2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[WxWatcher007]

I don’t see anything possible other than homebrew/hybrid off the east coast in the next week or so.

[BarryStantonGBP]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I don’t see anything possible other than homebrew/hybrid off the east coast in the next week or so.

the atlantic said she'll get fookin pissed in mid September especially with that nonce humberto from the Notting Hill carnival

[BarryStantonGBP]

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

PACK IT UP GABRIELLE
THAT SLAG WILL CONTRIBUTE NOTHING TO THE SEASON

 

[nvck]

Interesting write-up about google's deepmind model, and how it did for erin: https://arstechnica.com/science/2025/08/googles-ai-model-just-nailed-the-forecast-for-the-strongest-atlantic-storm-this-year/

[BarryStantonGBP]

3 minutes ago, nvck said:

Interesting write-up about google's deepmind model, and how it did for erin: https://arstechnica.com/science/2025/08/googles-ai-model-just-nailed-the-forecast-for-the-strongest-atlantic-storm-this-year/

Told you DeepMinds is the way to go

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

OI OIIIII SEPTEMBER WILL POP OFF

 

TS FREQ:

ACE:

 

@GaWxGTFIH

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

OI OIIIII SEPTEMBER WILL POP OFF

 

TS FREQ:

ACE:

 

@GaWxGTFIH

 Today’s Euro Weekly run not only has the most active 9/15-21 ACE yet, it is the 1st run with 9/22-8 and that is even more active than 9/15-21! It has the quietest Sep week as the 1st one and the noisiest week as the 4th one. That resembles Sep of 2024 somewhat because then the quietest weeks of ACE in Sep were the 1st (0) and 3rd (0) while the 4th had the noisiest by far with AN ACE (18.1). The 2nd had 6.1.

Today’s EW ACE Sep progs vs very active 20 yr climo
1-7: 4.5 (.3)
8-14: 11.3 (.7)
15-21: 20.4 (1.3)
22-28: 22.4 (1.6)

 So, today’s vs climo is despite a very quiet 1st week and still BN 2nd week progging the 1st 4 weeks of Sept at 58.6, which compares to only 24.2 in 2024 and is ~the active 30 year climo of ~60.

To compare, look at what I posted on 8/27/24:

Today’s Euro Weeklies could be nicknamed “A Tale of Two Seasons”:

- Weeks 1-3 (9/2-22): remain only at ~50% of climo overall. These haven’t changed much for days other than a gradual decline.

- Week 4 (9/23-29/new week “on the block”): the first forecast for that week is for 120% of climo and it follows the prior week’s modest 70%. So, it’s seeing some kind of sudden change. If it were a reversion to climo, it would be only at 100%, not 120%. Also, this is the first time there has been any week at 120%+ since the 8/16 run. Will be interesting to follow.

[BarryStantonGBP]

6 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Today’s Euro Weekly run not only has the most active 9/15-21 ACE yet, it is the 1st run with 9/22-8 and that is even more active than 9/15-21! It has the quietest Sep week as the 1st one and the noisiest week as the 4th one. That resembles Sep of 2024 somewhat because then the quietest weeks of ACE in Sep were the 1st (0) and 3rd (0) while the 4th had the noisiest by far with AN ACE (18.1). The 2nd had 6.1.

Today’s EW ACE Sep progs vs very active 20 yr climo
1-7: 4.5 (.3)
8-14: 11.3 (.7)
15-21: 20.4 (1.3)
22-28: 22.4 (1.6)

 So, today’s vs climo is despite a very quiet 1st week and still BN 2nd week progging the 1st 4 weeks of Sept at 58.6, which compares to only 24.2 in 2024 and is ~the active 30 year climo of ~60.

To compare, look at what I posted on 8/27/24:

Today’s Euro Weeklies could be nicknamed “A Tale of Two Seasons”:

- Weeks 1-3 (9/2-22): remain only at ~50% of climo overall. These haven’t changed much for days other than a gradual decline.

- Week 4 (9/23-29/new week “on the block”): the first forecast for that week is for 120% of climo and it follows the prior week’s modest 70%. So, it’s seeing some kind of sudden change. If it were a reversion to climo, it would be only at 100%, not 120%. Also, this is the first time there has been any week at 120%+ since the 8/16 run. Will be interesting to follow.

That means gabby should pack it up

wait for storms after her innit 

[BarryStantonGBP]

 

[NorthHillsWx]

I know SSTs are still plenty warm obviously as we approach peak season, but sea temps have fallen across all of the western Atlantic and Caribbean and most of the gulf. A lot is due to Erin in the Atlantic but a lot is due to the train of fronts making very far south for this time of year. In NC many areas woke up to 50s this morning and 60’s made it down to the gulf coast. With more fronts on the way it begs the question of whether SSTs have already peaked in the western Atlantic and whether if a storm approaches that this will help mitigate high end intensity. It is quite literally a 180 from the start of season

[GaWx]

38 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I know SSTs are still plenty warm obviously as we approach peak season, but sea temps have fallen across all of the western Atlantic and Caribbean and most of the gulf. A lot is due to Erin in the Atlantic but a lot is due to the train of fronts making very far south for this time of year. In NC many areas woke up to 50s this morning and 60’s made it down to the gulf coast. With more fronts on the way it begs the question of whether SSTs have already peaked in the western Atlantic and whether if a storm approaches that this will help mitigate high end intensity. It is quite literally a 180 from the start of season

 Not that I want H hits in the SE because I don’t as I’d love a boring shutout! But keep in mind that the lowest August temp since 2001 in RDU, GSO, ATL, and most major stations in TN/NC/SC/GA and some in AL was in early to mid August of 2004. That month had a 2-3 week long stretch of BN temps. The very next month had 3 bad hurricanes hit FL. 

[BarryStantonGBP]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I know SSTs are still plenty warm obviously as we approach peak season, but sea temps have fallen across all of the western Atlantic and Caribbean and most of the gulf. A lot is due to Erin in the Atlantic but a lot is due to the train of fronts making very far south for this time of year. In NC many areas woke up to 50s this morning and 60’s made it down to the gulf coast. With more fronts on the way it begs the question of whether SSTs have already peaked in the western Atlantic and whether if a storm approaches that this will help mitigate high end intensity. It is quite literally a 180 from the start of season

should have gone to specsavers lad

waters in the gulf and wcar are warm

keep dreaming

[NorthHillsWx]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Not that I want H hits in the SE because I don’t as I’d love a boring shutout! But keep in mind that the lowest August temp since 2001 in RDU, GSO, ATL, and most major stations in TN/NC/SC/GA and some in AL was in early to mid August of 2004. That month had a 2-3 week long stretch of BN temps. The very next month had 3 bad hurricanes hit FL. 

Oh I am not saying a devastating storm won’t happen, it’s way too early to make that assumption, I am just stating the SW Atlantic and really now almost the entire western Atlantic has gone from the highest departures above normal to solidly below normal. From a sensible weather perspective with repeated fronts, there doesn’t appear to be anything that would brings those temps back up to where they were a few weeks ago. The gulf is still a bathtub but it is only running slightly AN now and most of the Caribbean is near normal now. If we keep the troughiness going in the east and with decreasing sun angle, it seems unlikely ocean temps in western Atlantic will recover to where they were earlier this season. Plenty warm for hurricanes, yes, but there may be a bit more of a limiting factor now than we had. Erin’s upwelling certainly played a huge role but these fronts and nor Easter’s are not typical of this time of year either. Something to watch during this tropical dead period 

[BarryStantonGBP]

5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Oh I am not saying a devastating storm won’t happen, it’s way too early to make that assumption, I am just stating the SW Atlantic and really now almost the entire western Atlantic has gone from the highest departures above normal to solidly below normal. From a sensible weather perspective with repeated fronts, there doesn’t appear to be anything that would brings those temps back up to where they were a few weeks ago. The gulf is still a bathtub but it is only running slightly AN now and most of the Caribbean is near normal now. If we keep the troughiness going in the east and with decreasing sun angle, it seems unlikely ocean temps in western Atlantic will recover to where they were earlier this season. Plenty warm for hurricanes, yes, but there may be a bit more of a limiting factor now than we had. Erin’s upwelling certainly played a huge role but these fronts and nor Easter’s are not typical of this time of year either. Something to watch during this tropical dead period 

“Normal”

”below normal”

[olafminesaw]

5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Oh I am not saying a devastating storm won’t happen, it’s way too early to make that assumption, I am just stating the SW Atlantic and really now almost the entire western Atlantic has gone from the highest departures above normal to solidly below normal. From a sensible weather perspective with repeated fronts, there doesn’t appear to be anything that would brings those temps back up to where they were a few weeks ago. The gulf is still a bathtub but it is only running slightly AN now and most of the Caribbean is near normal now. If we keep the troughiness going in the east and with decreasing sun angle, it seems unlikely ocean temps in western Atlantic will recover to where they were earlier this season. Plenty warm for hurricanes, yes, but there may be a bit more of a limiting factor now than we had. Erin’s upwelling certainly played a huge role but these fronts and nor Easter’s are not typical of this time of year either. Something to watch during this tropical dead period 

Feels like the kind of year for some kind of wonky subtropical landfall 

[BarryStantonGBP]

53 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Feels like the kind of year for some kind of wonky subtropical landfall 

 

59 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Oh I am not saying a devastating storm won’t happen, it’s way too early to make that assumption, I am just stating the SW Atlantic and really now almost the entire western Atlantic has gone from the highest departures above normal to solidly below normal. From a sensible weather perspective with repeated fronts, there doesn’t appear to be anything that would brings those temps back up to where they were a few weeks ago. The gulf is still a bathtub but it is only running slightly AN now and most of the Caribbean is near normal now. If we keep the troughiness going in the east and with decreasing sun angle, it seems unlikely ocean temps in western Atlantic will recover to where they were earlier this season. Plenty warm for hurricanes, yes, but there may be a bit more of a limiting factor now than we had. Erin’s upwelling certainly played a huge role but these fronts and nor Easter’s are not typical of this time of year either. Something to watch during this tropical dead period 

 

 

[NorthHillsWx]

Not to beat a dead horse but holy moly it’s quiet in the tropics 

[TradeWinds]

10 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Oh I am not saying a devastating storm won’t happen, it’s way too early to make that assumption, I am just stating the SW Atlantic and really now almost the entire western Atlantic has gone from the highest departures above normal to solidly below normal. From a sensible weather perspective with repeated fronts, there doesn’t appear to be anything that would brings those temps back up to where they were a few weeks ago. The gulf is still a bathtub but it is only running slightly AN now and most of the Caribbean is near normal now. If we keep the troughiness going in the east and with decreasing sun angle, it seems unlikely ocean temps in western Atlantic will recover to where they were earlier this season. Plenty warm for hurricanes, yes, but there may be a bit more of a limiting factor now than we had. Erin’s upwelling certainly played a huge role but these fronts and nor Easter’s are not typical of this time of year either. Something to watch during this tropical dead period 

SSTs took an absolute beating NC and north. Agree that current weather shows no opportunity for recovery. A hybrid storm north of NC could still happen but anything tropical would likely rapidly weaken. Water temps are in 60s in some places and oceanic heat content is very low. SC and south still has fuel. Offshore buoys in FL in mid 80s and still upper 80s in some places off FL east coast. Steering pattern still in protection mode from East.

[WEATHER53]

14 minutes ago, TradeWinds said:

SSTs took an absolute beating NC and north. Agree that current weather shows no opportunity for recovery. A hybrid storm north of NC could still happen but anything tropical would likely rapidly weaken. Water temps are in 60s in some places and oceanic heat content is very low. SC and south still has fuel. Offshore buoys in FL in mid 80s and still upper 80s in some places off FL east coast. Steering pattern still in protection mode from East.

When that much cooler water gets upwelled, what temp and depth is it upwelling from?

Thanks 

[TradeWinds]

15 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

When that much cooler water gets upwelled, what temp and depth is it upwelling from?

Thanks 

Everywhere I guess since the entire water column is below 78F.

[GaWx]

 Models/MJO suggest it should remain pretty quiet at least through the first week of Sept. Enjoy the chilly respite/rest while we have it as it may not remain that way for too long after that.

[WxWatcher007]

There's no doubt that Erin has left a substantial wake--even more than I originally anticipated, but I'm not sure the wake has reduced the threat to the U.S. much, if at all. 

My analysis here is mostly based on location. Erin safely recurved between 70 and 75W. That's a location where many WNW and especially NW moving systems find their way getting kicked OTS. If a system is moving NW at 72W, it probably isn't going to be a threat to the U.S., especially given the current predominant steering pattern.

If this wake were between 75 and 80W however, it'd signal to me that a bona fide threat to the U.S., a system moving through the Bahamas and just off the southeast coast, or a system moving northward from the very warm central and western Caribbean, would find a hostile thermodynamic environment. As it stands though, something hugging the coast is still likely to find enough positive SST anomalies and OHC to be a significant system if other atmospheric factors are also favorable. 

 

Let's say however that there is some hurricane that is moving westward or NW through that wake a month from now. A repeat of Florence for instance. 

It would certainly run into problems given its intensity moving toward the coast, but on final approach, it would find a more favorable thermodynamic environment. That opens the door to what we've seen frequently in recent years--intensification in the hours before landfall. It's an entirely different story if that wake is hugging the coast.

Perhaps there is additional cooling given the current pattern, though I'd argue that it's hard to get a sense of where this area will stand in about a month, objectively the waters are still warm enough to be conducive, depending on the intensity of the hurricane. 

So while for now at least we've probably avoided the worst case scenario along the east coast with certain tracks, we are nowhere close to eliminating other viable, bad, options. I just don't want people getting a false sense of security that Erin and this current upper level pattern will save us...as recent years have shown us we can be incredibly active even when environmental conditions suppress weeks of peak season. That is my expectation of this season as well. 

[GaWx]

 Though support has waned significantly since all but the GFS had it on Monday, the 0Z UKMET brought the E MDR AEW back from the dead (albeit with later TCG) with a minimal TS due to a strong pressure gradient below a rather strong Azores high moving WNW:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 15.6N  33.8W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 03.09.2025  156  15.6N  33.8W     1010            34
    0000UTC 04.09.2025  168  16.9N  35.9W     1011            35

——-

But 0Z GFS/Icon and probably CMC have nothing.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

12 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

There's no doubt that Erin has left a substantial wake--even more than I originally anticipated, but I'm not sure the wake has reduced the threat to the U.S. much, if at all. 

My analysis here is mostly based on location. Erin safely recurved between 70 and 75W. That's a location where many WNW and especially NW moving systems find their way getting kicked OTS. If a system is moving NW at 72W, it probably isn't going to be a threat to the U.S., especially given the current predominant steering pattern.

If this wake were between 75 and 80W however, it'd signal to me that a bona fide threat to the U.S., a system moving through the Bahamas and just off the southeast coast, or a system moving northward from the very warm central and western Caribbean, would find a hostile thermodynamic environment. As it stands though, something hugging the coast is still likely to find enough positive SST anomalies and OHC to be a significant system if other atmospheric factors are also favorable. 

 

Let's say however that there is some hurricane that is moving westward or NW through that wake a month from now. A repeat of Florence for instance. 

It would certainly run into problems given its intensity moving toward the coast, but on final approach, it would find a more favorable thermodynamic environment. That opens the door to what we've seen frequently in recent years--intensification in the hours before landfall. It's an entirely different story if that wake is hugging the coast.

Perhaps there is additional cooling given the current pattern, though I'd argue that it's hard to get a sense of where this area will stand in about a month, objectively the waters are still warm enough to be conducive, depending on the intensity of the hurricane. 

So while for now at least we've probably avoided the worst case scenario along the east coast with certain tracks, we are nowhere close to eliminating other viable, bad, options. I just don't want people getting a false sense of security that Erin and this current upper level pattern will save us...as recent years have shown us we can be incredibly active even when environmental conditions suppress weeks of peak season. That is my expectation of this season as well. 

Up here on Long Island Erin took the water temps from the high 70s to the high 60s temps recovered to the low 70s which is about normal for this time of year. Hurricanes in the north east derive their energy from the Gulf Stream and will weaken once above the north wall. It’s a function of the long shallow continental shelf. 

[Cholorob]

Up here on Long Island Erin took the water temps from the high 70s to the high 60s temps recovered to the low 70s which is about normal for this time of year. Hurricanes in the north east derive their energy from the Gulf Stream and will weaken once above the north wall. It’s a function of the long shallow continental shelf. 

This actually got me thinking a bit, I was reading an interesting article recently talking about how the Gulf Stream helps keep Europe warm and highlighting concerns about a weakening Gulf Stream. Conversely, I assume that if the Gulf Stream weakened significantly and ocean temperature were not made hotter as a result of other climatological changes, that this would actually reduce the number of very powerful storms hitting North America? Is the logic sound here?


.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

4 minutes ago, Cholorob said:

This actually got me thinking a bit, I was reading an interesting article recently talking about how the Gulf Stream helps keep Europe warm and highlighting concerns about a weakening Gulf Stream. Conversely, I assume that if the Gulf Stream weakened significantly and ocean temperature were not made hotter as a result of other climatological changes, that this would actually reduce the number of very powerful storms hitting North America? Is the logic sound here?


.

Yeah it’s fuels both hurricanes and the temperature differences that power nor’easters. Without the Gulf Stream the weather in the northeast would be much more mundane. 

[BarryStantonGBP]

OI LAZ @GaWx

 

You said this

Quote

This is consistent with what the Euro Weeklies have been showing since Tue of last week for the 2nd half of Sept: after a relatively inactive 1st 2 weeks of Sept, a reawakening for weeks 3 and maybe even more active in week 4. This is similar to what they forecasted well in advance exactly a year ago and it turned out to be spot on. It got the quiet late Aug to mid Sept correct as well as the active late Sept-early to mid Oct.

 

 

 

Does this mean we could see a shite Gabrielle then the others after that explode? The Euro Weeklies show significant ACE from the second half of sep onwards

Possibly an ACE hogger or two