Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Historic Florida cold 

[eyewall]

15 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Lock it in! 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

The Growing Season is ending 

[BooneWX]

Could be a fun 12z suite today. The high country and foothills of eastern TN seem to be locked in to a healthy NW flow event, but if that energy at the base of the trough can slow down a smidge and gain some negative tilt, many more of us are at least going to get some token/mood flakes east of the mountains. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[BooneWX]

Just now, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Yesterday’s video was great. It seems like the cold risks late month are increasing as long as the Pacific cooperates. Either way, I’m glad we’re back to serious discussions before Veterans Day. That’s a rarity of late. 

[olafminesaw]

Could be quite the impressive temp drop between Sunday night and Monday morning, from 70 to wind chills in the low to mid 20s

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[yotaman]

Tuesday mornings low is getting colder and colder as we get closer. Looks like we could get a hard freeze if it gets any colder.

[BooneWX]

12Z wasn’t a good suite if you wanted token flakes east of the mountains. The energy just doesn’t dig enough to be a factor other than providing the enhancement needed for a nice NW flow event.

Other than that, how about the Euro showing sea effect snowfall off the OBX in November?


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[GaWx]

 Wow! By a good margin today’s run has the weakest SPV and highest % of members with a major very early season SSW in late Nov or early Dec: would likely be the earliest major SSW since Nov of 1968!

 

Before this, the weakest SPV was on this run from 2 days ago:

[Daniel Boone]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Wow! By a good margin today’s run has the weakest SPV and highest % of members with a major very early season SSW in late Nov or early Dec: would likely be the earliest major SSW since Nov of 1968!

 

Before this, the weakest SPV was on this run from 2 days ago:

Amazing stuff showing up Larry.

[BooneWX]

You really can’t ask for more.


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[olafminesaw]

[WinstonSalemArlington]

The Color Purple (Monday)

[GaWx]

Here’s my current NWS forecast low for Nov 11th:

MONDAY NIGHT  
CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 30.

- If this verifies, it would be the earliest freeze at KSAV since the 11/7 32 low of 2010
-If it gets down to the predicted 30, that would be the coldest so early in the season since way back in 1976!

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=chs

[olafminesaw]

The GFS is on its own little island. Shocker. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

So, you want more November cold?

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Next week, Orlando may see its earliest temperature in the 30s since 1993. This is big time cold coming. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Veterans Day

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Tuesday, CMC

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[olafminesaw]

Someone's excited! 

Glad we're back in the hunt though we are likely chasing token first flakes at best 

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

This run backed off on Amounts. We'll see if that's a trend by 0z. I'd expect it to uptick as Lakes are very warm so plenty Upslope to be fed.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[GaWx]

 The fall foliage here is headed to a significantly earlier peak than average. This is the earliest I can recall in many years! Recent years have peaked in the last week of Nov or Dec.

 Anyone else have a fall leaf report?