Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[BooneWX]

Of course, without a +PNA you have nothing. Needs some positive trends there.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Sunday

[BornAgain13]

Back to cold now for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day on the GFS

[Upstate Tiger]

Nothing encouraging looking at the PNA and NAO today.  NAO looks to be heading into positive territory while the PNA is heading negative after the 15th.

Ops does still show lots of cold in Canada with occasional intrusions into the U.S. and even the SE over the next two weeks followed by warm ups.

I see the mountains getting some NWSF with these.  One just gets the impression that the models are still having a hard time reflecting the MJO.

Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised to see winter stay in this relatively dry rinse and repeat typical in a Nina or turn really cold in the east in January.

I am rooting for the latter!

 

[kvegas-wx]

3 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Sunday

Been a while since southern OH racked up snow like this.  That's a great looking stripe on top of snow last night and last weekend.  Lots of preseason forecasts had that TN and OH valley area as the sweet spot.  So far it is 100% verifying.

[olafminesaw]

Perhaps some potential behind the front for a little snow for NE NC and SE VA

[calculus1]

^ If I had a nickel for every time NE NC and SE VA got in on the snow action the past several years...

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Christmas torch cancel?

[BooneWX]

19 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Christmas torch cancel?

No Roxboro jackpot, toss it out

[BornAgain13]

Oh man if only the Christmas Miracle from the 18z GFS came true. 

[KChuck]

2 hours ago, BornAgain13 said:

Oh man if only the Christmas Miracle from the 18z GFS came true. 

 

 

[olafminesaw]

10 hours ago, BornAgain13 said:

Oh man if only the Christmas Miracle from the 18z GFS came true. 

[NorthHillsWx]

5 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Some sort of CAD wedge will develop and we’ll be stuck at 45 degrees and drizzle all day. Book it. 

[BooneWX]

The ensembles are really trying to get a -NAO established around Christmas. We just need some signs of life from the Pacific. 

[NorthHillsWx]

1 hour ago, BooneWX said:

The ensembles are really trying to get a -NAO established around Christmas. We just need some signs of life from the Pacific. 

PNA has now trended to insane negative levels around Christmas. It stays negative into January. A +PNA and -NAO with MJO remaining favorable would feed families but alas, the pacific gives us the middle finger 

[wncsnow]

1 hour ago, BooneWX said:

The ensembles are really trying to get a -NAO established around Christmas. We just need some signs of life from the Pacific. 

We just need the Pacific to be neutral not super negative 

[Upstate Tiger]

15 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

PNA has now trended to insane negative levels around Christmas. It stays negative into January. A +PNA and -NAO with MJO remaining favorable would feed families but alas, the pacific gives us the middle finger 

That’s what I was noticing yesterday.  Hopefully it trends the other way in the next few runs.  

[WinstonSalemArlington]

December 28: Not great yet, but nowhere near the endless, unfrozen torch some feared. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Christmas torch cancel?

[BooneWX]

35 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Christmas torch cancel?

There’s nothing about my extended forecast that looks like a torch to me. Above average? Sure. Upper 50s? Far from tanning by the pool. 

[suzook]

41 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Christmas torch cancel?

Looks warm to me. Sure not a torch, but definitely warm.

[BooneWX]

Each day this week, the long range has slowly walked back on the magnitude of the warmth. I’m starting to think it’s generally just a reshuffle and reload. The cold will remain bottled up on this side of the globe and with a -NAO developing, it’s poised to CAD itself right down the spine of the apps. Without the Pacific cooperating, everything will be transient but what’s new? I don’t the think the MJO reflects results as much as folks want to believe it does, but it certainly folds heavily into modeling. We’ve been in the cod for the past few days and it’s actually been leaning on the phase 5 side of the circle. It looks like it wants to charge back into 8 here shortly, so don’t be shocked this week when Christmas torch becomes Christmas seasonal with a frigid New Year holiday. 

[BornAgain13]

1 hour ago, BooneWX said:

Each day this week, the long range has slowly walked back on the magnitude of the warmth. I’m starting to think it’s generally just a reshuffle and reload. The cold will remain bottled up on this side of the globe and with a -NAO developing, it’s poised to CAD itself right down the spine of the apps. Without the Pacific cooperating, everything will be transient but what’s new? I don’t the think the MJO reflects results as much as folks want to believe it does, but it certainly folds heavily into modeling. We’ve been in the cod for the past few days and it’s actually been leaning on the phase 5 side of the circle. It looks like it wants to charge back into 8 here shortly, so don’t be shocked this week when Christmas torch becomes Christmas seasonal with a frigid New Year holiday. 

Already a big change on the 12z GFS with temps... chilly Christmas. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Already a big change on the 12z GFS with temps... chilly Christmas. 

Yep 

[Upstate Tiger]

20 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Yep 

Would love to see the Miller B show up again that the GFS was showing on a few earlier runs for the period right after Christmas. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Just for the record, for today’s I-95 corridor event, the Euro AI was supreme to just about everything from nearly 6 days out 

[BooneWX]

The 12z GEFS shows an interesting evolution of the Scandinavian ridge. Its retrogrades west quickly, establishing a strong -NAO, which then pumps the cold air over Quebec down the east coast while our death ridge gets beaten into oblivion. Despite that, there’s enough of a gradient that one has to think it would open the opportunity for either a miller b or an overrunning setup that would favor the upper southeast and yes, east of the apps for once. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Larry Cosgrove: “

With many model forecasts and human projections of a major warm-up across the lower 48 states for the holiday period, those like me who want a big cold wave or heavy snow and ice event have to wait out at least 6 days of some cases of record warmth before an Arctic intrusion returns to the lower 48 states. The question is, could the warmth last further? If you based odds on the model guidance alone, the odds on a cAk placement below the Canadian border are about 3 in 7. The American and European series are closest to the analog support, but the GEFS and ECMWF versions have members that show a return to a broad +PNA/-AO/-NAO signature that would return the eastern half of the continent to an extremely cold scenario with chances for snow in the Great Lakes and the Eastern Seaboard.

 

Cautions I apply to the forecast: do NOT make assumptions based on the Madden-Julian Oscillation predictions (see what I mean about all of that "Phase 8" nonsense that was the talk of the internet?). Remind yourself that for an MJO cold influence in North America, the lead impulse should be between Phases 6 and 1, be very strong, and have at least some connection to the polar westerlies. The numerical model Wheeler diagrams are not useful in this regard. Also, for a Sudden Stratospheric Warming alteration in sensible weather, consider that the 10MB warm anomaly should be on the American side of the North Pole, should foreshadow a high-latitude blocking signature and will occur 2 to 4 weeks following the SSW. You would want to see either some splitting or persistent positioning of the warming pool. Using previous stratospheric warming projections, I suspect that the lower 48 states are going to feel another cold wave in the Christmas/New Year hammock week, and maybe 5 to 7 days beyond. On the idea that we see a climatologically-favored "January Thaw, the middle of next month could be as warm as what we are looking at by this weekend. But I concur with the analog set that the latter third of the first month of the new year will turn quite cold, perhaps lasting through February with better potential for ice, snow further south and east than before.

 

Clues to look at: the expanded snow and ice cover, similarities to 2007 and 2024-25. Around Christmas or shortly thereafter, winter should fight its way back into the U.S.”

[wncsnow]

I don't see much to be excited about. CAD could keep us from torching but no winter weather threats on the horizon. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Yawn