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Mid to long range discussion- 2025


wncsnow
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Nothing encouraging looking at the PNA and NAO today.  NAO looks to be heading into positive territory while the PNA is heading negative after the 15th.

Ops does still show lots of cold in Canada with occasional intrusions into the U.S. and even the SE over the next two weeks followed by warm ups.

I see the mountains getting some NWSF with these.  One just gets the impression that the models are still having a hard time reflecting the MJO.

Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised to see winter stay in this relatively dry rinse and repeat typical in a Nina or turn really cold in the east in January.

I am rooting for the latter!

 

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1 hour ago, BooneWX said:

The ensembles are really trying to get a -NAO established around Christmas. We just need some signs of life from the Pacific. 

PNA has now trended to insane negative levels around Christmas. It stays negative into January. A +PNA and -NAO with MJO remaining favorable would feed families but alas, the pacific gives us the middle finger 

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1 hour ago, BooneWX said:

The ensembles are really trying to get a -NAO established around Christmas. We just need some signs of life from the Pacific. 

We just need the Pacific to be neutral not super negative 

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15 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

PNA has now trended to insane negative levels around Christmas. It stays negative into January. A +PNA and -NAO with MJO remaining favorable would feed families but alas, the pacific gives us the middle finger 

That’s what I was noticing yesterday.  Hopefully it trends the other way in the next few runs.  

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