2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[GaWx]

On 10/5/2025 at 2:20 AM, WxWatcher007 said:

That’s by far the worst spot too given the OHC and reduction in shear. There’s too much shear for the lemon areas in the Gulf right now, but the tropical Atlantic wave is likely to develop given how convectively active it continues to be and the CAG could very well produce 1-2 TCs (more likely 1 imo). 
 

 Today the Euro ens/weeklies don’t have as much activity in the W Caribbean for midmonth as they had two days ago when I posted how much more active than climo it was.

0Z 10/4 EPS run for 0Z 10/15: note how busy it was in W Car

 

12Z 10/6 EPS run for 0Z 10/15: not as active in W Car

[WxWatcher007]

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Today the Euro ens/weeklies don’t have as much activity in the W Caribbean for midmonth as they had two days ago when I posted how much more active than climo it was.

0Z 10/4 EPS run for 0Z 10/15: note how busy it was in W Car

 

12Z 10/6 EPS run for 0Z 10/15: not as active in W Car

Yeah I think we’ll kind of see the signal ebb and flow the next few days. It’s still pretty far out. 

[Coach McGuirk]

Another possible coastal low, non-tropical storm Sunday. 

[GoAPPS]

I hope this isn't a dumb question, but is there a website similar to Tropical Tidbits or Pivotal Weather where I can see graphical representations of Google AI model products?

[wthrmn654]

As of 11 am bulletin Jerry has formed in central Atlantic

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, GoAPPS said:

I hope this isn't a dumb question, but is there a website similar to Tropical Tidbits or Pivotal Weather where I can see graphical representations of Google AI model products?

Not dumb at all. Weathernerds is also a great site where you can see the Google AI stuff. 

[wthrmn654]

Wow I missed the Barry dude drama apparently, but wow, that explains why the pages are enjoyable again!  

Thanks to the wonderful staff here !! 

oh and finally can use this sign! 

[Coach McGuirk]

12z Euro hits SEVA hard with rain and wind.  18z GFS is a little more out to sea. 

[Coach McGuirk]

It's crazy if this actually occurs.  It's a cold front that has not happened yet, interacts with a boundary and then turns into a strong coastal low.  We have had this before like a month ago. 

[WxWatcher007]

This one will be much more sprawling. There may be severe coastal impacts for a large area. 

[Coach McGuirk]

GFS Model – MSLP & Precip (Rain/Frozen) for Southeast U.S. | Tropical Tidbits

[Coach McGuirk]

19 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said:

GFS Model – MSLP & Precip (Rain/Frozen) for Southeast U.S. | Tropical Tidbits

It's so far out and so many things have to go right.  I'm 50/50 on this thing actually happening. 

[Silver Meteor]

1 hour ago, Coach McGuirk said:

It's crazy if this actually occurs.  It's a cold front that has not happened yet, interacts with a boundary and then turns into a strong coastal low.  We have had this before like a month ago. 

Not really "crazy." I'm an old man and I've seen a few Mid-Atlantic whoppers in October. In fact, from memory October is a much better month for nor'easters than November. Like March, October is a "change of seasons" month. 

[wdrag]

SUBTROPICAL low for the e coast this week-early next week?

Will this get some sort of NWS identity in the very near future if modeling continues on course (GFS/EC). ?

This is where NWS-NHC step in.  I accept their definition.  It is tropical moisture late this week unleashed by a developing cold core aloft (7h-5h as example this weekend) and the cold air bordering the system to the west and north. .

I've been out of NWS since 2018 but this might get an identity of some sort.  Little question in my mind regarding potential high impact along the coasts for LI-NJ southward and maybe across to the SNE coast?  I just want ECAI which has been consistent cyclically for an event since the 06z/4 cycle (see trop tidbits for `12z Monday Oct 13)