Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago Here's what I'm looking at Ray 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 11 hours ago Author Share Posted 11 hours ago 2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: The decadal NAO may be more realistically 20 years from changing its state. Early 1900s - positive, 60s and 70s - negative, peak positive lately? Maybe so, but we should get thrown a bone around or shortly after solar min. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago 19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Maybe so, but we should get thrown a bone around or shortly after solar min. Yeah, I'm just saying the cycle is long so it could take decades to fully change.. Since Winter 11-12, 83% of the Winter months have had +NAO [CPC]... Given that we are still near the peak and active Solar Max, I would say the odds right now are 70-75% that next Winter is +NAO (DJFM). I agree that it should start coming down after that, but it may take up to 20 years to leave the decadal +NAO state. The 1920s were very positive, and although the 1930s did see a substantial drop, the 1940s and early 1950s went back to positive.. if you smooth that all out, it's about 20 years after a peak phase for it to come down to neutral. I would say the Solar Min in the late 2030s is the big one. Also just being outside in the Winter.. I can feel the Atlantic subtropical jet, see it in the cloud cover and stuff. That's why I've kind of intuitively known that snowfall isn't big for the last 10 or so years. And I still feel that as strong, being near a peak, no change anytime soon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 11 hours ago Author Share Posted 11 hours ago 14 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Yeah, I'm just saying the cycle is long so it could take decades to fully change.. Since Winter 11-12, 83% of the Winter months have had +NAO [CPC]... Given that we are still near the peak and active Solar Max, I would say the odds right now are 70-75% that next Winter is +NAO (DJFM). I agree that it should start coming down after that, but it may take up to 20 years to leave the decadal +NAO state. The 1920s were very positive, and although the 1930s did see a substantial drop, the 1940s and early 1950s went back to positive.. if you smooth that all out, it's about 20 years after a peak phase for it to come down to neutral. I would say the Solar Min in the late 2030s is the big one. Also just being outside in the Winter.. I can feel the Atlantic subtropical jet, see it in the cloud cover and stuff. That's why I've kind of intuitively known that snowfall isn't big for the last 10 or so years. And I still feel that as strong, being near a peak, no change anytime soon. No, I agree with all of this...I wasn't trying to imply that I expect to enter the -NAO muiltidecadal cycle around the next solar min...I meant literally maybe one season that averages more negative. My larger point concerning solar min is that if we don't see a good winter through the next solar min, then I will start to consider CC as a larger contributor. I do not expect a flip in the NAO decadal cycle....PDO, I do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: No, I agree with all of this...I wasn't trying to imply that I expect to enter the -NAO muiltidecadal cycle around the next solar min...I meant literally maybe one season that averages more negative. My larger point concerning solar min is that if we don't see a good winter through the next solar min, then I will start to consider CC as a larger contributor. I do not expect a flip in the NAO decadal cycle....PDO, I do. I definitely expect the PDO to start changing, maybe because of this more active solar period. One "bone" with this is, +3-6 years after a Strong Nino and +2-5 years after 4/5 La Nina's, we see El Nino's happen over La Nina's about 2:1.. I think we have a higher likelihood for El Nino in 26-27 and/or 27-28.. that may help to change the PDO, ideally. I do think this La Nina cycle that we have been in since 98-99 won't last much longer. We had near record winds in the Northern Hemisphere this Spring.. that is +pdo How impressive is the global temperature though with 14 La Nina's and 8 El Nino's in the last 27 years.. if ENSO was more even, it would probably be an even higher global temperature over that time (and it's already kind of gone exponential). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago On 5/11/2025 at 6:16 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Nice progression of the warm pool on the CPC's subsurface Yea big reason I feel we see a brief warm neutral state arise by winter time I do not believe the atmospheric state will have enough tipping to allow a Nino like atmosphere throughout but it could very well be a back forth scenario just as we experienced this year. Unless we start to see some pretty drastic reversals occur within the subsurface over the next two or so months. -AAM in full swing which would indicate at least atmospherically there should be a La Nina signal still well about. This will be important in the coming few months for the hurricane season. As others have mentioned, with a -AAM, we should still be seeing a pretty decent PV as we get into winter although it will be interesting to see what happens if we do indeed flip the QBO state by fall/winter. I would not expect record levels like we saw this past year. I do want to see how the pacific typhoon season sets up have yet to see a storm in the WPAC so we may very well see a record again for the latest system to form. The monsoon looks to be rather weak but starting up toward the end of the month across SE Asia. It looks like we continue with the cool tongue/ -PDO look from the Baja to the central Pac with brief bout of warming into Nino 1+2 and 3. Been awhile since I have looked but thoughts a modoki/ west based la Nina pattern trying to setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 14 hours ago, LibertyBell said: these weird stuck ULL are also responsible for our rainy spring, I'm completely done with them. We have only had appreciable precip within the last maybe 3 weeks at this point. This will be the first month, at least in the BWI area, that we have seen near to above average precip in nearly 9 months. If it weren't for Debby last August we would have had almost a year and some months of below normal precip and we really didn't get a whole lot from Debby that was into the mountains (WV, VA) and Western PA. It is a bit late for us to be getting these ULL patterns but not unheard of. I would love to see us finally get back to at least average over the next couple months and hope that this is not just a fluke situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 1 hour ago, so_whats_happening said: We have only had appreciable precip within the last maybe 3 weeks at this point. This will be the first month, at least in the BWI area, that we have seen near to above average precip in nearly 9 months. If it weren't for Debby last August we would have had almost a year and some months of below normal precip and we really didn't get a whole lot from Debby that was into the mountains (WV, VA) and Western PA. It is a bit late for us to be getting these ULL patterns but not unheard of. I would love to see us finally get back to at least average over the next couple months and hope that this is not just a fluke situation. It's been flooding and I heard a school bus was swept away in the flooding in Maryland. I don't mind 1 inch rainfall events, but 2-3 inch events and more are excessive and indicative of the harm that can be caused by stuck patterns. I've always maintained that floods are more dangerous than droughts. I wish we could get a moderate amount of rain, instead of excessive rainfalls that last many days at a time. I find it interesting how snowfall events are in and out in less than 24 hours (often 12 hours or less) but rainfall lingers for days on end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 6 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Yeah, I'm just saying the cycle is long so it could take decades to fully change.. Since Winter 11-12, 83% of the Winter months have had +NAO [CPC]... Given that we are still near the peak and active Solar Max, I would say the odds right now are 70-75% that next Winter is +NAO (DJFM). I agree that it should start coming down after that, but it may take up to 20 years to leave the decadal +NAO state. The 1920s were very positive, and although the 1930s did see a substantial drop, the 1940s and early 1950s went back to positive.. if you smooth that all out, it's about 20 years after a peak phase for it to come down to neutral. I would say the Solar Min in the late 2030s is the big one. Also just being outside in the Winter.. I can feel the Atlantic subtropical jet, see it in the cloud cover and stuff. That's why I've kind of intuitively known that snowfall isn't big for the last 10 or so years. And I still feel that as strong, being near a peak, no change anytime soon. That's not to say you can't get a -nao in the middle of such a pattern or even that you need a -nao for a big snowfall winter. Just don't expect a sustained period like 02-03 through 10-11 occurring anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: It's been flooding and I heard a school bus was swept away in the flooding in Maryland. I don't mind 1 inch rainfall events, but 2-3 inch events and more are excessive and indicative of the harm that can be caused by stuck patterns. I've always maintained that floods are more dangerous than droughts. I wish we could get a moderate amount of rain, instead of excessive rainfalls that last many days at a time. I find it interesting how snowfall events are in and out in less than 24 hours (often 12 hours or less) but rainfall lingers for days on end. Training is the name of the game with this one not sure I would call this a stuck pattern but to each their own. By definition what length of time do you consider a stuck pattern? Yes when you get 2-3" of rain within 24 hours anytime of the year it won't be a great situation let alone coming after such a long dry period the ground can not quickly revert to a sponge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 1 minute ago, so_whats_happening said: Training is the name of the game with this one not sure I would call this a stuck pattern but to each their own. By definition what length of time do you consider a stuck pattern? Just my own definition of a stuck pattern is precip that lasts for 3 days or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Just my own definition of a stuck pattern is precip that lasts for 3 days or more. That is not a very long time in a cutoff low situation. BTW for your snowfall thought you are talking about two completely different seasons with two completely different jet configurations. Rain in winter is usually in and out just as quick as snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Just now, so_whats_happening said: That is not a very long time in a cutoff low situation. We sure have had many of these, it's the 3rd one that I remember in the last 2 weeks and it looks like a rainout for Memorial Day weekend too. Our reservoirs are over 101 percent now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: We sure have had many of these, it's the 3rd one that I remember in the last 2 weeks and it looks like a rainout for Memorial Day weekend too. Our reservoirs are over 101 percent now. Only has been two ULLs one at the end of April to the first few days of May then we had about 2-3 days of clear weather, small system around last weekend (Friday/Sat) that zipped through and just this one the last about 3 days. It seems like it has been a lot longer but it really hasn't been extraordinary by any means. Again training and orographic lift played huge roles in this issue in western VA/ Eastern WV and Western MD unfortunate for sure but a reality of living near mountains. Again I hope we continue this rainfall we are still nearly 7-8" below average on the water year around here we should have better soil conditions to help with this next bout of rain come next week. Largely this weekend will not be as threatening as once looked a couple days ago too much west flow down here, maybe a little something from Central Pa into Southern NY early Friday into early Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Just now, so_whats_happening said: Only has been two ULLs one at the end of April to the first few days of May then we had about 2-3 days of clear weather, small system around last weekend (Friday/Sat) that zipped through and just this one the last about 3 days. It seems like it has been a lot longer but it really hasn't been extraordinary by any means. Again training and orographic lift played huge roles in this issue in western VA/ Eastern WV and Western MD unfortunate for sure but a reality of living near mountains. Again I hope we continue this rainfall we are still nearly 7-8" below average on the water year around here we should have better soil conditions to help with this next bout of rain come next week. Largely this weekend will not be as threatening as once looked a couple days ago too much west flow down here, maybe a little something from Central Pa into Southern NY early Friday into early Saturday. Those 2-3 days of clear weather were my favorite weather conditions of the entire spring, looks like we'll get another period like that starting Sunday and continuing for a few days after that. I long for years like 2002, very warm to hot and dry with low humidity and clear blue skies. Rainfall is good to get, if it happens for short intervals and only at night, getting that 2 nights a week with showers and thunderstorms would probably be enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Those 2-3 days of clear weather were my favorite weather conditions of the entire spring, looks like we'll get another period like that starting Sunday and continuing for a few days after that. I long for years like 2002, very warm to hot and dry with low humidity and clear blue skies. Rainfall is good to get, if it happens for short intervals and only at night, getting that 2 nights a week with showers and thunderstorms would probably be enough. Since this thread turned into a semi Climate thread warmer oceans and atmosphere allow for more water vapor leading to hefty rain events. Feast or famine seems to be the name of the game as of now with weather patterns. Just hope we have not turned on the faucet like we did in summer of 2018. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago 8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I definitely expect the PDO to start changing, maybe because of this more active solar period. One "bone" with this is, +3-6 years after a Strong Nino and +2-5 years after 4/5 La Nina's, we see El Nino's happen over La Nina's about 2:1.. I think we have a higher likelihood for El Nino in 26-27 and/or 27-28.. that may help to change the PDO, ideally. I do think this La Nina cycle that we have been in since 98-99 won't last much longer. We had near record winds in the Northern Hemisphere this Spring.. that is +pdo How impressive is the global temperature though with 14 La Nina's and 8 El Nino's in the last 27 years.. if ENSO was more even, it would probably be an even higher global temperature over that time (and it's already kind of gone exponential). Yea, maybe we take one last step backwards in that regard next season before the -PDO cycle takes its last breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 11 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That's where I am right now....but like I said, if we keep rolling snake eyes through the next solar min, then I will change my tune. My guess is that the Aleutian Ridge setting multiyear records since 2019 on an annual basis is a combination of factors with the warming from the earlier -PDO eras being an important factor. Sure the location has its origins in the PDO. But the magnitude and the SST warming underneath is a result of the rapidly warming oceans and rising 500mb heights. You can see how many magnitudes of order stronger this ridge is from the cold 1950 to 1976 -PDO era. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: My guess is that the Aleutian Ridge setting multiyear records since 2019 on an annual basis is a combination of factors with the warming from the earlier -PDO eras being an important factor. Sure the location has its origins in the PDO. But the magnitude and the SST warming underneath is a result of the rapidly warming oceans and rising 500mb heights. You can see how many magnitudes of order stronger this ridge is from the cold 1950 to 1976 -PDO era. You mean to tell me you think we will remain in a -PDO pattern as a result of CC for all of eternity? I never would have guessed that....in other news, I have a hunch the sun angle will begin to lower in about 5 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago Seriously, though...its as plausible a theory as anything else. Just going to have to let things play out into the next decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You mean to tell me you think we will remain in a -PDO pattern as a result of CC for all of eternity? I never would have guessed that....in other news, I have a hunch the sun angle will begin to lower in about 5 weeks Since this -PDO cycle only started in 2019 after the 4 to 5 year +PDO and super El Niño, not sure how you can make that statement after only about 7 years. But I suppose you could make the argument that in a new regime of shorter PDO cycling since 1999, a warming WPAC could load the dice for the -PDO phases lasting longer than the +PDO phases. Still have to wait and see if the recent Nino 1+2 warming isn’t the beginning of a shift back to more +PDO in a few years. But with all the warming since the 2014-2015 to 2017-2018 +PDO period, my guess is that it would be a warmer and less snowy version of those years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago 9 minutes ago, bluewave said: Since this -PDO cycle only started in 2019 after the 4 to 5 year +PDO and super El Niño, not sure how you can make that statement after only about 7 years. But I suppose you could make the argument that in a new regime of shorter PDO cycling since 1999, a warming WPAC could load the dice for the -PDO phases lasting longer than the +PDO phases. Still have to wait and see if the recent Nino 1+2 warming isn’t the beginning of a shift back to more +PDO in a few years. But with all the warming since the 2014-2015 to 2017-2018 +PDO period, my guess is that it would be a warmer and less snowy version of those years. This is pure nonsense....I don't care that you can dig up articles supporting it. My statement about 7 years was in relation to CC drastically lowering snowfall....what I said was 7 years ago I had just had two months of over 60" of snow within a 3 year window, so I'm not sure how on earth one could confidently conclude that CC was lowering my snowfall at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago I fininished 2014-2015 with 115" and 2017-2018 was 88.5"....my long term average is in the lower 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago Like I said to Chuck, can't say confidently we are switching to +PDO yet, but I think its close...within the next few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is pure nonsense....I don't care that you can dig up articles supporting it. My statement about 7 years was in relation to CC drastically lowering snowfall....what I said was 7 years ago I had just had two months of over 60" of snow within a 3 year window, so I'm not sure how on earth one could confidently conclude that CC was lowering my snowfall at that point. I don’t do extended snowfall forecasts for your area north of Boston. My statement on the declining snowfall is based on the region around NYC. But if you run the snowfall data back to the late 1800s, it shows a steady decline with ups and downs along the way. Plus if they measured snowfall the same way as they did before the 1990s, it would show higher totals prior to that and a steeper decline. Since snowfall in the old days was under measured by 15-20% due to less frequent measurements. NYC is moving into an era when the seasonal average snowfall will dip under 20” on a long term basis once we get into the coming decades. The last 7 years are a preview of the future. But we could see a bounce off the bottom of recent years before resuming the decline in the 2030s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago 19 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: agreed, that was always the main issue with that setup and made it a lot more precarious. if it had a true +PNA, easy KU. one could attribute that to CC, but we were never going to see perfect +PNAs with every setup. I think a lot of it is regression to the mean i agree with you that if this is still happening in a decade, it's time to have a serious convo 19 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's been time for about 7 years ... just imho - 19 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Just to be clear....I am waiting on deciding whether or not CC is already having a larger impact on snowfall than simple regression throughout the NE coast, NOT whether or not CC is taking place....or whether or not CC is already impacting snowfall in the coastal mid atl. 15 minutes ago, bluewave said: I don’t do extended snowfall forecasts for your area north of Boston. My statement on the declining snowfall is based on the region around NYC. But if you run the snowfall data back to the late 1800s, it shows a steady decline with ups and downs along the way. Plus if they measured snowfall the same way as they did before the 1990s, it would show higher totals prior to that and a steeper decline. Since snowfall in the old days was under measured by 15-20% due to less frequent measurements. NYC is moving into an era when the seasonal average snowfall will dip under 20” on a long term basis once we get into the coming decades. The last 7 years are a preview of the future. But we could see a bounce off the bottom of recent years before resuming the decline in the 2030s. We were referring to NE coastal areas when the 7 year comment was made. Like I have said previously, modern snowdfall is undermeasured more often today than you imply due to mixed precipitation events and many observers not utilizing the 6 hour swipe method. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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