Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[Upstate Tiger]

Starting to see snowfall pop up on the long range GFS along the northern border states.  Also seeing a gulf hurricane showing up pretty consistenly at two weeks. 

Would love to see a nice hurricane free fall this year!

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Fireplace Mornings  

 

[GaWx]

17 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Fireplace Mornings  

 

It would be nice if it would also get down here for a change. We still have had no dewpoints below the lower 70s since June.

 
**8/21/25 Edit for correction: I totally missed that KSAV had hourly dewpoints as low as 62 during the afternoon of August 18th in between the morning and evening/overnight 70s. So, technically, I’m wrong despite my dewpoints often being a few degrees higher due to being closer to the coast than KSAV.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

I love it how Van Denton and Fox 8 Triad have a 12-day forecast

[BooneWX]

15 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Fireplace Mornings  

 

Just in time for week 1 of college football. 

[olafminesaw]

15 hours ago, GaWx said:

It would be nice if it would also get down here for a change. We still have had no dewpoints below the lower 70s since June.

Looks like a fishy reading but technically Savannah-Hilton head airport dropped to  a dewpoint of 62 on Monday, breaking the streak of dewpoint at or above 68 degrees, which ranks third highest all time

[suzook]

16 hours ago, GaWx said:

It would be nice if it would also get down here for a change. We still have had no dewpoints below the lower 70s since June.

Definitely been a humid summer in GA, but the ATL area being farther from the coast, helps keep the dews a touch lower.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[WinstonSalemArlington]

2 hours ago, BooneWX said:

Just in time for week 1 of college football. 

Gonna be chilly at Friday night football games 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

Looks like a fishy reading but technically Savannah-Hilton head airport dropped to  a dewpoint of 62 on Monday, breaking the streak of dewpoint at or above 68 degrees, which ranks third highest all time

 Thanks as I missed those 60s dewpoints at KSAV Mon afternoon. So, I need to retract what I said about no dewpoints below the low 70s since June. Where I live is closer to the coast and thus typically has higher dewpoints, but not that much higher. Thus I just edited my earlier post for this correction.

 My point was that the bulk of the cool, dry airmasses of earlier August didn't reach down here. That I’m still saying has been the case.

 

[olafminesaw]

30 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Thanks as I missed those 60s dewpoints at KSAV Mon afternoon. So, I need to retract what I said about no dewpoints below the low 70s since June. Where I live is closer to the coast and thus typically has higher dewpoints, but not that much higher. Thus I just edited my earlier post for this correction.

 My point was that the bulk of the cool, dry airmasses of earlier August didn't reach down here. That I’m still saying has been the case.

 

Yes!  Trying to confirm that you are correct in observation that such sustained high humidity is unusual, not to be pedantic  (although I know if anywhere, this is the place to be pedantic)

[NorthHillsWx]

This August has been incredible. Though there was a high humidity stretch with all the rain, we still haven’t broken 90, RDU cracked it once (barely) and it now looks LIKELY we will make it through the month of August with zero 90-degree days. I honestly don’t know if that has ever happened in my lifetime. Sure RDU won’t report a zero 90 August but this has to be one of the coolest August’s in RDU history 

[olafminesaw]

13 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

This August has been incredible. Though there was a high humidity stretch with all the rain, we still haven’t broken 90, RDU cracked it once (barely) and it now looks LIKELY we will make it through the month of August with zero 90-degree days. I honestly don’t know if that has ever happened in my lifetime. Sure RDU won’t report a zero 90 August but this has to be one of the coolest August’s in RDU history 

Ensembles project it at second coolest of this century. Behind 2004. Greensboro is project at coolest since 1996

[WinstonSalemArlington]

3 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

Ensembles project it at second coolest of this century. Behind 2004. Greensboro is project at coolest since 1996

How has this summer verified relative to the summer outlooks issued last spring? Did anyone predict this longrange? 

[olafminesaw]

41 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

How has this summer verified relative to the summer outlooks issued last spring? Did anyone predict this longrange? 

Here's what the CPC put out in May. We should end up slightly above average I think for the whole summer so not bad

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[GaWx]

 The rain is still falling lightly this evening.  Though a portion of the W part of the county received ~3”+ (centered on the junction of I-16 and I-95) necessitating a flash flood warning, my amount so far hasn’t added to that much…probably ~0.25” so far. That gets me to an amazing ~14.65” MTD with none of that from a TC! But that’s not the end of it!

From KCHS NWS office, a flood watch has been issued for its entire area:

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE  
AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND LINGER INTO SATURDAY. WAVES OF LOW  
PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONT AS SPOKES  
OF VORTICITY PASS THROUGH ALOFT. THIS COUPLED WITH BUILDING  
PWATS OF 2.25-2.50" AND WEAK TO MODERATE LEVELS OF INSTABILITY  
WILL SUPPORT NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH THE  
PERIOD. 

THE STEERING FLOW WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME WITH MODIFIED  
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING LONG/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES DEVELOPING FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON AND LINGERING INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT  
CONVECTION WHERE WARM CLOUD PROCESSES WILL SUPPORT INTENSE  
RAINFALL RATES, POSSIBLY >3 IN/HR AT TIMES, GIVEN THE RICH,  
TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. THIS MAY LEAD TO  
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN THE CORRIDOR ROUGHLY  
SOUTH OF A REIDSVILLE-SPRINGFIELD-WALTERBORO-MONCKS CORNER LINE  
WHERE 20CM SOIL MOISTURE VALUES ARE RUNNING IN THE >98TH  
PERCENTILE AS OF THE 18 AUGUST ANALYSIS.  

GIVEN THE SATURATED SOIL MOISTURE PROFILES IN PLACE AND THE  
INTENSE HOURLY RAINFALL RATES THAT ARE POSSIBLE, THE RISK FOR  
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE ELEVATED INTO SATURDAY EVENING,  
ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL CORRIDOR WHERE THE EVENING HIGH TIDES  
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD ENHANCED THE FLOOD THREAT. A  
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY  
SUNDAY EVENING. STORM TOTALS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM  
2-4" WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 6".