2025-2026 ENSO

[snowman19]

Except a -PDO and cool ENSO

There’s a very huge difference between saying something is “likely” and being “confident” in a very cold and snowy winter and using 13-14 as an analog in May when the start of winter is 7 months away

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

There’s a very huge difference between saying something is “likely” and being “confident” in a very cold and snowy winter and using 13-14 as an analog in May when the start of winter is 7 months away

I'm just joking...kind of, but its honestly true....tough to go wrong assuming -PDO and la Nina.

[bluewave]

48 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I feel like this past winter, which was a pretty cold but quieter than normal winter for much of the eastern half of the country, was not the best example for the potential that nyc holds. It couldve easily snowed more.

We get snow often here regardless of the overall pattern, and the Lakes help out with tons of mood flakes. Detroit has not seen a sub-20" winter since 1968-69. From November to April this past winter, 80 days saw a T or more of snow. I certainly dont ever want a torch winter, but outside of the freak torch winters, ultimately it is the storm tracks and activeness (or non activeness) of the pattern that dictates how high or low the final snow number will be, moreso than the temps. The temps are much more indicative of how much snowcover and ice cover the winter will have, and that is a direct influence on how the general public will perceive the harshness of the winter.

Im not expert on east coast climate, but the noreasters are what everyone knows about. Im not sure about all the other systems that typically work and dont work for the area, but there has to be more to it than just feast or famine noreasters. Its a much warmer base climate than the Great Lakes to begin with, and always has been, so any rise in temps is not a help. However, I think you are also overlooking the potential cold that can be driven into the country. While it may be a smaller area, we have had brutal arctic blasts nearly every winter (even in '23-24 there was a doozy) that are plunging temps way below normal in areas that already average way colder than nyc. @Stormchaserchuck1 has commented on this cold before as well. For whatever reason though, this cold has continuously been dumping well to the west of the east coast, leaving the east coast with more so scraps of what ends up just seasonable cold. Naturally these blasts are heralded in with winter storm systems. Again, those systems miss nyc. Jostle up the pattern a bit, and things pour in more east, youre going to get more snow. 

The storm track through the Great Lakes again greatly reduced the snowfall potential around the NYC Metro and other coastal regions. This is a great storm track for areas away from the coast as was the case with the record snows from Toronto to Montreal.

The cold focusing closer to the center of the North American continent has been a repeating theme since the big step up in global temperatures in 2015-2016. My guess is that the shrinking cold pool has been limiting the geographic coverage of these Arctic outbreaks. We haven’t had a top 10 coldest month in the Northeast since February 2015.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

The storm track through the Great Lakes again greatly reduced the snowfall potential around the NYC Metro and other coastal regions. This is a great storm track for areas away from the coast as was the case with the record snows from Toronto to Montreal.

The cold focusing closer to the center of the North American continent has been a repeating theme since the big step up in global temperatures in 2015-2016. My guess is that the shrinking cold pool has been limiting the geographic coverage of these Arctic outbreaks. We haven’t had a top 10 coldest month in the Northeast since February 2015.

 

Its a combination of shrinking overage AND predominately -PNA/+NAO/+WPO.

[bluewave]

35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its a combination of shrinking overage AND predominately -PNA/+NAO/+WPO.

The coldest departures have been finding a way to miss the Northeast like with a +PNA in January 2025 and a -PNA in February 2021.  Our last top 10 coldest month back in February 2015 was a strong +NAO. But if the cold pools were bigger in January 2025 and February 2021, then the Northeast would have been much colder. February 1979 was one of the lowest February -PNAs at -1.82 and still stands as the coldest 2 week period since the 1960s on Long Island.

Minimum 14-Day Mean Avg Temperature 
for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	11.4	1979-02-06 through 1979-02-19	0
2	11.5	1979-02-07 through 1979-02-20	0
3	11.9	1979-02-05 through 1979-02-18	0
4	12.5	1979-02-08 through 1979-02-21	0
5	13.4	1979-02-04 through 1979-02-17	0
6	13.8	1979-02-09 through 1979-02-22	0
7	14.6	1967-12-31 through 1968-01-13	0
8	14.8	1967-12-30 through 1968-01-12	0
9	15.0	1979-02-03 through 1979-02-16	0
10	15.4	1979-02-10 through 1979-02-23	0

 

 

[FPizz]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

The storm track through the Great Lakes again greatly reduced the snowfall potential around the NYC Metro and other coastal regions. This is a great storm track for areas away from the coast as was the case with the record snows from Toronto to Montreal.

The cold focusing closer to the center of the North American continent has been a repeating theme since the big step up in global temperatures in 2015-2016. My guess is that the shrinking cold pool has been limiting the geographic coverage of these Arctic outbreaks. We haven’t had a top 10 coldest month in the Northeast since February 2015.

 

What about top 11-30?  Has the NE had any of those since 2015?

[PhiEaglesfan712]

8 minutes ago, FPizz said:

What about top 11-30?  Has the NE had any of those since 2015?

11-20

November 2019 (T15 coldest with 3 other years)

21-30

April 2018 (29th coldest)

November 2018 (25th coldest famous for the mid-month snow event)

June 2023 just missed out at T31 coldest

[FPizz]

5 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

11-20

November 2019 (T15 coldest with 3 other years)

21-30

April 2018 (29th coldest)

November 2018 (25th coldest famous for the mid-month snow event)

June 2023 just missed out at T31 coldest

Thanks!  So it has gotten cold a few times, just not top 10, but top 30 is still in the top 15% or so.  I know warmth has had many months, but was just wondering as the post makes it sound like it never has gotten cold the past decade.  

[bluewave]

42 minutes ago, FPizz said:

What about top 11-30?  Has the NE had any of those since 2015?

The entire Northeast finished at 21st coldest for January 2022. It was the last time we had KU snowstorms from ACY into New England. December 26th through January 8th, 2018 was  our last top 10 coldest 2 week period in NYC. It also coincided with the record 950mb benchmark blizzard. But the pattern flipped warm pretty fast in January. So the 2nd coldest December 26 to January 8 period on record couldn’t last long enough for January 2018 to finish in the top 10 for cold.

[michsnowfreak]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm just joking...kind of, but its honestly true....tough to go wrong assuming -PDO and la Nina.

Just hearing a POSSIBILITY of 2013-14 is orgasmic. A weak knock off would still be a fantastic winter.