11-20

November 2019 (T15 coldest with 3 other years)

21-30

April 2018 (29th coldest)

November 2018 (25th coldest famous for the mid-month snow event)

June 2023 just missed out at T31 coldest

Thanks!  So it has gotten cold a few times, just not top 10, but top 30 is still in the top 15% or so.  I know warmth has had many months, but was just wondering as the post makes it sound like it never has gotten cold the past decade.  

[bluewave]

42 minutes ago, FPizz said:

What about top 11-30?  Has the NE had any of those since 2015?

The entire Northeast finished at 21st coldest for January 2022. It was the last time we had KU snowstorms from ACY into New England. December 26th through January 8th, 2018 was  our last top 10 coldest 2 week period in NYC. It also coincided with the record 950mb benchmark blizzard. But the pattern flipped warm pretty fast in January. So the 2nd coldest December 26 to January 8 period on record couldn’t last long enough for January 2018 to finish in the top 10 for cold.

[michsnowfreak]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm just joking...kind of, but its honestly true....tough to go wrong assuming -PDO and la Nina.

Just hearing a POSSIBILITY of 2013-14 is orgasmic. A weak knock off would still be a fantastic winter. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

The coldest departures have been finding a way to miss the Northeast like with a +PNA in January 2025 and a -PNA in February 2021.  Our last top 10 coldest month back in February 2015 was a strong +NAO. But if the cold pools were bigger in January 2025 and February 2021, then the Northeast would have been much colder. February 1979 was one of the lowest February -PNAs at -1.82 and still stands as the coldest 2 week period since the 1960s on Long Island.

Minimum 14-Day Mean Avg Temperature 
for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	11.4	1979-02-06 through 1979-02-19	0
2	11.5	1979-02-07 through 1979-02-20	0
3	11.9	1979-02-05 through 1979-02-18	0
4	12.5	1979-02-08 through 1979-02-21	0
5	13.4	1979-02-04 through 1979-02-17	0
6	13.8	1979-02-09 through 1979-02-22	0
7	14.6	1967-12-31 through 1968-01-13	0
8	14.8	1967-12-30 through 1968-01-12	0
9	15.0	1979-02-03 through 1979-02-16	0
10	15.4	1979-02-10 through 1979-02-23	0

 

 

Yea, February 2015 had an immaculate Pacific pattern. I didn't say that the size of the cold pool doesn't matter...I said its BOTH, the pattern and the size of the cold pool. You seem to struggle to accept that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2021-2022 was the only -WPO winter since 2016-2017.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

2021-2022 was the only -WPO winter since 2016-2017.

A big part of the "heatwave near Japan" has kept the WPO +

It doesn't just effect the PNA. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Check this out Ray.. PDO and SSTs across the Tropical Pacific to Indian Ocean in May-July clearly lead it

[bluewave]

11 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, February 2015 had an immaculate Pacific pattern. I didn't say that the size of the cold pool doesn't matter...I said its BOTH, the pattern and the size of the cold pool. You seem to struggle to accept that.

I would have to disagree with you. The shrinking cold pool makes it difficult for any combination of teleconnection indices to deliver the coldest departures into the Northeast during top 20 monthly and seasonal Arctic outbreaks for the CONUS and Northeast.

 Getting a so called right combination of teleconnections becomes statistically more difficult. The closest we came was January 2022 at the 21st coldest January in the Northeast since 2015. If the Arctic outbreak from late December into January 2018 lasted longer than we could have pulled it off.

But this diesnt mean that it’s impossible, just statistically more difficult. We’ll see if we can sneak one in during the coming years. Obviously, it could require a major volcanic event.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I would have to disagree with you. The shrinking cold pool makes it difficult for any combination of teleconnection indices to deliver the coldest departures into the Northeast during top 20 monthly and seasonal Arctic outbreaks for the CONUS and Northeast.

 Getting a so called right combination of teleconnections becomes statistically more difficult. The closest we came was January 2022 at the 21st coldest January in the Northeast since 2015. If the Arctic outbreak from late December into January 2018 lasted longer than we could have pulled it off.

But this diesnt mean that it’s impossible, just statistically more difficult. We’ll see if we can sneak one in during the coming years. Obviously, it could require a major volcanic event.

I don't understand what you are disagreeing with....if getting cold into the northeast is becoming more difficult, but admittedly not impossible, then how on earth do you contest the notion that the pattern has has some influence independent of the background warming??

Makes zero sense.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

A big part of the "heatwave near Japan" has kept the WPO +

It doesn't just effect the PNA. 

That is precisely what I have been saying....the persistent +WPO is a byproduct of the west Pac heatwave.

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't understand what you are disagreeing with....if getting cold into the northeast is becoming more difficult, but admittedly not impossible, then how on earth do you contest the notion that the pattern has has some influence independent of the background warming??

Makes zero sense.

The patterns we get are the function of the warmer temperatures and higher overall 500 mb heights. So the ridging potion at 500mb occupies more real estate than the troughs. Smaller troughs or cold pools have less overall cold.

The Northern Hemisphere cold pool was near the lowest on record this past winter. This is why even though the coldest temperatures on the planet in January were located in the CONUS, amount of cold was so limited that the monthly cold ranking for the CONUS was only the 33rd coldest January. It’s also why Canada was so warm with a record low sea ice on Hudson Bay. The cold into the Northeast was very limited relative to other times the coldest temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere were in the CONUS.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

28 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The patterns we get are the function of the warmer temperatures and higher overall 500 mb heights. So the ridging potion at 500mb occupies more real estate than the troughs. Smaller troughs or cold pools have less overall cold.

The Northern Hemisphere cold pool was near the lowest on record this past winter. This is why even though the coldest temperatures on the planet in January were located in the CONUS, amount of cold was so limited that the monthly cold ranking for the CONUS was only the 33rd coldest January. It’s also why Canada was so warm with a record low sea ice on Hudson Bay. The cold into the Northeast was very limited relative to other times the coldest temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere were in the CONUS.

 

Okay....so the earth is warming. Thanks for the striking revelation.

My point is that while a relica Feb 2015 pattern wouldn't be as cold as it was then, it would still be much colder than this past January. I get the impression that you think that it would be similar to this past January and I have to disagree. The PNA (west-biased) and WPO were ideal for cold delivery to the NE US that season....last year they were not.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

What's impressive about the 2014 and 2015 cold outbreaks is that they didn't really get going until after the new year, and they went on for 2-3 months, not really letting up until the end of March.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

What's impressive about the 2014 and 2015 cold outbreaks is that they didn't really get going until after the new year, and they went on for 2-3 months, not really letting up until the end of March.

I don't think anyone entirely understands the factors that determine how impressive the cold source becomes for a given season...while we can be sure that the trend is for it to become less impressive, its not a perfectly linear progression, so any given year moving forward may have a more impressive reservoir to tap.....though clearly the odds diminsh with time. 

[bluewave]

26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Okay....so the earth is warming. Thanks for the striking revelation.

My point is that while a relica Feb 2015 pattern wouldn't be as cold as it was then, it would still be much colder than this past January. I get the impression that you think that it would be similar to this past January and I have to disagree.

My point is that any winter month when some portion the coldest departures in the Northern Hemisphere are found in the CONUS is becoming less frequent. Plus when you add a less intense cold pool like last January centering in the U.S. the results aren’t as extensive or intense as past instances. 

The cold pool departures last January were much less impressive than the last time the coldest departures were in the CONUS like February 2021 and February 2015.

Getting a replica of 2015 has several challenges that I can see. First, the planet has had two tremendous baseline jumps in background temperature during 2015 into 2016 and an even greater jump the last 2-3 years. So this naturally weakens the cold pool.

Second, the more extensive warming of the WPAC has been associated with a faster Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet. The faster jet keeps sending pieces of energy into the NEPAC blocking causing it to weaken. So we haven’t able to reach the blocking levels there we saw in 2013-2014 and 2014-2015. This was the case over the recent 2024-2025 winter.

Third, getting a weak Modoki El Niño like February 2015 has been a challenge with the WPAC warm pool expansion. So the attempts in 2018-2019 and 2019-2020 didn’t work out.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

My point is that any winter month when some portion the coldest departures in the Northern Hemisphere are found in the CONUS is becoming less frequent. Plus when you add a less intense cold pool like last January centering in the U.S. the results aren’t as extensive or intense as past instances. 

The cold pool departures last January were much less impressive than the last time the coldest departures were in the CONUS like February 2021 and February 2015.

Getting a replica of 2015 has several challenges that I can see. First, the planet has had two tremendous baseline jumps in background temperature during 2015 into 2016 and an even greater jump the last 2-3 years. So this naturally weakens the cold pool.

Second, the more extensive warming of the WPAC has been associated with a faster Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet. The faster jet keeps sending pieces of energy into the NEPAC blocking causing it to weaken. So we haven’t able to reach the blocking levels there we saw in 2013-2014 and 2014-2015. This was the case over the recent 2024-2025 winter.

Third, getting a weak Modoki El Niño like February 2015 has been a challenge with the WPAC warm pool expansion. So the attempts in 18-19 and 19-20 didn’t work out.  

Yes, this also plays into the pattern, which has sucked for the past 8 years or so. I understand that although you won't admit it, you strongly hedge towards this being permanent. I am not there yet.

We will find out in a few years.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I really don't understand how waiting for more data and a larger sample can be wrong.... I don't disagree regarding what has been happening, but I think any implications concerning the future, aside from general warming, need to be tempered for now.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Check this out Ray.. PDO and SSTs across the Tropical Pacific to Indian Ocean in May-July clearly lead it

You mean there is a positive correlation between the equatorial Pacific waters during the summer and the subsequent winter season NAO?

[40/70 Benchmark]

I know Chris was not in this camp, but I remeber when a large contigent of folks were theorizing that the favorable extra tropical Pacific last decade was a semi-permanent change due to CC, too.

[mitchnick]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, this also plays into the pattern, which has sucked for the past 8 years or so. I understand that although you won't admit it, you strongly hedge towards this being permanent. I am not there yet.

We will find out in a few years.

It'll never be permanent thanks to the sun, just a little frustrating to snow weenies 

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

It'll never be permanent thanks to the sun, just a little frustrating to snow weenies 

I don't think it will be, but I am open-minded about it...if we are still stuck in this pattern beyond the next solar min, then I will change my tune. Agree, or disagree, I think I have been pretty consistent about that. I pushed back on all of the west warm pool stuff at first, but that last El Nino changed my mind, so I have shown that I will acquiesce when the data warrants. This isn't a bias at play.

I am on board with the warming....no contest. However, my baseline assumption is that ultimately earth will find a way to offset enough of this to acheieve balance and maintain the osciallations that we have always seen. I unerstand that may be incorrect, but I won't change my stance on that until I am convinced that everything has become stagnant for long enough that the oscillations as we knew them have changed. I know Chris feels that has already happened, but I think there is a pretty convincing case that it has not. I am not moving any goalposts......if this pattern persists throughout the early 2030s, then I will be convinced that the system as I knew it has changed and will offer a tip of the cap to Chris.

[mitchnick]

27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think it will be, but I am open-minded about it...if we are still stuck in this pattern beyond the next solar min, then I will change my tune. Agree, or disagree, I think I have been pretty consistent about that. I pushed back on all of the west warm pool stuff at first, but that last El Nino changed my mind, so I have shown that I will acquiesce when the data warrants. This isn't a bias at play.

I am on board with the warming....no contest. However, my baseline assumption is that ultimately earth will find a way to offset enough of this to acheieve balance and maintain the osciallations that we have always seen. I unerstand that may be incorrect, but I won't change my stance on that until I am convinced that everything has become stagnant for long enough that the oscillations as we knew them have changed. I know Chris feels that has already happened, but I think there is a pretty convincing case that it has not. I am not moving any goalposts......if this pattern persists throughout the early 2030s, then I will be convinced that the system as I knew it has changed and will offer a tip of the cap to Chris.

My reference to the sun was a little further in the future than yours...as in 8,000-10,000 years. Lol  But I have a Cubs fan mentality and try to be optimistic every fall regardless of anything. Snowfall is my main concern and despite warmer temps in 23/24, I  got more snow than last year! 

 

[mitchnick]

SOI is taking a dump fwiw.