2025 Severe Weather General Discussion

[WxUSAF]

Upgraded to SLGT for today. MCD says a watch unlikely but some severe gusts possible. I’m ready for some rain. 

[WxUSAF]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Upgraded to SLGT for today. MCD says a watch unlikely but some severe gusts possible. I’m ready for some rain. 

Radar looks like trash. Looked much healthier around 2-3pm.

[high risk]

Worth noting that even though the rotation was very weak, and no warning occurred (or were needed), those overnight storms were actually supercells.     Pretty tough to do that here during the overnight, except during tropical remnant events.

[Eskimo Joe]

8 hours ago, high risk said:

Worth noting that even though the rotation was very weak, and no warning occurred (or were needed), those overnight storms were actually supercells.     Pretty tough to do that here during the overnight, except during tropical remnant events.

It's almost like there's been pulses of EMLs riding on little shortwaves over the mountains. Quite impressive.

[Eskimo Joe]

Okay, I've seen enough. CAMs look good for tomorrow, and we have a solid front slicing into the heat dome. Tomorrow looks like a legit severe weather episode from DC towards Trenton tomorrow. Likely wet microbursts and isolated, but intense flash flooding.

The only two fail modes I could see are abundant debris clouds from overnight convection to our NW, or somehow a bunch of stuff fires over the I-64 corridor and mucks up the overall mean flow into the line.

Otherwise, I'm in.

[Kmlwx]

24 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Okay, I've seen enough. CAMs look good for tomorrow, and we have a solid front slicing into the heat dome. Tomorrow looks like a legit severe weather episode from DC towards Trenton tomorrow. Likely wet microbursts and isolated, but intense flash flooding.

The only two fail modes I could see are abundant debris clouds from overnight convection to our NW, or somehow a bunch of stuff fires over the I-64 corridor and mucks up the overall mean flow into the line.

Otherwise, I'm in.

Pigs are flying, folks!!!! Man your battlestations! 

[Eskimo Joe]

D2 MOD flood risk from EZF to PHL.

[WxUSAF]

29 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

D2 MOD flood risk from EZF to PHL.

Our own @wxmvpete wrote the disco. It’s intense.

[high risk]

3 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Okay, I've seen enough. CAMs look good for tomorrow, and we have a solid front slicing into the heat dome. Tomorrow looks like a legit severe weather episode from DC towards Trenton tomorrow. Likely wet microbursts and isolated, but intense flash flooding.

The only two fail modes I could see are abundant debris clouds from overnight convection to our NW, or somehow a bunch of stuff fires over the I-64 corridor and mucks up the overall mean flow into the line.

Otherwise, I'm in.

I do think that we could go to SLGT for severe, as there is a fair amount of downdraft CAPE in the forecast soundings.  I think that’s contingent on the initial batch of Precip being an organized southeast-moving line  If there are scattered cells earlier in the afternoon, as shown by a few solutions, our severe chances are likely lower.  But as discussed above, the flooding threat tomorrow is real. 

[Eskimo Joe]

28 minutes ago, high risk said:

I do think that we could go to SLGT for severe, as there is a fair amount of downdraft CAPE in the forecast soundings.  I think that’s contingent on the initial batch of Precip being an organized southeast-moving line  If there are scattered cells earlier in the afternoon, as shown by a few solutions, our severe chances are likely lower.  But as discussed above, the flooding threat tomorrow is real. 

I think an ENH for wind is justified.

[yoda]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I think an ENH for wind is justified.

Who are you?

[high risk]

Interesting that some of the evening CAM guidance initiates convection in the area MUCH earlier than previous runs.   This would probably wipe out most of the SVR threat, but it could lead to multiple rounds of storms that enhance the flooding threat.

[high risk]

5 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I think an ENH for wind is justified.

  with 2" PW values?     That's pretty tough to do.       

Our path to a SLGT is yesterday's 12Z HRRR or NAM Nest, with a semi-organized line arriving just after peak heating.   The majority of the solutions this evening, which break out convection way early and not very organized, would likely only justify a MRGL for a few wet microburst events early in the event before it becomes a heavy rain situation.

[yoda]

SLGT risk up... 0/5/15

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0100 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

   Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
   THE MID ATLANTIC AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few strong storms, capable of mainly damaging winds, are possible
   across the Mid-Atlantic and Arkansas during the afternoon. Severe
   wind and hail producing storms are also expected across the northern
   Rockies into the central High Plains.

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper trough will traverse the Northeast while an upper ridge
   persists over the Central U.S. and broad upper troughing becomes
   established over the Interior West today. A surface low will develop
   across the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon with the passage of an
   embedded mid-level impulse within the broader trough, which will
   encourage widespread strong thunderstorm development. Across
   portions of Arkansas and immediate adjacent areas, a weak impulse
   will support the development of at least scattered strong
   thunderstorms amid ample buoyancy. Across the northern Rockies into
   the northern and central High Plains, an embedded mid-level impulse
   will result in the initiation of several thunderstorm clusters,
   which will move over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Given
   adequate buoyancy and shear in these regions, strong to severe
   storms are possible.

   ...Mid Atlantic...
   Thunderstorms should develop during the afternoon, as surface
   temperatures warm well into the 80s F, and quickly translate
   eastward given 40+ kts of 500 mb westerly flow. Surface dewpoints
   will reach well into the 70s F, supporting 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE
   despite mediocre mid-level lapse rates. The strong instability and
   30-40 kts of effective bulk shear will encourage the development of
   strong multicells and perhaps a transient supercell. Damaging gusts
   are the main threat, though an instance or two of hail are possible,
   mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours.

[mappy]

9 hours ago, high risk said:

Interesting that some of the evening CAM guidance initiates convection in the area MUCH earlier than previous runs.   This would probably wipe out most of the SVR threat, but it could lead to multiple rounds of storms that enhance the flooding threat.

I noticed that on the morning news futurecast. Last evening’s weather hit showed storms after 4-5pm. This morning had them around 1-2pm.