GaWx Posted Monday at 08:44 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:44 PM On 10/5/2025 at 2:20 AM, WxWatcher007 said: That’s by far the worst spot too given the OHC and reduction in shear. There’s too much shear for the lemon areas in the Gulf right now, but the tropical Atlantic wave is likely to develop given how convectively active it continues to be and the CAG could very well produce 1-2 TCs (more likely 1 imo). Today the Euro ens/weeklies don’t have as much activity in the W Caribbean for midmonth as they had two days ago when I posted how much more active than climo it was. 0Z 10/4 EPS run for 0Z 10/15: note how busy it was in W Car 12Z 10/6 EPS run for 0Z 10/15: not as active in W Car 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Tuesday at 02:06 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:06 AM 5 hours ago, GaWx said: Today the Euro ens/weeklies don’t have as much activity in the W Caribbean for midmonth as they had two days ago when I posted how much more active than climo it was. 0Z 10/4 EPS run for 0Z 10/15: note how busy it was in W Car 12Z 10/6 EPS run for 0Z 10/15: not as active in W Car Yeah I think we’ll kind of see the signal ebb and flow the next few days. It’s still pretty far out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted Tuesday at 04:33 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:33 AM Another possible coastal low, non-tropical storm Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoAPPS Posted Tuesday at 01:27 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:27 PM I hope this isn't a dumb question, but is there a website similar to Tropical Tidbits or Pivotal Weather where I can see graphical representations of Google AI model products? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted Tuesday at 02:39 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:39 PM As of 11 am bulletin Jerry has formed in central Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Tuesday at 02:58 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:58 PM 1 hour ago, GoAPPS said: I hope this isn't a dumb question, but is there a website similar to Tropical Tidbits or Pivotal Weather where I can see graphical representations of Google AI model products? Not dumb at all. Weathernerds is also a great site where you can see the Google AI stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted Tuesday at 09:50 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:50 PM Wow I missed the Barry dude drama apparently, but wow, that explains why the pages are enjoyable again! Thanks to the wonderful staff here !! oh and finally can use this sign! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted Wednesday at 12:34 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:34 AM 12z Euro hits SEVA hard with rain and wind. 18z GFS is a little more out to sea. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted Wednesday at 03:08 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:08 AM It's crazy if this actually occurs. It's a cold front that has not happened yet, interacts with a boundary and then turns into a strong coastal low. We have had this before like a month ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Wednesday at 03:48 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:48 AM This one will be much more sprawling. There may be severe coastal impacts for a large area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted Wednesday at 04:12 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:12 AM GFS Model – MSLP & Precip (Rain/Frozen) for Southeast U.S. | Tropical Tidbits 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted Wednesday at 04:32 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:32 AM 19 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said: GFS Model – MSLP & Precip (Rain/Frozen) for Southeast U.S. | Tropical Tidbits It's so far out and so many things have to go right. I'm 50/50 on this thing actually happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silver Meteor Posted Wednesday at 04:47 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:47 AM 1 hour ago, Coach McGuirk said: It's crazy if this actually occurs. It's a cold front that has not happened yet, interacts with a boundary and then turns into a strong coastal low. We have had this before like a month ago. Not really "crazy." I'm an old man and I've seen a few Mid-Atlantic whoppers in October. In fact, from memory October is a much better month for nor'easters than November. Like March, October is a "change of seasons" month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted Wednesday at 11:04 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:04 AM SUBTROPICAL low for the e coast this week-early next week? Will this get some sort of NWS identity in the very near future if modeling continues on course (GFS/EC). ? This is where NWS-NHC step in. I accept their definition. It is tropical moisture late this week unleashed by a developing cold core aloft (7h-5h as example this weekend) and the cold air bordering the system to the west and north. . I've been out of NWS since 2018 but this might get an identity of some sort. Little question in my mind regarding potential high impact along the coasts for LI-NJ southward and maybe across to the SNE coast? I just want ECAI which has been consistent cyclically for an event since the 06z/4 cycle (see trop tidbits for `12z Monday Oct 13) 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted Wednesday at 03:47 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:47 PM On 10/7/2025 at 9:27 AM, GoAPPS said: I hope this isn't a dumb question, but is there a website similar to Tropical Tidbits or Pivotal Weather where I can see graphical representations of Google AI model products? https://deepmind.google.com/science/weatherlab I don't know if this is exactly what you're looking for but I like this site for deepmind tracks, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted yesterday at 02:58 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:58 AM GFS Model – MSLP & Precip (Rain/Frozen) for Southeast U.S. | Tropical Tidbits 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago Clock is ticking on Hurricane Season 2025 as far as U.S. threats. Biggest show in town will be the coastal low Sunday into early next week for the mid and north Atlantic coast. Lots of cool and dry air will be flowing into the central and eastern U.S. mid to late October. That will sort of put the lid on anything major approaching the Gulf coast. CAG looks to be under performing so far this season. Still time for something to lift north but I think the window is shut as far as anything major for U.S. Not to say the coming coastal storm will be insignificant. Lots of coastal damage looks to be incoming. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago So far, outlooks for the season seem to be heavily biased on the negative side... as some will say, underperforming, for US hits. Still time of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago I’m still a little under my numbers for the peak season forecast, but I still think we get something out of the CAG by the 20th. GFS tries to spin something up at 12z. There is an EPS signal too that’s modest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago How is 96L not named??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said: How is 96L not named??? It looks really well organized but it is apparently over like only 21C waters. So, is it still nontropical? If it has become subtropical, it needs to be named imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago It’s almost certainly going to get named (whether subtropical or tropical) imho based on this special TWO and Papin being in the house! 8PM TWO will likely rise substantially from this: Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 635 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Special outlook issued to update information about the gale-force low located several hundred miles northwest of the Azores. Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Jerry, located just southeast of the northern Leeward Islands. 1. North Atlantic (AL96): Updated: Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized today in association with a gale-force area of low pressure located several hundred miles to the northwest of the Azores. If these development trends continue, a subtropical or tropical storm could form as soon as tonight while the system moves slowly northwestward. Over the weekend, the system is expected to move over even cooler waters, ending its chances of further development. For more information on this system, including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service and Meteo France. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fq/fqnt50.lfpw.txt Forecaster Papin/Roberts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Folks, As weird as this season has been, it may get weirder! A look just now at historical genesis locations on record tells me that Invest 96L, already way up near 44.5N, could easily become the furthest N genesis for either a TC or STC as the furthest N on record is 42N (unnamed storm in 1952)! And it figures this would be named Karen, which would almost certainly mean that she’d be back in 2031, part of the Karen plan to bother us again : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1952_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Tropical_Storm_Five Edit: here we go! Like her or not, Karen, who complained to forecaster Papin about not being heard, looks to be coming, folks, with her chances up to 60%/60%! Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Jerry, located just southeast of the northern Leeward Islands. 1. North Atlantic (AL96): Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization with a small gale-force area of low pressure located several hundred miles to the northwest of the Azores. Only a small increase in organization could result in the formation of a subtropical or tropical storm as soon as tonight, as the system moves slowly northwestward. Over the weekend, the system is expected to move over cooler waters, ending its chances of further development. For more information on this system, including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service and Meteo France. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. Forecaster Papin She’s demanding her own thread, now! @NorthHillsWx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Crazy stuff but yeah, that’s probably a TC or STS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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