Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[BornAgain13]

12z GFS is a solid Hit for Northern NC/Southern VA

[wxduncan]

5 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

12z GFS is a solid Hit for Northern NC/Southern VA

Clown maps?

[BornAgain13]

1 minute ago, wxduncan said:

Clown maps?

 

[wncsnow]

[BooneWX]

Crazy the atmosphere knows exactly where I-40 is

[BornAgain13]

12z GFS for Monday morning still has some snow showing on guidance. Something to watch after Fridays event. 

[BornAgain13]

This is just for Mondays possible event

[strongwxnc]

10 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I could see this as being the option that happens...

 

[mclean02]

I will be happy with just a ground coating here in Charlotte and hope we all get some snow ❄️ 

[BornAgain13]

12z CMC blossoms light snow on Monday similar to 12z GFS. The GFS finally has someone tag along with it for Monday 

[wncsnow]

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[BornAgain13]

12z UK is a narrow hit for northern NC and southern VA for Friday. Nothing for Monday. 

[BooneWX]

Just imagine if we could get the vort for Monday to go negatively tilted. Canadian tries to amp it up late, which is why the clown maps are better down east but a very close call to a big dog almost forum wide.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[wncsnow]

Let's see what the Euro says 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[wncsnow]

Euro is about the same. A little better for Triangle north

[NorthHillsWx]

Mondays event has a much higher ceiling than Friday. If you get more of a negative tilt to the trough you can really crank a coastal. At this point I’d say less likely given the progressive nature of the pattern and it being NS dominant but with a -NAO and well timed Arctic high this is one that could develop quickly on modeling. Definitely interesting to watch tho a lot to work out with 2 systems this weekend. Fridays event is pretty straight forward. Kind of an overrunning event with transient HP. Earlier arrival and heavier rates equals better chance of seeing flakes. I’d say the ceiling is a stripe of 1-3” likely in southern Virginia. Without much upper level support and a strung out system, plus marginal cold with a transient HP, I think you’re on hopium if you think it would be more than that. Can say if you’re in western and the northern half of piedmont areas in NC and the southern half of VA you definitely stand the chance of at least minimal accumulation. Would be fun given the early November system to see most of the state with at least 1 accumulating snowfall before Christmas even if just marginal 

[wncsnow]

Euro clown. 

[GaWx]

The 12Z Euro has an off the coast low on 12/8 but it’s significantly too warm for snow per 850s/there’s no cold air connection at the surface and it’s actually dry over much of NC outside of far SE part of the state (it would need to get stronger for NC snow per this):