Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[strongwxnc]

First screen grab of the year. Of course it’s hr288.


.

[BooneWX]

1 hour ago, strongwxnc said:

First screen grab of the year. Of course it’s hr288.


.

I’d cash out. It could be 105 every day through March after that. Dec 2018 all over again. 

[strongwxnc]

I’d cash out. It could be 105 every day through March after that. Dec 2018 all over again. 

Last area wide thump.


.

[BooneWX]

My suspicion is that we’re about to see a flurry of activity on the models as we move into Dec. Y’all make sure you’re stocked up on coffee, those 0Z runs trickle in late 

[eyewall]

5 hours ago, strongwxnc said:

Last area wide thump.


.

should be a nice hit for DC.

[wncsnow]

Of course its gone this run. Needing another needle in a haystack to win

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Prepare to Qualify

[BornAgain13]

18z GFS has the system for next Friday/Saturday. Mostly ICE but some snow.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[BornAgain13]

11 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

The cold air is definitely close by. Not saying it will hook up with the moisture but its something to keep an eye on.

[BooneWX]

1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said:

The cold air is definitely close by. Not saying it will hook up with the moisture but its something to keep an eye on.

Goes to show how helpful a glacier to the north can be. A 1029 high just isn’t going to cut it 90% of the time but it would be advecting some seriously refrigerated air and incredibly low dew points. End of the week definitely bares watching, the GFS isn’t on an island with this idea, there’s been flashes from other model data. Buckle up. 

[BornAgain13]

0z GFS , brings a Moderate Snow/ICE event to parts of NC/VA next Friday morning taken verbatim 

[wncsnow]

Cold rain after cold rain on the Euro the next few weeks. Give me warm and dry if its not going to snow. 

[Jmoon]

27 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Cold rain after cold rain on the Euro the next few weeks. Give me warm and dry if its not going to snow. 

I know man. So close but so far. Always the case. Hopefully things trend colder for us in future runs.

[BornAgain13]

6z Euro this morning came in colder for next Fridays storm. Something to watch

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

18 hours ago, wncsnow said:

Of course its gone this run. Needing another needle in a haystack to win

What is it with you??? Must you always criticize every positive post? You remind me of an old poster..... Widreman. 

[suzook]

7 hours ago, wncsnow said:

Cold rain after cold rain on the Euro the next few weeks. Give me warm and dry if its not going to snow. 

Normally I would agree, but we are in a drought around me. We seriously need some rain.

[Met1985]

I thought the Euro looked pretty good. Yeah some cold rain now but the pattern is ripe to go colder with snow as we get further into December.  

[Met1985]

Just now, suzook said:

Normally I would agree, but we are in a drought around me. We seriously need some rain.

Yeah we just had wildfires up here the past few weeks as it's gotten too dry. Getting into a drought this time of year isn't ideal but luckily the weather doesn't may any attention to our wants lol.

[eyewall]

7 hours ago, wncsnow said:

Cold rain after cold rain on the Euro the next few weeks. Give me warm and dry if its not going to snow. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[wncsnow]

1 hour ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

What is it with you??? Must you always criticize every positive post? You remind me of an old poster..... Widreman. 

Only posting what I see, sorry its not rainbows and butterflies. It's not like im making it up 

[BooneWX]

Step down process is doing what it does…upper Midwest and Northeast first, then Kentucky, WV and parts of the mid Atlantic on Tuesday…Friday? Remains to be seen but could be us, or could be close with no cigar. Either way, it’s usually the third storm in the pattern change that initiates our shots.

[BooneWX]

I may crash out if Dec doesn’t produce lol


.

[BooneWX]

Aside, does anyone know where I can access the Google DeepMind model? It crushed it this summer and I’d really like to see how it performs this winter. 

[Met1985]

33 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Step down process is doing what it does…upper Midwest and Northeast first, then Kentucky, WV and parts of the mid Atlantic on Tuesday…Friday? Remains to be seen but could be us, or could be close with no cigar. Either way, it’s usually the third storm in the pattern change that initiates our shots.

Also setting up a nice snowpack already in the Midwest is only going to increase our chances of cold.

[wncsnow]

50 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Step down process is doing what it does…upper Midwest and Northeast first, then Kentucky, WV and parts of the mid Atlantic on Tuesday…Friday? Remains to be seen but could be us, or could be close with no cigar. Either way, it’s usually the third storm in the pattern change that initiates our shots.

That step down process really worked for us last year.. we got nailed before the gulf coast got theirs.. oh wait

[BooneWX]

I’m not going to post clowns for the GFS because of how useless it’s been of late, but 12Z is a bit colder. Verbatim it’s a major mess of a storm north of I-85. 3-5” of snow for many, followed by a 1/4-1/2” of ice (Friday into Saturday).

[BooneWX]

12z Icon: icy mess