2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[WxWatcher007]

I don’t see anything possible other than homebrew/hybrid off the east coast in the next week or so.

[BarryStantonGBP]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I don’t see anything possible other than homebrew/hybrid off the east coast in the next week or so.

the atlantic said she'll get fookin pissed in mid September especially with that nonce humberto from the Notting Hill carnival

[BarryStantonGBP]

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

PACK IT UP GABRIELLE
THAT SLAG WILL CONTRIBUTE NOTHING TO THE SEASON

 

[nvck]

Interesting write-up about google's deepmind model, and how it did for erin: https://arstechnica.com/science/2025/08/googles-ai-model-just-nailed-the-forecast-for-the-strongest-atlantic-storm-this-year/

[BarryStantonGBP]

3 minutes ago, nvck said:

Interesting write-up about google's deepmind model, and how it did for erin: https://arstechnica.com/science/2025/08/googles-ai-model-just-nailed-the-forecast-for-the-strongest-atlantic-storm-this-year/

Told you DeepMinds is the way to go

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

OI OIIIII SEPTEMBER WILL POP OFF

 

TS FREQ:

ACE:

 

@GaWxGTFIH

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

OI OIIIII SEPTEMBER WILL POP OFF

 

TS FREQ:

ACE:

 

@GaWxGTFIH

 Today’s Euro Weekly run not only has the most active 9/15-21 ACE yet, it is the 1st run with 9/22-8 and that is even more active than 9/15-21! It has the quietest Sep week as the 1st one and the noisiest week as the 4th one. That resembles Sep of 2024 somewhat because then the quietest weeks of ACE in Sep were the 1st (0) and 3rd (0) while the 4th had the noisiest by far with AN ACE (18.1). The 2nd had 6.1.

Today’s EW ACE Sep progs vs very active 20 yr climo
1-7: 4.5 (.3)
8-14: 11.3 (.7)
15-21: 20.4 (1.3)
22-28: 22.4 (1.6)

 So, today’s vs climo is despite a very quiet 1st week and still BN 2nd week progging the 1st 4 weeks of Sept at 58.6, which compares to only 24.2 in 2024 and is ~the active 30 year climo of ~60.

To compare, look at what I posted on 8/27/24:

Today’s Euro Weeklies could be nicknamed “A Tale of Two Seasons”:

- Weeks 1-3 (9/2-22): remain only at ~50% of climo overall. These haven’t changed much for days other than a gradual decline.

- Week 4 (9/23-29/new week “on the block”): the first forecast for that week is for 120% of climo and it follows the prior week’s modest 70%. So, it’s seeing some kind of sudden change. If it were a reversion to climo, it would be only at 100%, not 120%. Also, this is the first time there has been any week at 120%+ since the 8/16 run. Will be interesting to follow.

[BarryStantonGBP]

6 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Today’s Euro Weekly run not only has the most active 9/15-21 ACE yet, it is the 1st run with 9/22-8 and that is even more active than 9/15-21! It has the quietest Sep week as the 1st one and the noisiest week as the 4th one. That resembles Sep of 2024 somewhat because then the quietest weeks of ACE in Sep were the 1st (0) and 3rd (0) while the 4th had the noisiest by far with AN ACE (18.1). The 2nd had 6.1.

Today’s EW ACE Sep progs vs very active 20 yr climo
1-7: 4.5 (.3)
8-14: 11.3 (.7)
15-21: 20.4 (1.3)
22-28: 22.4 (1.6)

 So, today’s vs climo is despite a very quiet 1st week and still BN 2nd week progging the 1st 4 weeks of Sept at 58.6, which compares to only 24.2 in 2024 and is ~the active 30 year climo of ~60.

To compare, look at what I posted on 8/27/24:

Today’s Euro Weeklies could be nicknamed “A Tale of Two Seasons”:

- Weeks 1-3 (9/2-22): remain only at ~50% of climo overall. These haven’t changed much for days other than a gradual decline.

- Week 4 (9/23-29/new week “on the block”): the first forecast for that week is for 120% of climo and it follows the prior week’s modest 70%. So, it’s seeing some kind of sudden change. If it were a reversion to climo, it would be only at 100%, not 120%. Also, this is the first time there has been any week at 120%+ since the 8/16 run. Will be interesting to follow.

That means gabby should pack it up

wait for storms after her innit 

[BarryStantonGBP]

 

[NorthHillsWx]

I know SSTs are still plenty warm obviously as we approach peak season, but sea temps have fallen across all of the western Atlantic and Caribbean and most of the gulf. A lot is due to Erin in the Atlantic but a lot is due to the train of fronts making very far south for this time of year. In NC many areas woke up to 50s this morning and 60’s made it down to the gulf coast. With more fronts on the way it begs the question of whether SSTs have already peaked in the western Atlantic and whether if a storm approaches that this will help mitigate high end intensity. It is quite literally a 180 from the start of season

[GaWx]

38 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I know SSTs are still plenty warm obviously as we approach peak season, but sea temps have fallen across all of the western Atlantic and Caribbean and most of the gulf. A lot is due to Erin in the Atlantic but a lot is due to the train of fronts making very far south for this time of year. In NC many areas woke up to 50s this morning and 60’s made it down to the gulf coast. With more fronts on the way it begs the question of whether SSTs have already peaked in the western Atlantic and whether if a storm approaches that this will help mitigate high end intensity. It is quite literally a 180 from the start of season

 Not that I want H hits in the SE because I don’t as I’d love a boring shutout! But keep in mind that the lowest August temp since 2001 in RDU, GSO, ATL, and most major stations in TN/NC/SC/GA and some in AL was in early to mid August of 2004. That month had a 2-3 week long stretch of BN temps. The very next month had 3 bad hurricanes hit FL. 

[BarryStantonGBP]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I know SSTs are still plenty warm obviously as we approach peak season, but sea temps have fallen across all of the western Atlantic and Caribbean and most of the gulf. A lot is due to Erin in the Atlantic but a lot is due to the train of fronts making very far south for this time of year. In NC many areas woke up to 50s this morning and 60’s made it down to the gulf coast. With more fronts on the way it begs the question of whether SSTs have already peaked in the western Atlantic and whether if a storm approaches that this will help mitigate high end intensity. It is quite literally a 180 from the start of season

should have gone to specsavers lad

waters in the gulf and wcar are warm

keep dreaming

[NorthHillsWx]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Not that I want H hits in the SE because I don’t as I’d love a boring shutout! But keep in mind that the lowest August temp since 2001 in RDU, GSO, ATL, and most major stations in TN/NC/SC/GA and some in AL was in early to mid August of 2004. That month had a 2-3 week long stretch of BN temps. The very next month had 3 bad hurricanes hit FL. 

Oh I am not saying a devastating storm won’t happen, it’s way too early to make that assumption, I am just stating the SW Atlantic and really now almost the entire western Atlantic has gone from the highest departures above normal to solidly below normal. From a sensible weather perspective with repeated fronts, there doesn’t appear to be anything that would brings those temps back up to where they were a few weeks ago. The gulf is still a bathtub but it is only running slightly AN now and most of the Caribbean is near normal now. If we keep the troughiness going in the east and with decreasing sun angle, it seems unlikely ocean temps in western Atlantic will recover to where they were earlier this season. Plenty warm for hurricanes, yes, but there may be a bit more of a limiting factor now than we had. Erin’s upwelling certainly played a huge role but these fronts and nor Easter’s are not typical of this time of year either. Something to watch during this tropical dead period 

[BarryStantonGBP]

5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Oh I am not saying a devastating storm won’t happen, it’s way too early to make that assumption, I am just stating the SW Atlantic and really now almost the entire western Atlantic has gone from the highest departures above normal to solidly below normal. From a sensible weather perspective with repeated fronts, there doesn’t appear to be anything that would brings those temps back up to where they were a few weeks ago. The gulf is still a bathtub but it is only running slightly AN now and most of the Caribbean is near normal now. If we keep the troughiness going in the east and with decreasing sun angle, it seems unlikely ocean temps in western Atlantic will recover to where they were earlier this season. Plenty warm for hurricanes, yes, but there may be a bit more of a limiting factor now than we had. Erin’s upwelling certainly played a huge role but these fronts and nor Easter’s are not typical of this time of year either. Something to watch during this tropical dead period 

“Normal”

”below normal”

[olafminesaw]

5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Oh I am not saying a devastating storm won’t happen, it’s way too early to make that assumption, I am just stating the SW Atlantic and really now almost the entire western Atlantic has gone from the highest departures above normal to solidly below normal. From a sensible weather perspective with repeated fronts, there doesn’t appear to be anything that would brings those temps back up to where they were a few weeks ago. The gulf is still a bathtub but it is only running slightly AN now and most of the Caribbean is near normal now. If we keep the troughiness going in the east and with decreasing sun angle, it seems unlikely ocean temps in western Atlantic will recover to where they were earlier this season. Plenty warm for hurricanes, yes, but there may be a bit more of a limiting factor now than we had. Erin’s upwelling certainly played a huge role but these fronts and nor Easter’s are not typical of this time of year either. Something to watch during this tropical dead period 

Feels like the kind of year for some kind of wonky subtropical landfall 

[BarryStantonGBP]

53 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Feels like the kind of year for some kind of wonky subtropical landfall 

 

59 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Oh I am not saying a devastating storm won’t happen, it’s way too early to make that assumption, I am just stating the SW Atlantic and really now almost the entire western Atlantic has gone from the highest departures above normal to solidly below normal. From a sensible weather perspective with repeated fronts, there doesn’t appear to be anything that would brings those temps back up to where they were a few weeks ago. The gulf is still a bathtub but it is only running slightly AN now and most of the Caribbean is near normal now. If we keep the troughiness going in the east and with decreasing sun angle, it seems unlikely ocean temps in western Atlantic will recover to where they were earlier this season. Plenty warm for hurricanes, yes, but there may be a bit more of a limiting factor now than we had. Erin’s upwelling certainly played a huge role but these fronts and nor Easter’s are not typical of this time of year either. Something to watch during this tropical dead period 

 

 

[NorthHillsWx]

Not to beat a dead horse but holy moly it’s quiet in the tropics 

[TradeWinds]

10 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Oh I am not saying a devastating storm won’t happen, it’s way too early to make that assumption, I am just stating the SW Atlantic and really now almost the entire western Atlantic has gone from the highest departures above normal to solidly below normal. From a sensible weather perspective with repeated fronts, there doesn’t appear to be anything that would brings those temps back up to where they were a few weeks ago. The gulf is still a bathtub but it is only running slightly AN now and most of the Caribbean is near normal now. If we keep the troughiness going in the east and with decreasing sun angle, it seems unlikely ocean temps in western Atlantic will recover to where they were earlier this season. Plenty warm for hurricanes, yes, but there may be a bit more of a limiting factor now than we had. Erin’s upwelling certainly played a huge role but these fronts and nor Easter’s are not typical of this time of year either. Something to watch during this tropical dead period 

SSTs took an absolute beating NC and north. Agree that current weather shows no opportunity for recovery. A hybrid storm north of NC could still happen but anything tropical would likely rapidly weaken. Water temps are in 60s in some places and oceanic heat content is very low. SC and south still has fuel. Offshore buoys in FL in mid 80s and still upper 80s in some places off FL east coast. Steering pattern still in protection mode from East.

[WEATHER53]

14 minutes ago, TradeWinds said:

SSTs took an absolute beating NC and north. Agree that current weather shows no opportunity for recovery. A hybrid storm north of NC could still happen but anything tropical would likely rapidly weaken. Water temps are in 60s in some places and oceanic heat content is very low. SC and south still has fuel. Offshore buoys in FL in mid 80s and still upper 80s in some places off FL east coast. Steering pattern still in protection mode from East.

When that much cooler water gets upwelled, what temp and depth is it upwelling from?

Thanks 

[TradeWinds]

15 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

When that much cooler water gets upwelled, what temp and depth is it upwelling from?

Thanks 

Everywhere I guess since the entire water column is below 78F.