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2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season


BarryStantonGBP
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24 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

@GaWx where's your excellent piece on RONI and US landfalls? Do you have numbers for this season and where that stacks up with recent years? Working on my peak season forecast today and would like to include that in my final section. 

 I’ll try to find it with a search on “RONI”.

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47 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

@GaWx where's your excellent piece on RONI and US landfalls? Do you have numbers for this season and where that stacks up with recent years? Working on my peak season forecast today and would like to include that in my final section. 


 Thanks. I just found it. This is what I posted on 5/21/24 and thus this analysis doesn’t include what happened in 2024, a really bad year with it scoring 5G/0E. 2024’s ASO RONI was -0.75:

—————————

I just did an analysis of CONUS landfalls for RONI ASO -0.50 to -1.00 vs sub -1.00. E = east coast and G = Gulf coast including FL Keys; if storm landfalled on both as a H, I counted it as 1/2 E and 1/2 G (1995’s Erin and 2022’s Ian)

ASO RONI -0.50 to -1.00: every season at least 1
1954: 3 (3E)
1955: 2 (2E)
1964: 4 (2E, 2G)
1970: 1 (1G)
1983: 1 (1G)
1995: 2 (0.5E, 1.5G)
1999: 3 (1E, 2G)
2011: 1 (1E)
2017: 3 (3G)
2021: 2 (2G)
AVG: 2.20 (0.95E, 1.25G)


ASO RONI sub -1.00: less active avg despite 2020
1973: 0
1975: 1 (1G)
1988: 1 (1G)
1998: 3 (1E, 2G)
2007: 1 (1G)
2010: 0
2016: 2 (1E, 1G)
2020: 6 (1E, 5G)
2022: 2 (1.5E, 0.5G)
AVG: 1.78 (0.50E, 1.28G)

Analysis of ASO RONI wk vs mod+:
-sig. more CONUS H landfalls (100%/70% had 1+/2+)
-sig. more E coast landfalls (60%/30% had 1+/2+)
-slightly fewer G coast landfalls due to 2020 being active
-E being nearly as active as G for wk is relatively high for E
-2020 ASO is mod+ per RONI but is only wk per ONI

H tracks:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/

RONI: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

 

 

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17 minutes ago, GaWx said:


 Thanks. I just found it. This is what I posted on 5/21/24 and thus this analysis doesn’t include what happened in 2024, a really bad year with it scoring 5G. 2024’s ASO RONI was -0.75:

—————————

I just did an analysis of CONUS landfalls for RONI ASO -0.50 to -1.00 vs sub -1.00. E = east coast and G = Gulf coast including FL Keys; if storm landfalled on both as a H, I counted it as 1/2 E and 1/2 G (1995’s Erin and 2022’s Ian)

ASO RONI -0.50 to -1.00: every season at least 1
1954: 3 (3E)
1955: 2 (2E)
1964: 4 (2E, 2G)
1970: 1 (1G)
1983: 1 (1G)
1995: 2 (0.5E, 1.5G)
1999: 3 (1E, 2G)
2011: 1 (1E)
2017: 3 (3G)
2021: 2 (2G)
AVG: 2.20 (0.95E, 1.25G)


ASO RONI sub -1.00: less active avg despite 2020
1973: 0
1975: 1 (1G)
1988: 1 (1G)
1998: 3 (1E, 2G)
2007: 1 (1G)
2010: 0
2016: 2 (1E, 1G)
2020: 6 (1E, 5G)
2022: 2 (1.5E, 0.5G)
AVG: 1.78 (0.50E, 1.28G)

Analysis of ASO RONI wk vs mod+:
-sig. more CONUS H landfalls (100%/70% had 1+/2+)
-sig. more E coast landfalls (60%/30% had 1+/2+)
-slightly fewer G coast landfalls due to 2020 being active
-E being nearly as active as G for wk is relatively high for E
-2020 ASO is mod+ per RONI but is only wk per ONI

H tracks:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/

RONI: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

 

 

Thanks. I wish I had the JJA number, so at least I had more confidence in inferring what the ASO number would be. 

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6 hours ago, GaWx said:

As shown on the image below, one can see how rapidly 2025’s ACE has increased in relation to others since 1951: it’s now 16th highest of the last 75

IMG_4397.thumb.png.1ca92a215087efb43841231c2f40defa.png

Things can change very quickly.  People like to jump on current sentiment and extend it over the entire upcoming season.  It is also pretty scary seeing how fast some of these storms have been escalating these past few years.

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1 minute ago, AStorms13 said:

Things can change very quickly.  People like to jump on current sentiment and extend it over the entire upcoming season.  It is also pretty scary seeing how fast some of these storms have been escalating these past few years.

Yeah, last year Beryl skyrocketed ACE in early July but then it pretty much flatlined until late September when Helene showed up. 

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LazzaWX said this on Storm2k, what are your thoughts?

 

 

LarryWx
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Re: 2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

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#525 by LarryWx » Wed Aug 20, 2025 12:36 pm 

Based on the ensembles and European Weeklies, I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s quiet for a couple of weeks starting August 24th. If so, this could somewhat resemble 2024’s very quiet 19 day period (late August through early Sept.). If so, I’d then be expecting an active 2nd half of Sept. and probably into early Oct. (also similar to 2024 ).

Other opinions?
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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LarryWx S2K Supporter
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Re: 2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

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#526 by LarryWx » Wed Aug 20, 2025 3:35 pm 

The brand new Euro Weeklies continue with yesterday’s run’s idea of a more active 3rd week of Sept than the first half, somewhat resembling 2024 especially considering the possible relative quiet for next week based on quiet ensembles:

Here are today’s EW ACE forecasts:
8/25-31: 9-10
9/1-7: 4
9/8-14: 10-11
9/15-21: 13-15

Edit: Keep in mind that the EW did well last year with the lull.
 


 

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4 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

LazzaWX said this on Storm2k, what are your thoughts?

 

 

 

LarryWx
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Re: 2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

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#525 by LarryWx » Wed Aug 20, 2025 12:36 pm 

Based on the ensembles and European Weeklies, I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s quiet for a couple of weeks starting August 24th. If so, this could somewhat resemble 2024’s very quiet 19 day period (late August through early Sept.). If so, I’d then be expecting an active 2nd half of Sept. and probably into early Oct. (also similar to 2024 ).

Other opinions?
3 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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LarryWx S2K Supporter
S2K SupporterPosts: 6467 Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm Location: GA

Re: 2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

  •  

#526 by LarryWx » Wed Aug 20, 2025 3:35 pm 

The brand new Euro Weeklies continue with yesterday’s run’s idea of a more active 3rd week of Sept than the first half, somewhat resembling 2024 especially considering the possible relative quiet for next week based on quiet ensembles:

Here are today’s EW ACE forecasts:
8/25-31: 9-10
9/1-7: 4
9/8-14: 10-11
9/15-21: 13-15

Edit: Keep in mind that the EW did well last year with the lull.
 


 

Barry, I agree because that’s me. :)

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