GaWx Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago As shown on the image below, one can see how rapidly 2025’s ACE has increased in relation to others since 1951: it’s now 16th highest of the last 75 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 5 hours ago Author Share Posted 5 hours ago 3 minutes ago, GaWx said: As shown on the image below, one can see how rapidly 2025’s ACE has increased in relation to others since 1951: it’s now 16th highest of the last 75 Now just wait for 99L to contribute nothing if he turns into fernand 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago @GaWx where's your excellent piece on RONI and US landfalls? Do you have numbers for this season and where that stacks up with recent years? Working on my peak season forecast today and would like to include that in my final section. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 5 hours ago Author Share Posted 5 hours ago 7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: @GaWx where's your excellent piece on RONI and US landfalls? Do you have numbers for this season and where that stacks up with recent years? Working on my peak season forecast today and would like to include that in my final section. I have 20-12-5, 190 ACE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 3 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said: I have 20-12-5, 190 ACE My annual forecast just looks at the peak, which is Aug 20-Oct 20. Hope to have it out later today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 5 hours ago Author Share Posted 5 hours ago 13 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: My annual forecast just looks at the peak, which is Aug 20-Oct 20. Hope to have it out later today. I just feel major CONUS blows might be at the second half of the peak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 24 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: @GaWx where's your excellent piece on RONI and US landfalls? Do you have numbers for this season and where that stacks up with recent years? Working on my peak season forecast today and would like to include that in my final section. I’ll try to find it with a search on “RONI”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 47 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: @GaWx where's your excellent piece on RONI and US landfalls? Do you have numbers for this season and where that stacks up with recent years? Working on my peak season forecast today and would like to include that in my final section. Thanks. I just found it. This is what I posted on 5/21/24 and thus this analysis doesn’t include what happened in 2024, a really bad year with it scoring 5G/0E. 2024’s ASO RONI was -0.75: ————————— I just did an analysis of CONUS landfalls for RONI ASO -0.50 to -1.00 vs sub -1.00. E = east coast and G = Gulf coast including FL Keys; if storm landfalled on both as a H, I counted it as 1/2 E and 1/2 G (1995’s Erin and 2022’s Ian) ASO RONI -0.50 to -1.00: every season at least 1 1954: 3 (3E) 1955: 2 (2E) 1964: 4 (2E, 2G) 1970: 1 (1G) 1983: 1 (1G) 1995: 2 (0.5E, 1.5G) 1999: 3 (1E, 2G) 2011: 1 (1E) 2017: 3 (3G) 2021: 2 (2G) AVG: 2.20 (0.95E, 1.25G) ASO RONI sub -1.00: less active avg despite 2020 1973: 0 1975: 1 (1G) 1988: 1 (1G) 1998: 3 (1E, 2G) 2007: 1 (1G) 2010: 0 2016: 2 (1E, 1G) 2020: 6 (1E, 5G) 2022: 2 (1.5E, 0.5G) AVG: 1.78 (0.50E, 1.28G) Analysis of ASO RONI wk vs mod+: -sig. more CONUS H landfalls (100%/70% had 1+/2+) -sig. more E coast landfalls (60%/30% had 1+/2+) -slightly fewer G coast landfalls due to 2020 being active -E being nearly as active as G for wk is relatively high for E -2020 ASO is mod+ per RONI but is only wk per ONI H tracks:https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/ RONI: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 17 minutes ago, GaWx said: Thanks. I just found it. This is what I posted on 5/21/24 and thus this analysis doesn’t include what happened in 2024, a really bad year with it scoring 5G. 2024’s ASO RONI was -0.75: ————————— I just did an analysis of CONUS landfalls for RONI ASO -0.50 to -1.00 vs sub -1.00. E = east coast and G = Gulf coast including FL Keys; if storm landfalled on both as a H, I counted it as 1/2 E and 1/2 G (1995’s Erin and 2022’s Ian) ASO RONI -0.50 to -1.00: every season at least 1 1954: 3 (3E) 1955: 2 (2E) 1964: 4 (2E, 2G) 1970: 1 (1G) 1983: 1 (1G) 1995: 2 (0.5E, 1.5G) 1999: 3 (1E, 2G) 2011: 1 (1E) 2017: 3 (3G) 2021: 2 (2G) AVG: 2.20 (0.95E, 1.25G) ASO RONI sub -1.00: less active avg despite 2020 1973: 0 1975: 1 (1G) 1988: 1 (1G) 1998: 3 (1E, 2G) 2007: 1 (1G) 2010: 0 2016: 2 (1E, 1G) 2020: 6 (1E, 5G) 2022: 2 (1.5E, 0.5G) AVG: 1.78 (0.50E, 1.28G) Analysis of ASO RONI wk vs mod+: -sig. more CONUS H landfalls (100%/70% had 1+/2+) -sig. more E coast landfalls (60%/30% had 1+/2+) -slightly fewer G coast landfalls due to 2020 being active -E being nearly as active as G for wk is relatively high for E -2020 ASO is mod+ per RONI but is only wk per ONI H tracks:https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/ RONI: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt Thanks. I wish I had the JJA number, so at least I had more confidence in inferring what the ASO number would be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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