Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Warmer mid November?

[wncsnow]

The first 2 weeks of November have went from possibly below average/ near average to above average if we avoid clouds/rain. 

[Daniel Boone]

8 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Warmer mid November?

Blocking breaking down along with MJO Propagation into warmer phases .

[Upstate Tiger]

After the warmup both GFS and Euro remarkably both show a strong cold front traversing the country in a couple of weeks.   

[GaWx]

Today’s Euro Weeklies update:

1) 4th run in a row with a very weak SPV late Nov/early Dec with today’s having ~25% of members with a very early major SSW, the highest yet of any run!

 

2) After having warmed up significantly in the E US the last 3 runs for most of November/early Dec from the cold Nov 2-9 and then mainly NN Nov 10-Dec 7 of the Oct 26 run, today’s has cooled back down notably for much of Nov 10-Dec 7 and is downright cold for the new week (Dec 8-14) with a solid -AO for Nov 24-Dec 14. Keep in mind that the Euro often has trouble seeing cold too far out. So, seeing BN all the way out at weeks 5-6 in today’s run is noteworthy and will be followed closely for future trends.

500 mb week 6:

 

2m temps week 6:

 

[WinstonSalemArlington]